Articles List

Articles List

No Fundamental Shift In Policy Following Attack

The suicide bombing on a Shi'a mosque will not fundamentally change Kuwait's relatively low security threats, however it illustrates that the country is not immune from a lone wolf attack. The government will likely increase its ability to detain suspected terrorists, but we do not expect a change in its treatment of minorities - which has generally been one of cooperation, especially compared with neighbours.

Weak Consumer Weighing On Passenger Car Prospects

The strong growth of 15% that we forecast for Greece's passenger car market in 2015 hides the precarious mid to long-term outlook for the market up to the end of our forecast period in 2019. Car sales through to 2019 will continue to remain well below their pre-crisis highs.

Fiscal Pressure To Slow Energy Mix Diversification

Saudi Arabia will register strong growth in new oil and gas-fired capacity over our forecast period as the government attempts to meet growing demand for electricity from an expanding population.

Two Radical Long-Term 'Solutions' To End The Russia-West Stand-Off

There are two radical 'solutions' to end the Russia-West geopolitical stand-off. The first would entail a formal agreement that non-NATO states in Eastern Europe would remain outside the Western alliance in perpetuity. The second would see the accession of Russia itself into NATO. Neither is likely to transpire for at least another decade.

A New, Less Impressive Norm In Tech Sector Floats

Historically, tech sector floats have been the rock stars in the US initial public offering (IPO) arena, raising eye-watering valuations and posting headline-grabbing returns in the aftermarket. While still broadly popular among equity capital market (ECM) investors in 2015 to-date, a new 'norm' of more moderate tech floats has entered the market - ones with less impressive returns, lower valuation multiples and more cautious pricing.

Registration Fee Hike Will Further Shrink Democratic Space

Barring a popular uprising - unlikely at present - President Jammeh will remain in power for the next decade. Recent moves to hike the cost of running in elections will further shrink the country's dwindling democratic freedoms.

NAWE Power: Key Regional Themes

The US will remain the most attractive power market within the North American and Western Europe region as continued availability of cheap natural gas and political support to renewables will give certainty to investors.

Truck Manufacturers Will Be Least Affected By Conflict

Ukraine's sole heavy truck manufacturer, AvtoKrAZ, will outperform its domestic peers over the next five years. However, all indigenous vehicle manufacturers will continue to struggle with falling sales and a deteriorating business environment over the next two years.

Progressive Reimbursement Policies Will Attract Orphan Drugmakers

While Slovenia is currently missing crucial elements of the infrastructure needed to manage rare diseases, such as a national registry and broader screening policies, the country presents significant commercial opportunities for orphan drugmakers owing to its progressive reimbursement policies towards orphan drugs and patients with rare diseases.

EM Monetary Policy Turning Hawkish

Inflation and interest rate cycles are generally turning upward across emerging markets and a number of key central banks have adopted a more hawkish tone of late. We expect the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey to hike rates from current levels by year-end. Interest rate markets are insufficiently hawkish in Chile, and overly hawkish in Poland.