Articles List

Articles List

Mozambique over Tanzania for onshore LNG

East Africa's gas development is likely to face further delays as companies struggle to secure sufficient contracts in an oversupplied market, limiting their ability to finance capital-intensive projects. The possible entry of ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum into Mozambique presents significant upside to its onshore project reaching FID before Tanzania.

Key risks to watch in Q416

Following the UK's vote to leave the EU in June we highlighted the potential for systemic crises to re-emerge across the eurozone given weak growth, rising euroscepticism and a crippled banking sector (see 'Brexit Contagion Could Reignite Eurozone Crisis', June 28). Despite a period of relative market calm, tail risks remain elevated. We note the precarious state of the Portuguese economy and ongoing stress in systemically important banks in Italy and Germany as key risks to watch in the coming months.

FARC peace to offer long-term benefits

The formal cessation of hostilities between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) will result in long-term improvements to the Colombian economy. Although security risks will remain, infrastructure development and public works programmes will integrate more of the country into the national economy.

Palm oil: Tight market for now, prices to ease in 2017

Palm oil prices will remain supported and trade within the MYR2,350-2,800/tonne range over the rest of 2016. Although the 2015-2016 El Niño ended in May, the two waves of dry weather recorded in South East Asia will continue to impact yields in the coming months and lead to the first decline in global production since 1997/98 in 2015/16. We maintain our view for palm oil prices to average lower in 2017, at MYR2,350/tonne, as we expect supply to pick up in 2016/17.

Three 'Millennial' trends for big-box retailers to target

One of our recurring themes for 2016 has been the challenging sales environment for Big-Box retailers as consumers no longer demonstrate a preference for out-of-town hypermarkets and department stores. We have identified three key trends that will be vital for retailers to attract millennial shoppers and maintain long-term sales growth.

Pemex will pull down regional Capex in 2017

Capital expenditure in Latin America will fall an estimated 6.0% in 2017 as low oil prices and high debt levels prolong state-owned producers' austere investment strategies. The decline in Pemex's budget will reduce total spending across the region as a whole, undermining production growth.

Political stability improving on FDI

The Moroccan government is capitalising on foreign investment to foster growth in the less developed regions of the country. This will gradually reduce economic inequalities between regions, and reinforce political stability on the long term.

Asia pacific MGR outlook: retailers to target developing Asia

Developed Asia's mass grocery retail sector will present limited organic growth opportunities as these markets are near saturation. Highly urbanised lifestyles and consumer affluence will drive the demand for convenience, benefitting small format stores and online food retailing. In contrast, developing Asia holds tremendous organic growth opportunities on the back of low mass grocery retail penetration, rising incomes and improving economic openness. However, we do note, growth opportunities in these markets will yield dividends over the medium-to-long term.

September 2016 - Broad Recovery But Three Notes Of Caution

Broadly speaking, we expect the modest recovery of emerging markets from severe weakness to continue, and for developed markets to continue 'muddling through' a patch of economic weakness. But despite this apparent return to form for the global economy, we accompany these forecasts with some notes of significant caution.