Articles List

Witches' Broom Curse And Low Quality Constrain Outlook

Brazilian cocoa production will grow at a moderate pace out to 2021 as the sector remains impaired by the consequences of the witches' broom disease which decimated output 25 years ago. We see more opportunities in cocoa grindings with Brazil attracting interest from foreign investors and occupying the midstream segment of the supply-chain. Brazilian cocoa's long-term outlook will diverge from other Latin American producers due to the country's lack of premium varieties.

Chronic Disease Rise To Encourage Proactive Public Health Tools

The rapidly growing burden of non-communicable diseases in South Africa will reinforce the appeal of dietary taxation as a public health tool. While traditionally this tool has been more common in developed markets, governments in emerging markets will be motivated to implement these taxes as a means to fund healthcare projects, which are critical for authorities in Sub-Saharan African markets that are in the midst of expanding universal healthcare. This presents opportunities for pharmaceutical firms to partner with authorities and to become key players in particular therapeutic areas.

Snap: More Twitter Than Facebook

We believe that Snap, which has just filed its IPO, is more likely to be the new Twitter than the new Facebook. Four reasons underpin our view: strong market competition, low prospects for profitability, an unclear business model and weak corporate governance.

Progress On Fiscal Consolidation Will Placate EU Officials

Spain will make headway in reducing its fiscal deficit over the next two years, although it will fail to bring it in line with the EU's 3.0% of GDP limit by 2018. Public debt will gradually decline and borrowing costs, while rising, will remained depressed by historic standards as a result of the ECB's ongoing loose monetary policy.

Strong Dollar Accentuates Slower CE Spending Growth Outlook

In extending our forecasts for spending on consumer electronics equipment and associated products through to 2021, much slower rates of growth have come to bear on our Risk/Reward Index for the Americas. This is most evident in reduced Industry Rewards scores for several important markets such as Chile, Colombia and Mexico, where these economies are exposed to the strengthening US dollar. In addition, tablet sales growth has passed its peak, with 'phablet' form factors prevailing yet not offsetting reduced demand for notebook PCs.

Rebounding Oil And Buoyant Domestic Demand Narrowing C/A Surpluses

After a strong performance in 2016, we expect Bulgaria's current account surplus to moderate over the next two years. This will primarily be reflected in higher oil prices and robust domestic demand, which will increase the country's import bill. That said, the country needs to boost foreign direct investment in order to boost its dire productivity.

Two Countries At Risk From An Autos Trade Shake-Up

In line with our view that free trade uncertainty will be a key theme for the industry globally in 2017, we have identified countries that have carved out a niche as global export bases and as such, might be at risk in the event of a major shake-up of global trade.

Status Of Trump Infrastructure Plan - Q&A

Trump's widely touted USD1trn infrastructure package continues to be clouded by uncertainty over funding source, scale, and even what will be considered "infrastructure" under the plan.

Tax Burden To Limit Pharmaceutical Market Attractiveness

Brazil's punitive tax regime on pharmaceutical products will remain a drag on investment from multinational drugmakers. The decentralised nature of the tax system will prohibit a top-down change agenda, and recent increases in state taxes highlight the long-term challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry. In the context of the wider market environment, Brazil will remain the lead choice for pharmaceutical companies in Latin America given the size of the country and the government's commitment to healthcare.

Daimler, Uber Offer New Autonomous Taxi Business Model

A cooperation agreement to allow Daimler's self-driving vehicles onto Uber's ride-hailing platform in the coming years represents a new type of business model that could shape the future of self-driving taxis. The new model brings with it clear advantages for both companies but also requires both companies to make large sacrifices to potential profits over the long term.

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