Articles List

Articles List

Fewer External Threats To Financial Stability

Greece's current account will remain in surplus in 2015 and 2016, amidst weak domestic demand and a buoyant tourism sector. On a long-term structural basis, successive sovereign bailouts have notionally improved external account stability, by transferring financial account risks to Greece's creditors.

CNY Devaluation: Risk Of Further Steel Price Weakness

Although we still see limited growth prospects for Chinese steel production, the August 11-12 CNY devaluation is a positive for the sector and could prolong the current global steel oversupply. The outlook for steel prices has thus deteriorated.

China Export Exposure Highest in Frontier Asia and Africa

Several frontier economies in Asia and Africa are strongly exposed to China via merchandise exports. Mongolia, Angola, Congo-Brazzaville and Sierra Leone are most exposed. Exposure is generally low among the major economies.

Political Risk Briefing: Eurozone Analysis

Greece has reached a deal with its creditors over a third bailout package rumoured to be worth EUR86bn. The content of the deal has largely been agreed by both sides, with only a few sticking points needing to be clarified before the bill is put before the Greek Parliament. We expect the bill to pass with support from pro-Europe opposition parties, as leftist factions within the Syriza government look set to reject the deal. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras now looks increasingly likely to call early elections in the autumn to re-establish his mandate in the post-bailout environment.

India's Iron Ore Production To Be State-Led

Though the MMDR bill has paved the way to the restart of iron ore mining operations in India, production from restarted mines will be tepid due to high costs, low prices and a poor export market. India's growth in iron ore production will instead be led by state-owned entities. We forecast that mine production will grow by an average of 3.8% y-o-y over 2015-2019.

Healthcare Sector Developments Will Spur Increased Commercial Opportunities

Uruguay's healthcare market will retain a positive trajectory over the next decade as an ageing population, the promotion of favourable foreign investment policies, and governmental action to provide high-value therapies continue to generate increasing medical demand and access. The government's work to improve healthcare through national campaigns will also spur commercial opportunities in the country, furthering its appeal to foreign investors.

Challengers Look To Increase Pressure On BT

Vodafone's move to broadband services is both part of its convergence strategy and a response to the threat of a bigger BT. The relationship between BT as a service and infrastructure provider will come under further regulatory scrutiny with its re-entry into mobile, with BMI arguing that a single full fibre network is required for the UK's future needs.

PBoC Promptly Abandons 'One-Off' Claim: Expect Further Weakness

Supporting our position that the PBoC's 'one-off' claim was not a credible one to begin with (see 'Yuan Devaluation Warns Of More To Come', August 11), the central bank set its daily yuan reference rate aggressively weaker for the second straight day this morning, promptly abandoning the assertion that its August 11 devaluation would be a one-off move. Nevertheless, the cumulative 3.5% move is still not sufficient to restore competitiveness to the CNY, which has strengthened significantly in real effective terms over the past year owing to its tight relationship with the resurgent US dollar.

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