Articles List

Historical Election Results

The previous French presidential election took place over two rounds in spring 2012: the first on April 21-22 and the second on May 5-6. The result delivered a victory for opposition Socialist Party (PS) candidate François Hollande, who defeated incumbent Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) President Nicolas Sarkozy. The defeat of Sarkozy marked the first time since the ousting of President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing in 1981 that a president had lost office after serving just one term.

SSA Autos: Still Underperforming

At just 2.4%, vehicle sales growth in SSA will stay below potential in 2017, despite how far the market has declined in recent years. There will be bright spots, however, such as Botswana and Tanzania in the south and Côte d'Ivoire in the west.

EM Reform Tracker: Indian State Elections And China's Push

This month we focus on Asia - particularly the benefits India and China receive from greater reform momentum; and South Korea's outlook for reform, given President Park's removal. In India, the governing Bharatiya Janata Party won a landslide victory in the Uttar Pradesh state election, which bodes well for reform in the country, and in China, the government has reaffirmed its commitment to reform.

Belt & Road: South & Southeast Asian Natural Gas Sectors To Benefit

Oil and gas projects under China's Belt and Road initiative serve three strategic goals; to improve energy security, establish new and more efficient trade routes to both domestic and international markets, and expand Chinese soft power across surrounding regions. Subsequent investment will focus mainly on the natural gas and LNG sectors in South and Southeast Asia, as China seeks greater gas supply security and import diversification amid rising domestic demand.

Global Shakeup: The New Reality For World Trade

With economic nationalism on the rise globally, highlighted by the election of Donald Trump as US president, the future of the global trade regime is increasingly in doubt. BMI's country risk and industry sector teams have assessed the potential risks and opportunities for corporates and investors in this new reality for world trade.

Capital On Hand To Fuel US Shale Revival

US E&Ps will benefit from supportive credit conditions in 2017, raising capital to boost production. However, issuance will not return to previous peaks, due to tighter capital disciple in the face of soft recovery in oil prices.

Chilean Equities: Near-Term Upside To Give Way To Longer-Term Uncertainty

The MSCI Chile Index has undergone a significant rally over the past year, rising 40.0% from its bottom in January 2016. The index made a bullish break higher in recent days, bringing multi-year downtrend resistance into view. This break, alongside favourable valuations, underpins our constructive outlook on the index in the near-term.

Willingness To Defend The Peg Intact; Pressures Easing

The Central Bank of Iraq’s willingness to defend the dinar’s peg to the US dollar remains strong, as devaluing would provide limited economic and political benefits and would further harm business confidence. This will be facilitated by easing depreciatory pressures, as Iraq's external position benefits from recovering oil prices.

Relations With The West To Deteriorate Further

Following last week's article where we examined the possible ramifications of the April 16 constitutional referendum for domestic policy (see 'Referendum To Presage Growing Authoritarianism', March 17), we examine the possible consequences for foreign policy.

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