Articles List

CEE Infrastructure: Key Themes For 2017

Fiscal weakness across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2017 will heighten the importance of development funding in driving infrastructure growth, particularly in Central Asian markets and in the rail sectors of countries throughout CEE. Poor bureaucratic capacity in preparing viable projects in a timely manner will prevent the full benefits of this funding being felt. Political risk will remain elevated in the CEE region in 2017.

2017 Budget Signals Further Commitment To Transformation

The 2017 budget marks a historical step in Saudi Arabia's economic transformation, offering a greater degree of transparency to foreign investors while also laying out the country's first medium-term public spending plan. Coupled with a gradually increasing oil revenues on the back of higher Brent crude prices and a spate of new proposals aimed at widening the tax base, this will see Saudi Arabia's budget return to surpluses by 2020.

Weekly Recap: Acceleration In Industrial Profits Growth Is Unsustainable

Industrial profits grew by 14.5% y-o-y in November versus 9.8% y-o-y in the prior month due to rising sales and producer prices. However, the strong increase in profits - particularly those related to the heavy industry - is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, as slowing manufacturing and real estate investment growth will more than offset support from infrastructure investment.

Growing Demand For Services Tempered By Cost-Containment Measures

Europe's ageing demographics will continue to drive demand for treatment, particularly for chronic disease medicines. This presents private healthcare providers with significant business expansion and revenue-earning opportunities, especially as governments try to evolve healthcare services while keeping costs contained. The Emerging European markets will experience marked growth in comparison to their more developed Western peers, given the heightened focus on healthcare access expansion.

Breast Cancer To Benefit From Increased Pharmaceutical/Diagnostic Synergies

The first-line setting in breast cancer will be pursued by big pharma as it has the potential to widen revenue streams. Despite breast cancer having a relatively low death rate, pharmaceutical developers will continue to chase this indication to offer alternatives to surgery. Improved understanding of underlying disease drivers will continue to segmentalise the market and the greatest development activity will occur within these niches. This will increase the activity and partnerships in the in vitro diagnostics field as further targeted products enter pipelines.

EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement: Opportunities For European Wine Industry

An EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement would open up expansion opportunities for Europe's biggest wine-producing nations - notably France, Italy and Spain. We forecast strong growth in Japan's underdeveloped wine market over the long term, driven by rising incomes and increasingly sophisticated drinking preferences.

Our Top Charts Of 2016

2016 has been a tumultuous year for Latin America from a country risk perspective, characterised by deep recessions, an often volatile and changing political landscape, as well as early indications of meaningful reforms. The region's high degree of exposure to global events, such as the election of Donald Trump as the next US president and a rebound in global commodity prices have seen the exchange rates of the region's two largest economies - Brazil and Mexico - become both the best and the worst performing currencies among emerging markets (respectively). With the year drawing to a close and 2017 already shaping up to be no less impactful for the economic and political trajectories of Latin American countries, we review five of the most important charts of 2016 below.

BSP Will Be Forced To Hike Rates In 2017

While we expect the BSP to maintain a neutral monetary stance through Q117, we believe that the central bank will be forced to hike its benchmark RRP rate by 50bps to 3.50% before end-2017. We expect the BSP to tighten its monetary policy stance as inflationary pressures rise, while it attempts to stem capital outflows amid a more aggressive rate hike cycle in the US. Furthermore, strong economic growth momentum will provide the BSP to hike rates.

Budget Approval Boosts Government Stability; Postpones Debt Reduction

The approval of the 2017-2018 budget brings additional stability to the Netanyahu government and raises its chances of completing its term, already enhanced by the enlargement of the ruling coalition in May 2016. The expansionary budget delays the debt reduction objectives, but carries limited risk to Israel's sovereign profile.

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