Articles List

Brexit Risk To Energy Trade

The reversion of trading relationships to WTO rules, as purported in a 'hard Brexit' scenario raises the risk of additional costs for trade of energy products between the UK. This additional cost burden, although not large, would impact an industry already suffering from significant pull backs in investment.

BMS Results Highlight Overreliance On Core Growth Drivers

Bristol-Myers Squibb's Q117 financial results highlight the importance of the company's core revenue generators, namely Opdivo and Eliquis, in maintaining a robust growth outlook. Impressive revenue gains within the company's immuno-oncology and cardiovascular portfolios will bode well for Bristol-Myers Squibb's outlook for the remainder of 2017; however, competition from rival brands will continue to threaten their ability to gain further market share. Efforts to diversify through launches in new therapeutic areas as well as expanding indications in existing classes will prove key to the company's long-term growth prospects.

Cross-Spectrum Alliance Would Shake Up Political Outlook

A potential alliance between the centre-left Social Democrats and the anti-immigration Danish People's Party would reshape Danish politics. While this is still a matter of speculation, it makes clear that more restrictive Danish immigration policy is here to stay, with all of the main parties across the spectrum largely agreed on tighter legislation.

Credit Squeeze A Headwind To Vehicle Sales In 2017

We are revising down our passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle sales forecast for 2017 to growth of 8.5% and 12.3% respectively as a result of the adverse impact the cap on interest rates in Kenya is having on the availability of credit for vehicle financing in the country. Beyond 2017, vehicle sales will experience stronger growth as government loosens the lending cap following the August 2017 general election and credit availability improves.

Steel: Limited Further Downside Until Late 2017

Continued Chinese fiscal support to the infrastructure and construction sectors will prevent a significant demand collapse for steel in 2017, although the soaring demand and prices seen in Q117 will not recur. This will ensure that prices see limited further downside in 2017 before the Chinese economy eventually peaks in the coming months.

Return Of The Avengers A Growing Probability

The longer the federal government takes to fulfil its obligations under the Amnesty Program, the greater the risk of resurgent militant campaign targeting petroleum infrastructure and dragging down oil production.

Gamble Unlikely To Pay Off

Czech Republic's Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka's decision to dissolve the coalition government just six months prior the next parliamentary elections will likely backfire. It will play into the hands of Andrej Babis, finance minister and head of the anti-establishment party, Action for Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO).

Commercial Vehicles To Ride Investment Uptick

A strong macroeconomic environment conducive to business investment will mean commercial vehicle sales outperform passenger car sales in Belgium in 2017. Passenger cars will still perform strongly, however, thanks to low borrowing costs, low unemployment and rising confidence.

Pfizer Optimism Increases As Political Landscape Evolves

The combination of falling sales, a stagnant share price and upcoming patent expiries is causing concern among Pfizer shareholders. They want more productivity from the firm's R&D pipeline or, failing that, a transformative merger or acquisition to increase returns on their investments. The former is extremely difficult, while the latter is contingent on the right target being available at a fair value in an accommodating political landscape - an alignment of variables that has eluded Pfizer's senior management for several years.

Emerging Markets Key For Unilever Spreads Unit Sale

We expect to see strong interest in Unilever's margarine and spreads unit, due to a reasonable valuation and opportunities for further growth in emerging markets. The decline in sales in developed markets will remain a challenge for any potential investor, as consumers have moved away from spread products as an everyday staple. Potential offers could come from other dairy companies, private equity firms or even another bid from Kraft Heinz.

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