Articles List

Limited Financing Options May See Etisalat Walk Away

Etisalat's reluctance to address its debt obligations in Nigeria hints at dissatisfaction with the unit's inability to progress. It may, therefore, be prepared to walk away from the business, with far-reaching implications for Nigeria's highly-competitive mobile market.

US Protectionism: Industry Impacts At Home And Abroad

The Trump administration will drive a realignment of global trade flows in the coming years, with significant implications for various industries. More protectionist US trade policy will have an impact in both the US and abroad, particularly for aerospace, autos, agribusiness, electronics and machinery. Beyond the next couple of years, we expect a degree of compromise between the US and its trading partners that could roll back US tariffs in return for more liberalised international services trade.

Global Renewables Dominance To Continue

China's renewables industry will remain the largest in the world by total installed capacity over the coming decade, with close to 190GW of renewables capacity added between 2016 and 2026. Underpinning this vast growth is the Chinese government's commitment to diversifying the country's coal-heavy power sector to incorporate less polluting sources into the mix.

Moderate Coalition Ahead As Populist Right Fails To Make Inroads

The political and policy environment of the Netherlands will remain broadly stable in the coming years following the poor election result for the right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV), which will not be in government. We expect to see a centre-right coalition government under incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte take shape over the coming months.

New Harvest Will Forestall Rate Hikes

Inflation is likely to cool in East Africa in H217, as a new harvest bolsters maize supplies across the region, tempering food price pressures. That said, crop yields will remain vulnerable to the impact of extreme weather patterns, sporadically threatening not only growth across the region but increasing the risk of bouts of severe social unrest.

Republicans In Texas To Grow Divisive Over Policy Agenda

Texan Republicans emboldened by President Donald Trump's presidential victory will look to foment a more socially conservative policy agenda in 2017 and 2018. Fiscal conservatives led by Governor Greg Abbott in contrast will prioritise budget cuts and business reforms instead, leading to a divisive legislative session.

Cotton: Chinese Imports Revival To Push Prices Higher In 2018

Cotton prices will remain supported over most of 2017 compared with the low levels seen in H214-H116 and average USc69.50/lb this year, compared with USc64.00/lb in 2016. We hold a bullish view on cotton prices on a multi-year horizon, as the market will continue to slowly but surely tighten. We forecast the market to remain in deficit, which will help global stocks - especially in China - gradually decline, clearing the oversupply accumulated over 2011/12-2014/15.

Falling Mexican Confidence Not Derailing LatAm Sales

Latin America will be the strongest performing region for vehicle sales in 2017 growing by 6.2%. Sales will be buoyed by a broad recovery in Brazil and Argentina as well as currency stability and trade policy improvements in commodity exporting economies like Ecuador. Mexico will also continue contributing to growth but at a slower rate as consumer confidence weakens in the face of economic uncertainty and rising fuel costs.

Early 5G Still Needs A Business Case

The earlier standardisation of 5G is to avoid too great a fragmentation of the technology. Demand will remain niche at launch, as there is yet no real business case for 5G services. However, we expect 5G to develop more strongly where 4G has been successful, meaning that both the US and Asian markets will outperform their European counterparts.

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