Articles List

Articles List

Wheat: Bottoming Out Over The Coming Year

We have revised our price forecasts downward and now believe that CBOT wheat prices will form a base over the next six months in preparation for a move higher in 2017. The global market will turn to deficit next year after four consecutive years of large surpluses, supporting a bottom-out in prices. Out to 2020, prices will only rise moderately as global stocks are at all-time highs, providing a buffer to future market tightness.

Emphasis On Healthcare To Boost Regional Medicine Sales

The Middle East and North Africa's (MENA)'s pharmaceutical markets will remain a key area of opportunity for multinational drugmakers. The main upward trends over the coming years will be increasing healthcare privatisation and greater public-private health partnerships - which should provide momentum for drug sales. However, austerity budgets from lower oil export revenues will cause governments to cut back on high-value drug spending and encourage generic substitution - placing downward pressure on revenue earning opportunities for drugmakers.

Week Ahead: Sovereign Downgrade Weighing On TRY

In the week ahead we will be closely monitoring data releases from Turkey, following Moody's sovereign rating downgrade to below investment grade on September 24.

Acquisitions Will Not Overcome Market Fragmentation

Two new acquisitions chime with our view of increasing consolidation in the Baltics and Balkans regions. However, SBB and Cgates are acquiring relatively small players and we do not expect significant changes in market dynamics in the medium term, despite such acquisitions being essential to the expansion strategies of both operators.

Week Ahead: Persistent Low Oil Prices Will Temper Ghana Growth

In the week ahead, we are awaiting Ghana Q2 GDP growth figures. After a fairly robust 4.9% y-o-y Q116 reading, we expect a moderately slower pace of expansion in the months ahead. Low oil prices will have constrained government expenditure as it has strived to abide by the IMF's spending limits, and investors remain cautious given the risks related to the upcoming December presidential elections. This underpins our view for 4.1% real GDP growth in 2016.

2016 Election: 25% Chance Of 'Extreme' Policy Formation

Our core view of gridlock in Washington in 2017-18 following the November 8 election suggests broad macroeconomic policy continuity going forward. However, there is a 25% chance of a 'sweep' by either the Democrats or Republicans in the election, an outcome that could lead to a significant shift in policy. In addition to this risk, we believe that the potential for Trump to use 'executive orders' to steer US policy presents major risks that are being broadly underestimated.

MENA Power RRI: GCC, Egypt And Iran Offer Biggest Rewards

The biggest GCC countries continue to dominate our Risk/Reward Index for the MENA power sector due to their relatively low risk profiles and significant potential for industry growth - despite their fiscal consolidation efforts amid low oil prices.

Gamesa Wins Wind Project Contract

Spanish wind turbine maker Gamesa has been selected by Indian firm ReNew Power to provide engineering, procurement and construction services for a 50MW wind project in Bijapur, Karnataka, India.

Tata Export Goal Supported By Robust CV Demand

We expect strong demand for both light and heavy commercial vehicles in Tunisia, Vietnam, Ecuador, Brazil and the Sub-Saharan African region to support Tata's plan to double overseas sales of commercial vehicles in the next two years.

MENA MGR Outlook: Room For Supermarkets & Hypermarkets To Develop

The regional mass grocery retail sector is largely underdeveloped, with the exception of a few wealthier markets in the GCC. We are starting to see increased levels of investment in the industry, as well as some markets become more open to foreign ownership of retailers. Combined with rising incomes, this should help spur formalisation from a low base throughout the MENA region.