Articles List

Week Ahead: Italian Financial And Political Issues In Focus

In the week ahead, we will continue to monitor a number of eurozone data releases including German retail sales and Italian confidence surveys, in an effort to further our understanding of the bloc's economic situation.

Oil & Gas - Weekly Projects Round-Up

Week beginning December 19 - Major oil and gas project updates across the upstream, midstream, downstream and LNG sectors.

Subdued Short-Term Consumer Momentum

South Africa's consumer outlook will regain momentum, albeit only gradually in 2017. We hold a tepid outlook for the growth of the country's economic environment, weighing substantially on consumer confidence. High and rising unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, will further create increasingly unfavourable market conditions placing pressure on household spending.

Orban's Strong Political Support Will Mask Underlying Weaknesses

In an effort to shore up public support before the 2018 election, the ruling Fidesz party under Viktor Orban will continue to shift to the right on the domestic policy front. Internationally, Orban will be emboldened by growing euroscepticism and Trump's victory in the US, while persisting in challenging Brussels over a range of issues.

Strong Growth Ahead For e-Commerce Despite Logistical Hurdles

Within APAC, we identify Vietnam as having strong growth potential for e-commerce, on the back of rapidly rising broadband and mobile penetration, greater foreign investment in ICT, and strong state backing and robust economic outlook. Logistics will remain a key challenge for the sector in Vietnam, in particular for smaller cities and rural areas, with Lazada to be best equipped to overcome these hurdles.

Sharara, El Feel: A False Start

Despite the restart of the Sharara and El Feel oilfields, we hold to our current production forecast of 458,000b/d for 2017. Given the localised and fluid nature of the conflict and weak state infrastructure, we believe the risks of renewed production outages remain high.

More Peso Weakness For Now As Economic Activity Slows

Slowing economic activity growth in October highlights ongoing weakness in durable goods orders from the US. Strong retails sales reflect rising US dollar remittance inflows, bolstered further by the weaker Mexican peso.

Global Autos: Growth Stable But Focus To Shift

The global autos market will remain stable in 2017 with growth of 2.9%. However, it will be emerging markets driving this growth rather than the developed states that have taken the lead for the last two years.

Charts Of 2016: What They Tell Us About 2017

As the year draws to a close, we have pulled together our favourite charts of 2016. All are charts that we ran at some point during the year - in some cases over and over - and all are striking both in terms of what they tell us about the world in 2016, but also the lessons we can carry over into 2017 and beyond.

Assassination To Worsen Security Environment

The December 19 assassination of Russia's ambassador to Turkey will not lead to a noticeable deterioration of relations between the two countries. However, the attack will lead to a worsening security environment in Turkey, compounding the country's flagging economic outlook.




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