Articles List

Articles List

Increasing Government Support To Benefit Domestic Industry

Increasing interest from foreign investors and further government support will boost the capacity of Ethiopia's domestic pharmaceutical industry over the long-term. The government's 10-year plans are yielding positive results in achieving self-sufficiency; however, we uphold our view that many of their targets are overly ambitious. Despite improvements to the country's domestic capabilities and export growth, Ethiopia will remain reliant on importing the majority of its pharmaceuticals.

Russia's Food Import Ban To Cease In H216

Russia will remove its retaliatory import ban on Western products during H216 after the EU removes the sanctions it imposed on Russia. The ban removal will reinforce disinflationary trends in Russia over H216 and lead to lower growth in the Russian and Belarusian agricultural sectors. The removal will be significantly positive for some EU member states (mainly Finland, the Baltic countries and Poland) and will help to reduce the current supply glut on the global dairy market.

China Remains Attractive, But Strategy Needs Rethink

China will remain the most attractive consumer market globally despite the slowdown in its economy. Nonetheless, the period of easy growth is over as retail sales growth heads lower and consumers develop increasingly sophisticated tastes. Accounting for rising health consciousness, demand for innovative goods and the surging popularity of e-commerce will be essential to succeed in the country.

Member States, Not EC, Leading Spectrum Policy

BMI sees no evidence that the EC's harmonisation proposal for spectrum in the 700MHz band will have greater success than its endeavours with LTE spectrum. Member states still retain the upper hand when it comes to allocating spectrum, and have different objectives than the EC, which can only propose a lowest common denominator approach to ensure agreement.

Belo Monte Inclusion Lifts Conservative Hydropower Forecasts

We have revised up our forecast for Brazil's hydropower capacity and generation over the next 10 years as a result of progress in the implementation of the country's project pipeline, including the Belo Monte mega-project.

AbbVie Affirms FY2015 Guidance, Strengthens Positive Outlook

AbbVie will continue to record double-digit revenue growth in FY2016 as the company is well-positioned in attractive, high-growth biopharmaceutical segments. Humira, which continues to dominate AbbVie's sales, will not face immediate competition from biosimilars and a step-by-step approach to market Imbruvica for expansion will also bolster sales prospects. The company's large, transformational pipeline products will also support AbbVie's long-term growth prospects.

Growth Will Pick Up In 2016

An uptick in investor sentiment, the launch of the TEN oilfields and the waning of the electricity crisis will lead to an uptick in real GDP growth in Ghana in 2016, following two years of macroeconomic turmoil. We forecast expansion of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

CVs To Lead Vehicle Fleet Boom

Myanmar's new vehicle market will remain nascent in the country over our five year forecast period to 2020 but we believe automotive companies, particularly CV producers, will benefit from the current boom in vehicle ownership rates.

Vulnerability To Zika Virus An Ongoing Concern

Although outbreaks of the Zika virus have been concentrated in Latin America, the presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito in Africa means it will remain extremely vulnerable to outbreaks. The development of a global response unit demonstrates an international commitment to preventing the spread of Zika to the African continent. Lessons learnt from the recent Ebola crisis in West Africa are likely to support the prevention and control of potential Zika virus outbreaks. However, inadequate healthcare systems, rapid urbanisation, and limited knowledge of the disease all contribute to Africa's vulnerability.

China On The Brink: Five Economic Scenarios

2016 represents a crossroads for the Chinese economy, which has lost significant momentum and remains in the midst of a serious slowdown. We have long maintained that the Chinese economy is in need of sweeping structural reforms and a broad re-organisation of its production structure, and that the government has to a large extent prevented this from taking place as a result of competing political imperatives. However, with downward pressures on the economy at their greatest since at least the global financial crisis (and potentially since the early 1990s), we are likely to witness over the coming quarters the extent to which huge investment spending amid the suppression of market forces over recent years has undermined the economy's production structure and future economic growth prospects.

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