Articles List

Articles List

EU-Greece Tensions Another Blow To Schengen Zone

There are no signs that the migrant crisis is nearing an end, and the pressure this is placing on the passportless Schengen zone continues to rise. The chances of the Schengen agreement remaining in place in its current guise are shrinking by the day, and the extension of border checks within the zone for two years would require significant reforms if the zone is to remain in existence beyond that timeframe.

Moderate Tightening Not Sooner Than Late 2016

The BOI will maintain its accommodative policy over the coming quarters given the risks posed to the shekel, economic activity and inflation. With the latter reaching the Central Bank's target of 1-3% annual inflation in late 2016, and with economic growth accelerating over the coming quarters, the BOI will embark on very moderate monetary tightening from Q416.

Medical Marijuana Bill Will Attract Pharmaceutical Investment

Changes to marijuana policies in Mexico will provide revenue-generating opportunities for pharmaceutical companies in the long term. However, the lack of sufficient human resource and funding in the regulatory system as well as public resistance could hinder the market's growth potential. In addition, as other countries in the region abolish punitive marijuana policies, Mexico's competitive advantages will gradually dim.

Global Autos Update: More Subdued Year Ahead

We expect passenger vehicle sales in 2016 to be much more subdued than in 2015, with some major emerging markets still to find a bottom to the market. High paced growth in the US will also make way for a more moderate increase, albeit enough to ensure another record year in volume terms.

Health Insurance Reform Will Boost Healthcare Expenditure

Reforms to Egypt's health insurance system will provide a much needed boost to the country's ailing healthcare sector. This development highlights the government's increasing will to implement policy reforms within the sector. The reforms will continue to face opposition - if successful, the newly proposed law will impose compulsory monthly subscriptions, thus boosting government revenues and the proportion targeted towards healthcare. Over the long-term, this will drive health expenditure in Egypt, and lead to a noticeable improvement in the delivery of healthcare services. We expect that these changes will lead to a greater contribution from the private sector, which will play a vital role in Egypt's hopes of moving closer to achieving universal health coverage.

Carbonates Competition Intensifies After AJE Entry

Despite ongoing consumer weaknesses, carbonated soft drinks sales will post robust growth throughout our forecast period to 2020. At the industry level, the entry of low-cost manufacturer AJE Group will increase the level of competition. Due to its tremendous branding power, Coca-Cola HBC is less at risk than its competitors.

Oil Reversal To Provide Relative Value Opportunities

The strong reversal in oil prices is a very bullish signal and suggests that at the very least some short-term relief for global risk assets is in order, particularly for oil exporting currencies and EM equities. Dynamics in the oil markets also suggest strong potential for excellent returns are to be expected over the coming months.

Market Maturity No Barrier To Handset Sales

The launch of new mobile networks in emerging markets, consolidation of key players in mature markets and the perpetual need to replace or upgrade devices to take advantage of new services and technologies will drive further growth of mobile handset sales in 2016 and beyond. Asia and Africa will continue to outperform as replacement cycles lengthen elsewhere in the world.

Microgrids Key To SSA Electrification Efforts

Village-level solar-powered microgrids will support electrification efforts in SSA, as convenience and the growing competitiveness of off-grid systems will help the region overcome the issues associated with centralised power grids.