Angolan power generation will increase to more than double the current levels by 2018 with the commissioning of the Laúca hydropower and Soyo combined cycle power plants. A high focus on hydropower investment will leave the power sector vulnerable to power cuts, which we forecast will be balanced out by an eventual uptick in thermal power investment.
Political and security risks will deter investment in Tunisia and will hamper the recovery of the crucial tourism sector. High unemployment and regional economic disparities will continue to fuel resentment among the youth, creating risks of political unrest and radicalisation.
Chinese investment in Ecuador's pharmaceutical and healthcare sector will continue to be pertinent for the country in order for it to meet the increasing demand of medicines within its public healthcare sector. Foreign generic drugmakers will, however, face significant competition from local market leaders.
The deployment of distributed energy solutions (DES) - in the form of both renewable energy and small-scale gas-fired turbines - will increase across Indonesia over the coming years, given the remote nature of many of the islands, the technology's cost-effectiveness and the underdeveloped grid infrastructure.
Global passenger vehicle sales for March and Q116 show a distinct split between markets that are sustaining strong growth achieved over the last year, such as Europe and North America, and those that are yet to bottom out, such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa. This means it is impossible to say there is one global sales trend and carmakers need to be increasingly flexible to their target markets.
As the popularity of indigenous content grows and smartphone penetration increases, Sub-Saharan African game developers are eyeing the emerging mobile content opportunity. Regional peculiarities, on the one hand, will demand multiple monetisation strategies, while take up, on the other, will be encouraged by a younger demographic and rising household incomes.
CBOT wheat prices will remain on the upside over the remainder of 2016, supported by the global wheat market turning to deficit in the upcoming 2016/17 season along with lower output from the US. Out to 2020, prices will rise moderately as global stocks at all-time highs provide a buffer to small market imbalances.
The competitive market for relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis drugs will limit the potential of short-term breakthroughs. Roche's Ocrevus, as the first drug to treat a progressive form of MS, will see significant gains above RRMS drugs and further research will begin to turn towards progressive therapies due to the high demand. There is still significant room for improvement in RRMS drugs and the competitive market will drive novel solutions for increasing efficacy.
Negative policy interest rates are becoming an increasingly prominent part of central banks' monetary toolkits. Six central banks have so far implemented negative rates, in Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, the eurozone, and most recently, in Hungary. While it is unlikely that it will become much more widespread, particularly among emerging markets, countries including Norway and even reserve-currency countries such as the UK and US could plausibly join the negative rates club should their economic outlooks deteriorate. And for countries that have already introduced them, there is some consideration being given to lower rates even further. BMI's view has been that negative rates are unlikely to be helpful in achieving central bankers' aims, and indeed, are more likely to prove more counterproductive than effective for banking sector activity.
Russia provides significant revenue-earning opportunities for drugmakers specialised in the production of haemophilia treatments. The country has the fifth-largest population of haemophilia patients globally and the highest in Europe. Haemophilia is one of seven rare disease areas that benefits from state reimbursement, allowing all patients to receive the treatment despite its cost. However, the bleak economic outlook for Russia has already led to shrinking healthcare budgets and multinational drugmakers will find revenues squeezed through pricing pressures.