Articles List

Articles List

Northern Unrest Provides Space For Terrorists

Two major security incidents in Mali in July have highlighted how the country remains at significant risk of destabilisation. While this is a threat primarily in the north of the country, an escalation of lawlessness there opens the door to terrorist attacks in the economically more prosperous south, with significant risks for economic growth.

Reasons For Optimism In Long-Term Coca-Cola Strategy

The Coca-Cola Company has posted disappointing half-year results for 2016 amid underperformance in developing markets and an ongoing slowdown in carbonated drinks sales. While the company will continue to be challenged by health-conscious trends, we believe planned transformations in the business model will lead to a more positive outlook over the long term.

Tax Policy Threatening Ride-Sharing Strategies

The imposition of a tax on the car-sharing industry in a number of large US cities will drag on the uptake of the service in both the short and long term. As a result, ride-hailing services will become a cheaper alternative transport option.

PLN: Rebound On Its Way

The Polish zloty will strengthen in the months ahead due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and a rising real interest rate differential with the eurozone. Investor risk aversion on the back of a eurozone banking crisis or a widening rift between Brussels and Warsaw would undermine the zloty over the long term.

Emerging Markets To Drive Carrefour

As many emerging markets look to have bottomed out, Carrefour should benefit from a return to economic growth and consumer spending in these countries. At present, emerging markets account for around 26% of Carrefour’s sales mix, and this is expected to rise as developed markets slow down.

Need For Fibre Investment Calls For 'Operator-As-A-Service'

The need for fibre investments in Europe calls for a new model, with distinct companies each focusing on infrastructure and services, under what we have called 'operator-as-a-service'. The limited changes to the current system will not lead to the level of investment required, as operators are financially constrained and must focus their efforts outside core infrastructure to stay relevant.

Mine Services To Target High-Value Commodities, Technology

Mine services companies will increasingly target better-performing commodities and focus on technology research and development to help miners streamline operations and cut costs as the weak mineral price environment continues to weigh on profit margins.

Joining The Dots: Our Key Themes

Several key themes link the many long-term (10+ year) economic and political trends that we have been promoting. Two of the most important include developed market populism and ageing demographic profiles.

Low Price Climate To Drive Consolidation

Australian and Brazilian iron ore producers will continue to drive global iron ore production, while Chinese firms will lose market share due to their position at the higher end of the cost scale.

ASEAN Palm Oil Companies: Four Key Trends

The palm oil sector is on track to record a small improvement in performance in 2016, helped by higher palm oil prices. However, challenges will return in 2017, as prices will head lower. Amid this lacklustre environment, companies are focusing on efficiency gains, and the largest players are moving up the value chain towards the oleochemical segment, which will improve the outlook for the sector in the longer term.