Articles List

Low Savings Rate To Persist

Depressed real interest rates and the adoption of a more expansionary fiscal policy will keep Turkey's savings rate low and the current account deficit uncomfortably wide, maintaining the economy's hefty reliance on foreign financing over the coming years. Sizeable investment will continue to be directed towards non-exporting sectors, impeding an improvement in Turkey's large trade deficit.

Week Ahead: Strong Growth Unlikely To Alter ECB's Course

The European Central Bank (ECB)'s Governing Council is due to meet on June 8, and while we do not expect any change in the policy framework to be announced, we will be watching for changes to the official economic projections which are due to be updated.

Rouhani's Re-Appointment A Positive Signal To Mining Investors

Iran's mining industry, especially its steel sector, will see an uptick in foreign investment in the coming years as the re-election of President Hassan Rouhani signals policy continuation. Nevertheless, the government's target of attracting USD50bn to the industry by 2022 will fall short due to continuing non-nuclear-related US sanctions on Iran, poor infrastructure, corruption and bureaucracy.

Novel Approaches To Offer Significant Advantage Within HIV Therapies

The HIV market is contracting, but there is still a demand for novel therapies. The larger players are attempting to develop once-daily/single tablet treatments, which could offer a significant advantage over competitors while reducing the chance of drug-resistance. Smaller players, such as Immune Therapeutics, are trying to establish themselves in the African market before the approval of these latest drugs. However, the smaller players will struggle to hold a large market share without the expertise and reputation.

Favourable Risk Profile Boosts Infrastructure Market Appeal

The attractiveness of the South African infrastructure market as an investment destination is bolstered by the overall ease of doing business in the country and its position as the gateway to the wider SSA region. The returns on offer are limited compared to its faster-growing peers, as constrained government revenues and weak private investment translate into tepid construction industry growth.

New Government Ends Political Deadlock But Risks Remain Elevated

The new Macedonian government, formed after a parliamentary vote on May 31, will put an end to the country's prolonged political deadlock. The new coalition will prioritize economic growth and the acceleration of EU And NATO Accession Talks. Having said that, we maintain our long-term view that political stability will remain elusive, owing to an obstructive opposition and persistent ethnic issue.

Agricultural Sector Alleviating Economic Fallout Of Trade Blockade

The Ukrainian economy will benefit from rising agricultural sector output and gradually recovering household demand in the coming quarters. While the Donbas trade blockade will weigh on output from the country's large steel sector, the aforementioned factors will keep GDP growth in positive territory.

Oil Price Collapse Leaves Economy Structurally Weaker

Despite the likelihood of a gradual recovery from its recent slowdown, the Angolan economy will struggle to record levels of growth seen prior to the collapse in oil prices. Limited investment into the country's dominant hydrocarbons sector will see growth remain structurally weak and vulnerable to sudden downturns in the event of a future external shock.

Romania: A Regional Outlier

Romania's ruling coalition will remain in a relatively vulnerable position in the months ahead, threatened by rising populist sentiment that centres on rooting out corruption and protecting the rule of law. In Romania, populism will give rise to a more vigilant civil society and to strengthened democratic checks and balances, in addition to sustained to support for the European project.

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