Articles List

No Obvious Target For Mobile Consolidation

We do not expect that the proposed legislation easing mergers will lead to immediate consolidation in Panama's mobile market as the four players currently present are aware of the market's strong opportunities. It will require an exceptionally good offer and worsening situations in other parts of their footprint for an operator to decide to sell.

Regional Favourites Facing Headwinds

Rising political unrest, deteriorating business environments and greater-than-anticipated fiscal slippage have dimmed the long-term growth outlooks of regional favourites such as Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. While Cote d'Ivoire has largely retained its lustre, the potential for economic instability or underperformance in the agricultural sector suggests the risks are heavily skewed to the downside over a multiyear time horizon.

Scrappage Scheme To Further Erode Fuels Demand

Government plans for a new diesel car scrappage scheme will pose further downside risk to distillate fuel demand in the UK. Over the long term, the UK will experience structural declines in total fuel consumption as improved efficiencies and environmental regulations continue to erode demand.

Quick View: Carcara Divestment Delay Highlights Above-Ground Threats

On April 17, a Brazilian court ordered Brazilian national oil company (NOC) Petrobras to suspend its sale of a 66.0% stake of the BM-S-8 deepwater license in the Carcara exploratory block to Statoil. Originally announced in July 2016, the USD2.5bn transaction has been suspended on the grounds that the NOC did not conduct the required open bidding process and sold the asset at below market value, as claimed in a suit filed by the National Federation of Oil Workers union.

Chinese Vendors To Intensify Price Competition

Potential intervention from the Indian government in the form of levies imposed on Chinese handsets produced locally would not be enough to disable their competitive advantage in the Indian market. Leveraging experience and profitability in the Chinese market, as well as support from Beijing, Chinese vendors will continue to put pressure on Indian players, resulting in greater price competition and rapid expansion.

Investment In Smart Mining To Accelerate

Miners will increasingly invest in technology integration, including automation and internet connectivity, to improve competitiveness in a volatile mineral price environment. Major diversified miners, with the largest budgets, operating in developed markets capable of providing widespread internet access and skilled labour, will drive this trend.

Diabetes To Remain A Key Area Of Unmet Medical Need

Access to diabetes treatments will remain a key concern throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. Opportunities for innovative drugmakers to exploit this therapeutic field in West Africa are limited, yet the significant lack of diagnosis highlights a particular unmet medical need. Over the long term, multinational drugmakers will seek further commercial opportunities in the region as governments improve accessibility to diabetes medicines.

Crude Production: No Upside In Sight

PdVSA's April bond repayment does not eliminate the threat of default. Q4 repayments will force the NOC to stockpile funds, exacerbating inefficiencies and disrepair throughout the industry.

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