Articles List

OPEC: Initial Views On The Production Deal

The OPEC deal to remove 1.2mn b/d offers a powerful commitment to move the oil market into balance but relies heavily on compliance of both OPEC and non-OPEC participants. We initially see the deal holding, though maintain our oil price forecast of USD55/bbl average for Brent in 2017 given ample stock levels and spare capacity within OPEC. Compliance issues and a stronger than forecast revival from the US shale sector represents the largest downside risk, particularly to our WTI forecast for 2017.

Central Europe: Investment Rebound Key To Growth In 2017

Data from Q316 shows that economic growth rates in Central Europe (CE) have cooled significantly on the back of a sharp slowdown in fixed investment, highlighting the region's dependence on EU structural funding inflows. Private consumption growth remains strong, but a rebound in investment will be crucial in keeping the positive consumer story alive and medium-term growth prospects robust over the coming years.

Quad-Play To Remain Limited Despite Sky's Entry

Sky's entry in the mobile market will have a limited impact on the demand for quad-play, as we believe BT is the core player to be driving that particular segment. However, its data rollover plans will disrupt an already competitive mobile market.

Cleaner Fuels Drive To Gain Greater Momentum

Refiners will focus on improving margins through increasing production of low-sulphur fuels amid tighter emissions laws across Asia, the Middle East and North America.

Global Telecoms: Key Themes For 2017

Regulatory, competitive, macroeconomic and technological pressures will again be the main forces shaping the global telecommunications industry in 2017. Although our core outlook is one of 'business as usual', we acknowledge that the steady replacement of globalist economic planning with more localised 'populist' approaches to driving economic development and diversification will colour investment decisions in the short to medium term, despite the fundamental borderless nature of the industry.

Key Themes For Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare In 2017

Pharmaceutical companies will face an increasing number of external risks to their operations. Many of these new challenges emanate from the global financial crisis of 2007-08. In an era of fiscal pressures, governments are seeking to control growth in healthcare spending and will disproportionately target expenditure on medicines with mechanisms such as pharmacoeconomics. The key internal business risk for drugmakers will remain the failure of product candidates in late-stage clinical trials.

Lead: Peru To Be Growth Bright Spot

Global lead mine production growth will continue to slow due to both a subdued price recovery and a weak global project pipeline. Despite this, Peru will be a relative growth bright spot, supported by a strong project pipeline across minerals, in which lead is often mined as a by-product

Bayer Bond Sale Puts Convertibles Back In The Spotlight

German pharmaceuticals giant Bayer has priced a bumper USD4.3bn convertible bond, which adds credence to one long-held BMI-held view that equity-backed deals to support takeovers will become increasingly popular, a trend which we expect to see stand firm in the climate of both political and economic uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's surprise US Presidential election victory.

More LNG Heading To Europe

European natural gas prices will remain elevated over December, January and February, attracting more LNG cargos and putting upward pressure on Asian spot LNG prices. Prices will trend lower from early 2017 as demand softens and global LNG capacity increases.

Net Negative Impact From Trump's Election

The election of Donald Trump as the next US president is, in sum, slightly negative for the political and economic outlook of the UAE. Under a Trump presidency we expect closer scrutiny on Iran and a shift away from defeating President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria towards targeting Islamic State - signalling divergence from Emirati foreign policy priorities.




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