Articles List

2017 To Be A Key Year For Domestic Politics

Cambodia's political scene looks set to heat up in 2017 as municipal elections will be held on June 4, which will shed light on the likelihood of the ruling CPP retaining power at the next general election in 2018. Prime Minister Hun Sen appears to be increasingly concerned over his party's prospects and is taking tough measures to undermine the opposition. Stakes are high and we could see a resurgence of protest activity if such tactics continue in the run up to the elections.

Regional Growth Will Remain Subdued On Structurally Lower Commodity Prices

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate gradually over the course of 2017, as a modest recovery in commodity prices bolsters the fortunes of the region's oil and metals producers, while robust investment supports continued gains in the region's infrastructure-driven economies. In the next ten years though, growth will be considerably weaker compared to the previous decade as commodity prices remain structurally lower and the region's largest economies struggle to diversify away from their heavy dependence on oil and metals production.

Trump Presidency A Threat To Brent

A Trump presidency poses downside risk to our oil price outlook. A failure to agree collective action at the November meeting of OPEC, an accelerated recovery in shale and heightened economic uncertainty are all potential triggers for a downgrade for 2017.

Trump’s Foreign Policy: Rhetoric Vs Pragmatism

US President-elect Donald Trump will be forced to adopt a more pragmatic than expected foreign policy in the near term, as any attempts at dramatic change would likely face resistance from the foreign policy establishment and the 'realities of power'. Even so, we still expect Trump to pressure traditional US allies to strengthen their defence capabilities, and adopt a tougher stance on trade issues.

Political Infighting To Hamper Anti-Extremism Efforts

Recent developments highlight the ongoing threat of terrorism in Pakistan, which will persist for the foreseeable future. The increased activity of Islamic State in the country is a major concern, while the continued lack of willingness on the part of the government to tackle fundamentalism will create the conditions for further attacks.

Abe Likely To Rule Beyond 2018, But Major Risks Mounting Thereafter

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to remain in office beyond September 2018, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will grant him a term extension, and Abe lacks powerful rivals within the LDP. Assuming Abe remains beyond 2018, political risks will increase dramatically towards the end of this decade as he pursues constitutional change and Japan faces a fiscal reckoning.

Healthcare reforms Will Boost Opportunities For Drugmakers

Amidst the demographic inequalities, influx of refugees, and financial uncertainties within Tunisia's healthcare system, reforms will become of a higher priority over the coming decade. Indeed, healthcare reforms will significantly increase the population's accessibility to, and therefore demand for, medicines - boosting the country's attractiveness to multinational pharmaceutical firms. Whilst we expect the North African country's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets to maintain a strong growth trajectory, the larger markets of Egypt and Algeria will continue to boast the greatest international drugmaker presence.

Progress In Mitigating Renewables Risks, But More To Do

India has successfully alleviated some of the most pressing challenges facing the expansion of its renewables industry, namely inefficient grid networks and inhibitive pre-procurement project risks.

Bulgarian And Moldovan Presidential Wins Signal Limited Pro-Russian Shifts

The victories of pro-Russian candidates in the Bulgarian and Moldovan presidential elections on November 13 signal a more Moscow-friendly foreign policy in both countries. However, the fact that both presidencies carry little powers means that there will be limits to the tilt towards Russia.

Pages

×

REQUEST A DEMO

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

A member of the team will be in touch shortly to arrange a convenient time for your free demonstration and trial. If your enquiry is urgent, please email our Client Services team here.