Articles List

Currency Roundup: TRY To Massively Underperform, RUB Recovery To Continue

The Turkish lira was Europe's worst performing currency in 2016, and further weakening is on the cards in 2017 as the central bank hesitates to hike rates. Risks that the UK is headed towards a 'hard Brexit' will continue to put downward pressure on sterling in the short term. On the opposite side of the spectrum lies the Russian rouble, which we expect to continue strengthening on the back of tight monetary policy and higher oil prices.

Diverse Region To Provide Strong Opportunities For Cardiovascular Treatments

The cardiovascular therapeutic market will continue to see growth in South East Asia (SEA). Underlying demand for cardiovascular pharmaceutical treatments is robust, as the confluence of an ageing population and increasingly sedentary lifestyles in the region heightens the risk of cardiovascular conditions. This exacerbates the population's vulnerability to the disease, with growing clinical evidence suggesting that patients with heart disease in SEA are younger than their US and European counterparts. To leverage these opportunities, multinational pharmaceutical firms will have to adopt country-specific strategies, given the differences in healthcare access and the cardiovascular drugs listed on the national formularies, as well as varying levels of competition.

Personal Care Majors Splashing Out On Niche Skincare Brands

Our view that 2017 will be another big year for M&A activity in the personal care market is already playing out, with L'Oréal kicking off the acquisition drive by purchasing three US skincare brands for USD1.3bn. We highlight robust growth in the US, the world's largest personal care market, where niche skincare brands that have a strong emphasis on health, convenience and online audiences will continue to attract attention from global majors as potential acquisition targets.

Six Sectors To Watch In Sub-Saharan Africa

Several sectors in major SSA economies are poised for significant expansion in the coming years, even in an environment of structurally lower commodity prices. We highlight six such opportunities across the region including Kenya infrastructure and autos, Côte d'Ivoire power and consumer sectors and Ethiopia manufacturing and agribusiness.

Push For Clean Baseload To Boost Biomass And Nuclear

Finland's push to decarbonise its power sector by phasing out coal by 2030 will benefit the country's biomass sector over the next decade, in line with the government's aim to boost the forest-related industry. Over the multi-decade horizon, Finland's power sector agenda will be focused around boosting nuclear power output, as the country looks to lower its import dependence and capitalise on the opportunities emerging from the Nord Pool's shrinking baseload power supply.

The State Of Play In 2017

As we move headlong into 2017, we are bracing ourselves for another tumultuous year, with ongoing political shifts set to send tremors through economies and financial markets globally. Among other things, we expect a trade skirmish rather than a trade war; a slow and painful recovery for emerging markets; a beleaguered Chinese yuan; and a weak euro.

Prices Attractive, But Content Key To Boost Revenues

Movistar's greater focus on its cable operations as well as a competitive pricing strategy is yielding subscriber growth dividends for the operator. However, to translate subscriber growth into robust revenue and ARPU growth, the operator will have to more extensively leverage content in its pay-TV business, as it is doing in its mobile and fixed businesses

China Set To Expand MENA Market Share

Chinese investment in the infrastructure markets of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries will continue to gather pace in the coming years, driven by growth opportunities across MENA, China's 'Going Global' economic policy, and increasing trade links.

Cocoa: Trading Sideways Over 2017 Before Long-Term Uptrend

We have revised our cocoa price forecasts downwards and now expect prices to bottom and trade sideways over H117 before strengthening from Q417 onwards as fundamentals tighten. Beyond 2017, cocoa prices will trend gradually higher as the market will remain balanced until recording a larger deficit in 2021, which will keep prices supported. West Africa will outperform in terms of output growth to 2021, albeit due to base effects, while Russia and Indonesia are bright spots for consumption.

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