Articles List

Asia Power: Global Outperformance Maintained

Asian power markets outperform the global risk/reward index, as strong opportunities are balanced against relatively lower risks. Within the region, we highlight Malaysia and Australia as notable investment bright spots.

Tax Review Increases Upstream Risk

Stricter tax laws, alongside oil price uncertainty and tightening onshore drilling laws will pose considerable headwinds to new project investments in Australia, lending support to our view for the pace of oil and gas production growth to slow markedly beyond 2020.

Regional Growth Stabilisation Ahead

Real GDP growth across Asia slowed slightly over the past year, and we estimate the region grew by 4.6%, compared to 4.8% registered in 2015. Despite the minor slowdown, which was to a large degree led by China, Asia continues to register the strongest growth rates when compared to other regions. Looking over the next two years, we forecast growth will remain stable at 4.6% in 2017, after which economic activity will decelerate to 4.4% in 2018.

Coca-Cola Adapting To Health Conscious Consumers

One of our key themes for the year is playing out in Brazil as Coca-Cola launches several products with low or no sugar as well as smaller can sizes as governments and consumers become more concerned with the drawbacks of high soft drink consumption. Further, the company is lining up significant investments for the coming year, which is consistent with our view that the Brazilian economy has bottomed out and is due for a rebound over the next five years.

Bottom Line Has Bottomed Out

Strengthening fundamentals will drive upstream performance, counteracting any downstream weakness and helping oil majors' balance sheets shore up over 2017.

Wari-Tigo Deal A New MFS Expansion Paradigm

The most interesting aspect of the sale of Tigo Senegal is the buyer, the Wari Group. It is a digital financial services platform, whose aim is to improve its position in the market by becoming an operator, and targeting Orange and its successful Orange Money service. As such, this deal is the reverse of traditional MFS expansion strategies and warrants monitoring.

Rising Tensions With US, But No Break With Nuclear Deal

Tensions between Iran and the United States will escalate over the coming quarters as Donald Trump takes a far harder line with Tehran. We expect further sanctions to be put in place by the United States; however, the nuclear deal will remain intact. The worsening relations will harm President Hassan Rouhani's re-election in May 2017, but, given the lack of a unifying opposition candidate, we still expect him to win.

Recovery Still Years Away, Despite Oil Output Uptick

The Libyan economy will remain in a state of crisis over the coming quarters, as political instability, soaring inflation and high unemployment limit consumption and investment. While oil output increases are a short-term positive for growth, sustained recovery will remain off the cards until a lasting peace deal is in place.

Diabetes Treatments To Drive Growth In 2017

Eli Lilly's diverse portfolio of new products will continue to support its growth over the coming quarters. While its Alzheimer's disease treatment solanezumab failed to meet its primary endpoint in the Phase III EXPEDITION 3 clinical trial, a setback to the firm, Eli Lilly's 2017 revenue growth remains intact with Jardiance (empagliflozin) and Trulicity (dulaglutide) performing well. Given its exposure to the US, with over half of its 2016 revenues generated from the market, initiatives under President Donald Trump ranging from lowering taxes to drug pricing will be a key factor shaping Eli Lilly's prospects.

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