Articles List

Articles List

Communicable Diseases Will Remain Greatest Burden

Communicable diseases will continue to dominate Botswana's disease profile, with HIV/AIDS posing the greatest burden. The government's provision of free antiretroviral treatment will provide opportunities for generic drugmakers within the public healthcare sector. As the economy develops, the burden of non-communicable diseases will increase, providing a more attractive epidemiological profile for multinational drugmakers.

Soft Drinks in Africa: Enter the Low-Cost Alternative

Local manufactures in Tanzania, typically subsidiaries of domestic conglomerates, will establish strong niches in the carbonated soft drinks industry as lower-cost alternatives to international brands like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, as the market becomes more tiered.

New Pharmaceutical Sales Data Prompts Forecast Revision

Although pharmaceutical sales grew at a slower pace than we previously forecast in 2014, Kazakhstan's pharmaceutical market will maintain its rapid local currency growth rate over the long term. The government will continue to support increased healthcare expenditure in order to bolster popular support and ensure political stability, and we expect that this will contribute towards growth in pharmaceutical sales, boosting the country's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers.

'Existential' Threats and Political Risks: An Assessment

Despite substantial political risks worldwide, most countries do not face any 'existential' threats in the next few years. The main danger is likely to emanate from new technologies, especially artificially intelligent combat platforms, that will significantly increase the risks of conflict.

El Salvador's Soaring Murder Rate: Massively Challenging for Government

The murder rate in El Salvador, which has reached levels not seen in a generation, has created an urgent crisis in the country, apparently catching the government on its heels. Turning the tide will pose major challenges for the government, weighing on the country's economic prospects and undermining its efforts to overcome its violent past.

Rising Debt: Emergent Risk to Oil & Gas Sector

The combination of high debt loads and low oil prices will increase financial pressures on oil companies globally. The Americas and CEE regions will come under the greatest strain, threatening a more aggressive slowdown in spending and isolated company defaults. Other markets most at risk include China, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Inflation Pressures Growing Despite Headline Drop

While Japan's headline inflation continues to decline in y-o-y terms, the underlying trend is for increased price pressures, which will likely prevent the BoJ from easing further in 2015. However, the need to fund the large fiscal deficit will pressure the central bank to expand its quantitative easing programme over the medium term. Government bond yields are set to rise considerably.

Policy U-Turn Raising Upside Risks To Car Sales

The high likelihood of the government extending its car purchasing scheme will boost sales in 2016 but will not address fundamental weaknesses in the Spanish market and will also limit sales opportunities from 2017 onwards.