The restructuring of the forest-related industry coupled with the aim to phase-down coal-fired power will add momentum to Finnish biomass production and biomass power generation over the next decade - with the availability of European export markets set to support Finland's bio-industry drive.
BMI View: Stagflationary conditions in the Sub-Saharan African region are likely to prevail from the end of 2016 into 2017, as global commodity prices start rising from the end of 2016 while any growth dividend from a slow recovery in commodities remains limited.
We have upgraded our coffee price forecasts, as a strengthening Brazilian real will provide support for prices, given the strong correlation between the two assets. We have otherwise made limited changes to our fundamental forecasts. Beyond 2016 we expect prices to trade sideways to slightly higher as the global market will register small surpluses and Latin American currencies average slightly higher from current levels against the US dollar.
Major refining capacity expansions will turn traditional crude oil exporters - Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam - into net importers over the next five years. This will create export opportunities for major producers, benefitting oil exporters in the Middle East.
Big pharma is undergoing a fundamental transformation. A novel model is being established that attempts to harness the most advantageous aspects of small biotech operational efficiencies and entrepreneurship, whilst maintaining the powerful influence and funding of multinationals. Success for early advocates will see this cultural shift pervade the industry, with further efficiency gains to be harnessed through the adoption of emerging technologies.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will become key targets for the South Korean healthcare industry. Conditions within the region are favourable, with a rising chronic disease burden, a shift towards healthcare privatisation and extensive healthcare coverage supported by continual government commitment. This will heighten the level of competition within the GCC, which already has many multinational drugmakers active in the market. A key risk to this view stems from a further decline in oil prices, though we expect its impact to be heterogeneous as the GCC members have varying levels of exposure to the oil and gas sector.
Our core view for the senate to accept impeachment charges against President Dilma Rousseff and for Vice-President Michel Temer to take office does not represent any quick fix for Brazil's stagnant infrastructure sector.
Government-led initiatives to improve Botswana's political stance will be limited in their success towards stemming multinational drugmaker interest. Despite Botswana remaining the least corrupt nation in Sub-Saharan Africa, we expect that South Africa will continue to be utilised as the chief manufacturing hub for foreign drugmakers in Southern Africa. Fiscal pressures from strained diamond revenues will not deter the government's ongoing commitment to improving healthcare delivery throughout the country.