Articles List

Non-Communicable Risk Factors Highlight Drugmaker Opportunities

The prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases is rising globally due to poor lifestyle habits and ageing populations. These factors differ between regions, highlighting differing demand for specific medicines. A thorough knowledge of these regional variations will provide multinational pharmaceutical firms with the ability to optimise their strategy based on product demand. We note that industry-specific factors such as the regulatory environment are equally influential for new product launches.

Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation

The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision 2030, a successful listing would boost investor confidence and fast-track the diversification process, while bolstering Mohammed bin Salman's political capital. Failure to deliver on the IPO would put a halt to the reform drive and weaken the position of liberal forces in the kingdom.

Renewables Auctions In Full Swing

We see few signs that the uptick in the use of reverse capacity auctions in the renewable sector is set to slow - boosting the cost competitiveness of renewable energy.

Otsuka Targets Non-Stimulant Segment Of Growing ADHD Drugs Market

This deal will provide Otsuka with a late-stage candidate targeting the growing ADHD drugs market. If successful in Phase III and subsequently approved, centanafadine, as an alternative to the commonly used stimulants, will most likely be used as a second-line therapy. As well as expanding its CNS portfolio, this deal has the potential to push up non-domestic sales for Otsuka at a time when the Japanese pharmaceutical market is seeing downward pressure from cost containment measures and the rising penetration of generic drugs. Risks include the high failure rate of CNS drug development and centafadine not being the only new non-stimulant for ADHD in the pipeline.

Turkey With More To Lose From Spat With Netherlands

The diplomatic crisis between Turkey and the Netherlands will serve the short-term interests of Turkey's ruling party ahead of a constitutional referendum on April 16, although it also comes with potentially significant long-term economic costs. In the Netherlands, the spat will give some momentum to the far-right Party For Freedom ahead of March 15 general elections, although not enough to tip the scales in its favour.

Scottish Independence Referendum #2 Initial Q&A

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon of the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) has announced that she intends to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019. Despite losing the first independence referendum in September 2014 by 55%:45%, and only 12 of the 55 opinion polls since then showing a pro-independence lead, Sturgeon clearly believes that the UK's forthcoming exit from the EU will significantly alter the terms of the debate.

Impeachment Clears Way For Early Elections

The upholding of South Korean President Park Geun-hye's impeachment by the Constitutional Court is likely to lead to continued political uncertainty as the country prepares for the presidential elections that must be held within 60 days. The ruling also leads to considerable uncertainty over Park's political future, as she is likely to come under investigation for bribery and corruption, having lost her presidential immunity. We therefore maintain our short-term political risk index score of 73.5, which we had downgraded in December 2016 to reflect the likelihood of early elections.

Monthly Fixed Income Strategy - Removing Our Bullish TIPS View

We are no longer bullish on US inflation-linked bonds as the Fed is increasingly hawkish while there are risks of a decline in inflation expectations posed by a potential equity market crash. That said, US bonds are still likely to outperform eurozone bonds as rising inflation expectations and default risk in the latter put upside pressure on yields. Meanwhile, EM bonds are in a far better shape versus DM due to their higher yields, with Mexico our favourite pick, and we have also added a bullish view on Malaysia.

Election Primer - Macron Victory Will Provide Boost To Moderates Across EU

Emmanuel Macron is set to win the French presidential elections, defeating far-right Marine Le Pen in the second round. His pro-European policies and pro-market reforms will boost investor confidence in the euro and the European Union. Although Macron is set receive support from members of the centre-left Socialist Party and centre-right Les Republicains in parliament, without a party apparatus behind him, he will nonetheless have difficulties to push through far-reaching reforms.

Turbulent Geopolitical Landscape To Impede 'One Belt One Road'

China's 'One Belt One Road' vision of a Trans-Eurasian transport corridor will face multiple obstacles, as most of its land routes pass through countries that are already politically unstable or are at risk of considerable upheaval over the coming decades. The initiative will thus prompt China to play a greater role in shaping Eurasia’s security relationships as well as trade.

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