Articles List

OPEC To Tip Market Back Into Surplus

OPEC's intervention in 2017 will ultimately extend rather than shorten the current period of oversupply. The rewards of the group's action are far outweighed by the risks stemming from the return of cut barrels to the market next year.

Cross-Strait Ties To Remain Challenging

The ending of diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favour of China by Panama reinforces our view that China will continue to seek to curtail Taiwan’s international space amid increasingly challenging bilateral relations. Cross-Strait ties are unlikely to improve anytime over the near future in the run up to the 19th Party Congress in China, but we do not expect this to have a negative impact on Taiwan's economic growth and maintain our forecast for real GDP to expand by 2.0% in 2017.

Diabetes Epidemic Will Boost Commercial Opportunities For Drugmakers And Device Companies

Mexico's diabetes epidemic will continue to provide revenue-earning opportunities for multinational pharmaceutical and device manufacturers. Rooted in continued unhealthy behaviour, the escalating diabetes-related health expenditure will drive the enforcement of preventative measures and the use of treatments in both the private and public sectors. Further government action, motivated by the positive outcomes of the tax on sugary drinks, will help attenuate the prevalence of the disease in Mexico.

Labour Market To Be First Test Of Macron's Reformist Credentials

French President Emmanuel Macron's labour market reform has a high probability of being implemented after his party won an absolute majority in the National Assembly, giving him a strong mandate. The reform, which aims to reduce labour market rigidities, will be met with popular opposition and be a crucial first test of Macron's ability to govern and pass unpopular reform measures.

Growth Accelerating, But AGOA Cancellation Remains A Pertinent Risk

Lesotho's economic growth will accelerate gradually in the coming quarters, as rising textile exports help to offset the drag of continued weak remittance inflows and fiscal revenues. That said, the risks to growth lie to the downside, with Lesotho facing a continued threat to its tariff free access to the US consumer market.

Amazon Goes 'All-In' On Groceries

Amazon has sent a clear sign to global grocery retailers with its game-changing acquisition of Whole Foods, creating synergies between its own online platform and the latter's offline brick and mortar stores. We present a number of moves we expect to see Amazon implement over the coming two to three years, as it attempts to reverse same-store decline at Whole Foods and become a genuine threat to established grocery chains.

Sugar: Further Downside Ahead Over Coming Quarters

Although the downside for sugar prices will be limited in the coming weeks, we are bearish from spot levels over a multi-quarter horizon. The global market will continue to loosen in the coming quarters, especially with the strong post-El Niño rebound in production in India and Thailand. Our view for the Brazilian real to weaken in the coming months will also weigh on sugar prices.

New MVNOs To Drive Market Transformation

New MVNO players will contribute to transforming the Senegalese market from price to service-oriented competition. These new entrants will allow network operators to invest further in developing advanced services to grow revenues, when a new network operator would just exacerbate price competition.

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