Articles List

Articles List

Region To Remain Vulnerable To Zika

Despite the limited number of cases reported thus far, South East Asia will be vulnerable to the Zika virus. The Aedes aegypti mosquito, through which Zika spreads, is entrenched in the region and continues to grow as higher urbanisation creates environments that allow it to breed. Research on Zika has also been limited, which will affect the ability of healthcare systems to respond, especially considering the similar symptoms between Zika and dengue. As a result, there will be a medical need within the region for pharmaceutical products that can address the burden imposed by the virus.

Three Scenarios For Iraq's Fiscal Crisis

Given further weakness in oil prices, we outline three scenarios for the Iraqi economy over the coming quarters: 1) Baghdad carries out limited cuts in spending and devalues the dinar moderately, relying successfully on foreign reserves, the domestic banking sector and international donors to cover large fiscal shortfalls. 2) The government carries out massive spending cuts, resulting in a narrowing fiscal deficit but large-scale unrests. 3) Baghdad marginally cuts spending and receives less than expected from international donors, drawing further on FX reserves. Subsequently, the CBI is no longer able to protect the peg.

Funds Will Help Deliver Large Project Pipeline

The launch of large infrastructure funds in Colombia will provide additional financing availability for projects, particularly for those under the 4G road concessions programme in 2016this year.

Rising Risks Of A Global Recession

A global recession in 2016 is a clear and rising risk. Although our real GDP growth forecasts do not differ greatly from consensus for most countries, we are largely more negative on growth on the whole, and estimate a higher probability of a global recession scenario this year than consensus.

Revenue Growth To Be Supported By Weakened Yen

The weakness of the Japanese yen will be an overall positive for Daiichi Sankyo's performance over the coming quarters. With the yen set to depreciate further after the introduction of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan in January 2016, revenues from international markets such as North America will strengthen. This in turn will mitigate the negative impact from the lost of exclusivity on olmersartan and boost repatriated revenues of Daiichi Sankyo's new growth driver edoxaban.

Fast Fashion Still A Bright Spot In Clothing Industry

Fast fashion retailers such as Inditex and H&M will continue to disrupt the clothing industry across North America and Western Europe, taking market share away from legacy clothing retailers and department stores. Thanks to their highly efficient supply chains, they are offering fashionable designs at low prices, which is in line with consumer willingness to control their spending on discretionary items.

CME Milk: Averaging Lower In 2016 But Picking Up In 2017

We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see prices averaging lower this year, at USD15.00/cwt, compared with USD16.20/cwt previously. Prices will start to recover from 2017 onwards and average USD15.80/cwt that year. Looking at Asia Pacific prices, we maintain our view for them to remain weak in most of 2016, before starting to pick up modestly as we approach the end of the year.

Carlsberg & Heineken Margins To Come Under Strain

Margins at Carlsberg and Heineken will come under pressure as the deal between SABMiller and AB InBev is finalised, due to the greater bargaining power of their merged rival with suppliers and distributors globally. The geographic exposure of Carlsberg and Heineken limits room to expand margins.

Market Naturally Favours Three-Operator Mix

South Korea has failed to license a fourth operator for the seventh time. This result confirms our view that the existing operators' value creation through converged services and connected objects, coupled with price competition among MVNOs, eliminates an entry point for a new player.

Leviathan Inches Closer To FID

The Leviathan partners have secured a new gas sales agreement to support progress on Israel's largest gas project, though FID remains heavily dependent on finalising the MoU with Shell/BG.