Articles List

Articles List

Central Asia: Increasing Imports From Russia & Ukraine

The Central Asia region will generally remain self-sufficient in its wheat requirements for the foreseeable future, though imports from Russia and Ukraine will increase as Kazakhstani production will stagnate around current levels.

Upside Risks To 2015/16 EU Wheat Output

Growing conditions for European wheat are favourable across the region, leading to upside risks for our 2015/16 EU-28 wheat production forecast. We currently forecast production to decline by 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015/16, to 145.0mn tonnes.

VW And PSA Boost Slovakian Car Output

Announcements from PSA Peugeot-Citroen and Volkswagen have prompted us to raise our production forecast for Slovakia in 2017. However, as unused capacity remains minimal in the country, we believe output volumes will remain steady over 2015 and 2016 despite growing demand for Slovakian exports.

8 Asian Countries That Have Slipped Down Our Telecoms Rankings

Minor improvements to the average Country Rewards and Country Risks scores for the 28 countries surveyed as part of BMI's Telecoms Industry Risks/Rewards Index are recorded this quarter. A number of countries move up or down the ranking table according to their changing economic, political and demographic fortunes, but those movements are generally fairly limited. The most remarkable changes see China fall four places to ninth position, while New Zealand climbs three places to fifth place. Amended Industry Rewards scores were also recorded by several countries this quarter as a result of market consolidation reducing the number of effective players and heightened price competition that continues to drive down revenues and profit margins.

UK's Weald Basin Yields Long-Term Production Upside

Positive results from the onshore Horse Hill-1 well highlight the large resource potential of the Weald basin. The results will boost exploration in the area, providing onshore upside risk to our UK oil reserves and production forecasts past 2020.

Africa after the Commodity Boom: the New Growth Path

The growth drivers in SSA will evolve by default, not design. Exports will become less important, while private consumption and investment rise in prominence as a consequence. They will not pick up the slack, though, and growth will be slower on average.

Iran to Attract Western Food & Drink Firms Following Nuclear Deal

The relaxation of Western sanctions will boost consumer confidence in Iran and lead to a progressive increase in investment in the country's food and drink sector, as the lifting of banking and shipping sanctions reduces costs of transportation and transaction. Investment will be gradual as inefficient bureaucratic procedures will continue to undermine the operational environment, even with the lifting of sanctions.

Limited Impact On ICT From Trans-Pacific Partnership

The introduction of the TPP is being hailed as a game-changer for a number of different industries. For the ICT sector, however, we see the agreement as having limited impact across the board, as most markets are already undergoing widespread development. However, we note a few instances where the TPP could have a tangible effect, provided governments such as Vietnam are willing to accept these changes.

Pharmaceutical Market Forecasts Revised Upwards

Estonian pharmaceutical sales posted larger than expected growth in 2014, and we have revised our ten year forecasts upwards to reflect this new data. We expect pharmaceutical sales growth to decelerate in 2015 as the impact of the Russian slowdown moderates economic activity. With Estonia seeing external tailwinds from the eurozone and Scandinavian countries, we expect a reacceleration of growth in pharmaceutical sales in 2016. Western-Russian relations will continue to present downside risk to our forecasts.