Articles List

Articles List

Frontier Markets Flocking To IMF Amid Economic Upheaval

Many frontier markets are experiencing severe pressure in their fiscal and balance of payments positions, and a sustained period of low commodity prices, weak global growth (particularly in China) as well as fiscal and current account deficits could send them over the edge. We highlight that Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Angola, Zambia, Ecuador, Trinidad & Tobago and Egypt are either already in initial negotiations with the IMF for assistance or could eventually engage the institution for formal help in the near future.

FCA-Google Partnership: Will Benefits Outweigh Risks?

FCA and Google's self-driving deal is mutually beneficial; FCA needs a partner to develop its driverless technology capabilities whereas Google needs to test its technology on more commercial vehicles. However, before commercial driverless cars become a viable proposition, both the technology and the regulations surrounding it must improve. The short-term benefits could also lead to long-term tension between car manufacturers and technology companies.

IOCs To Emerge From Downcycle At USD50/bbl

Oil majors are gradually showing signs of becoming more operationally efficient, despite weak oil prices and refining margins impacting Q116 results. Targeting cash flow neutrality at around USD50/bbl over the next 18 months will place them in a strong position as oil prices recover.

Slim Prospects For Fixed-Line Liberalisation

Algeria's Ministry of Post and Information and Communication Technology's plan to privatise Algerie Telecom is unlikely to occur any time soon given the government protectionist stance and lack of progress in the last decade. However, if successful, it will provide the impetus for strong growth opportunities in the long term for telecoms operators.

Diversification Drive Insufficient To Prevent Oil Shock

The Gabonese economy will see another year of slow growth in 2016 as the impact of low oil prices continues to bite. While a small upward revision to our 2016 average oil price will help export revenues, real GDP growth will be held back by weak investor sentiment.

Global Rail Outlook: Urbanisation And Climate Concerns Driving Growth

The rail segment will be the fastest growing of the transport sectors over the coming decade, driven by an expansion of the high speed rail network, mass transit solutions in major urban areas and the shifting of freight to rail. Underlying growth drivers of urbanisation, carbon emissions reduction and integration of country and regional transport networks will catalyse investments over the next ten years.

Ongoing Regulatory Improvements To Attract Foreign Drugmakers

El Salvador's improving regulatory regime will continue to open up the local drug market to international players. The local government's commitment to healthcare will further improve the national healthcare system and increase patients' access to medicines. This will, in turn, increase volume sales for pharmaceutical companies that have a presence in the country. Multinational drugmakers and regional market leaders will capitalise on improved local drug market growth signs.

Beyond Commodities: Strong Investment Will Sustain Current Account Deficits

In this first instalment of a region-wide look at Sub-Saharan Africa's balance of payments, BMI's Africa Country Risk team looks beyond the commodity story. While the collapse in commodity prices has played a large role in the continent's growing current account deficits, we shine a light on the infrastructure pipelines driving import demand across the region and the impact they will have on muting any immediate recovery.

Spending Cuts Bring New Shale Strategy

Weakness in crude prices will spur greater resourcefulness on the part of shale oil producers, with companies targeting uncompleted well inventories, identifying refrac opportunities and bringing in new partners. New drilling will be limited in 2016, supporting our downbeat production trend for the year.

Canar A Capacity-Enriching Play For Zain

Zain's acquisition of Canar is more opportunistic than strategic in nature, as it is unlikely that significant demand for converged services will emerge in the long term. Nevertheless, the eventual easing of stiff local economic headwinds would allow Zain to exploit next-generation service opportunities in the enterprise sector and proprietary wireline infrastructure would be a key part of its toolkit.