Articles List

Articles List

Stringent Internal Security Regime Keeps Conflict Risks At Bay

China is one of the world's major military powers, and employs a stringent internal security regime which does not tolerate dissent. These factors largely keep conflict risks at bay, as the mainland is unlikely to come under attack by a foreign power and armed opposition is generally dealt with swiftly, reducing security risks for businesses in the country. Nevertheless, the risk of China becoming involved in an interstate conflict remains pertinent due to its dogged pursuit of territorial claims against a range of other Asian states, most of which are backed by the US. In addition, Islamist separatists have mounted an insurgency in the remote northern region of Xinjiang, and proved capable of launching attacks in major cities in 2013.

Debt Issuance Set To Slow

The weakened capital structures of many US E&Ps are increasingly unsustainable under a lower commodity price environment. New debt issuance will be forced into decline from 2016, paving the way for a broader rebalancing of the US oil & gas sector.

Western Sahara Stalemate Poses Risks To Economic Diversification

Morocco will continue to consider Western Sahara as a core issue of its foreign policy over the coming years, increasing the risk of disputes with third parties, and potentially impacting the country's attractiveness for foreign investors.

Increasing Turn To PPPs As Traditional Funding Wanes

SSA governments will increasingly look towards PPP deals for major projects, especially as the cost of borrowing on international markets goes up, but projects' success is not guaranteed.

Floating Wind Power: Start Of The Tech Race

Floating wind turbine technology that can access deep water locations will attract significant interest over the coming decade, as countries such as Norway, France, Japan, Scotland, Portugal and US aim to become frontrunners in the nascent sector.

Commodity Bust Will Heighten Political Risk

The end of the commodity supercycle will heighten political risk for Latin America's oil and metals exporters in the years ahead, creating a more challenging policymaking environment, bolstering social unrest and contributing to higher levels of crime. While Mexico and Central America will escape the fall in commodity prices largely unscathed, these countries will still struggle with elevated levels of drug cartel and gang violence.

NBP Forecast: Global Gas Oversupply Points To Lower Prices

NBP gas prices will trade in a range of between GBP35-GBP40/therm over the next five years as global oversupply in the gas market feeds into lower hub prices and depressed oil prices ensure the price of oil-linked gas contracts remains low.

Companies To Seek Local Market Presence

In light of easing economic sanctions, international drugmakers, both R&D-based and generic drug firms, will seek to gain a local presence in Iran's pharmaceutical market. Import restrictions mean supply opportunities will be very problematic for generic drugmakers without a local presence. The supply of patented drugs will be easier for multinationals, although a local presence will be the ideal scenario for most drugmakers.

Charts Of The Day: Macri Momentum Will Translate To Equity Gains

Significant upside remains for Argentine equities in the weeks ahead, even after the MSCI Argentina benchmark equity index has seen double digits gains following opposition candidate Mauricio Macri's outperformance in the October 25 first round presidential election. Macri is a centre-right candidate from the Propuesta Republicana party, and his platform suggests a significant shift toward more investor-friendly policies, after 12 years of more populist policies under the ruling Frente para la Victoria (see 'Macri Victory Will Significantly Open Economy', November 3). We have recently amended our view, and now expect that Macri will win in the second round.

Russian Airliner Crash: Implications Of Bomb Theory

Suggestions that Metrojet flight 9268 was brought down by a bomb, if verified, demonstrate the risks posed to Russia and Russian interests in the Middle East. These risks also affect Western countries. However, we see little reason to expect a shift in Russian foreign policy.