Growth in Thailand's construction sector will reach 6.0% in 2017 and average 4.7% annually through 2026, among the fastest rates since the global financial crisis and coming on the back of promising progress on the government's infrastructure development plans.
Research and development is now limited in hepatitis, with the decreasing size of the market, due to the increasing number of patients being treated and improving cure rates. There is still a large burden on the world, specifically the low- and middle-income countries, which struggle with the current pricing of the originator treatments. Generic versions will be a crucial development to help reduce the price of treatments and the overall global burden.
This quarter saw minor adjustments to Asia's IT Risk/Reward scores. Japan remains the region's outperformer, showing strong spending in cloud computing infrastructure, services and applications. Improving digital infrastructure in India and Thailand will yield greater returns on investment in their IT markets. Meanwhile, the rapidly maturing Chinese IT market benefits from the strong performance of its IT equipment and services vendors, which are seeing their international expansion plans accelerate through the government's Belt & Road initiative.
Swiss real GDP growth will accelerate to above eurozone averages in 2017-2018 on the back of healthy external demand and an improving labour market. Longer-term headwinds stem from failed tax reform and the potential for rising global protectionism.
Although North Korea refrained from carrying out a new nuclear test around key national anniversaries in April, we believe that the risk of a further missile or atomic weapons test will persist over the coming months. Regional powers will remain vigilant for unexpected developments, with the greatest danger stemming from miscalculation by Pyongyang or the Trump administration.
We highlight Germany, France and Turkey as wind power growth outperformers over the next decade, as strong market fundamentals and robust government support will create a flurry of opportunities for investors.
BMI View: The rising threat of political instability poses an increasing risk to Paraguay's nascent PPP infrastructure programme. The signing in March of the country's first PPP concession is a positive sign of investor confidence but the continued success of the programme will be contingent on the political climate remaining friendly to investment.
The acquisition of Atkins by SNC-Lavalin will broaden the latter's services range and geographic footprint, and signals that the anticipated consolidation in the construction space continues to play out.
South Korea’s presidential election will result in a shift in energy policy with a greater emphasis on renewables at the expense of coal and nuclear power. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector will receive greater support, driven by the need to cater to an ageing population, while the ICT sector stands to benefit from greater R&D spending, as the next government shores up the country’s technological base. Finally, the main candidates’ desire to reform the chaebol should lead to improved corporate governance, including in the construction sector.
The outlook for India's agribusiness sector is positive for the 2017/18 season, amidst early forecasts for normal monsoon rainfall this year. In the longer term, ongoing reforms to the agricultural sector will support slow yield improvement. After a weak start for investment in agriculture at the beginning of his mandate, Narendra Modi has enacted a number of new schemes and allocated more generous funds to the sector aiming at increasing farm income and modernising agriculture. However, efforts to commercialise more GMOs and to reform fertiliser subsidies remain fruitless for now.