Articles List

Articles List

Painful Post-Oil Boom Adjustment Ahead for Norway

The next few years will mark a painful transition away from Norway's dependence on the oil sector, with real GDP growth unlikely to return above 2.0% for several years as the economy adjusts. The government policy response will be crucial to the medium-term direction, but there are no easy fixes for the deep structural problems in the economy.

No Longer Expecting MSCI World Index to Outperform MSCI World Energy

We no longer expect the MSCI World Index to outperform the MSCI Energy Index as oil and gas companies have taken substantial steps to reduce costs while the oil price begins to stabilise. The MSCI World energy index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 24% since we initiated the view

Crisis May Worsen Before It Gets Better

A likely tightening of sanctions is unlikely to result in a lasting cessation of hostilities or meaningful political settlement in South Sudan over the coming months.

Five Reasons Volvo Chose South Carolina

BMI View: A business-friendly environment and increasingly experienced workforce will continue to attract autos investment to South Carolina. This will provide a case for keeping other attractive features, such as the transport infrastructure, well maintained and developed.

Aliyun to Benefit from UAE's Smart City IT Initiatives

Through its partnership with Meraas, Aliyun will be well-placed to benefit from the emergence of smart cities and related infrastructure over the next decade. The company's proven capabilities in processing complex 'big data' systems will make it an attractive partner for players across multiple verticals and, potentially, give parent Alibaba access to a relatively underserved e-commerce market.

European Rate Expectations Moving Higher

Rising nominal yields have been broadly matched by rising rate expectations across Europe, most strikingly in the eurozone where a small but significant shift has taken place with regards to the market-implied trajectory of ECB monetary policy. More hawkish rate expectations and narrowing yield spreads are supporting GBP and EUR against USD.

Bund Selloff Has Further to Go

The spike in eurozone bond yield suggests a significant trend change is coming. As we argued on May 1, 'It is worth noting that real yields are on average now lower than they were prior to the 'taper tantrum' of 2013, and the recent spike in Germany yields suggests that history may be repeating'. Perhaps a more appropriate comparison, however, is with the Japanese bond market VaR (Value-at-Risk) shock of 2003.

Jamaica's Trade Gains Will Result in Gradual Narrowing of Shortfall

Our broad view for improvements in Jamaica's current account remains in place as the import bill declines and export competitiveness increases. However, given recent data which suggest that import declines have been more modest that we originally expected, we have downgraded our current account deficit forecasts, to 7.4% of GDP in 2015 and 6.8% in 2016.

FLNG By 2020, Downside Risks To Onshore LNG

We expect Eni will make a final investment decision on its floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project in H215, with first production in 2020. The timing for the onshore LNG terminal is increasingly uncertain, however, with low global oil and LNG prices likely to cause delays to an FID on the project. We have pushed back first onshore LNG production by one year, from 2020 to 2021, to account for the mounting risks.

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