Articles List

Articles List

The Next President: Implications For The Middle East

A Hillary Clinton presidency would entail a more pro-active foreign policy in the Middle East, while a Donald Trump presidency would potentially be more isolationist and critical of US allies in the region. Both presidencies would increase geopolitical risks in the region, but for different reasons.

Generic Drugmaker Revenue Earning Opportunities To Rise In The GCC

The Gulf Cooperation Council's pharmaceutical market offers significant growth potential within the generic drugs sector. Driven by cost-containment measures, growing awareness, and boosts to domestic manufacturing capabilities, generic medicines will increasingly penetrate the region's pharmaceutical market. Although generic medicines will remain an important segment of the regional market, patented medicines will continue to dominate the region's pharmaceutical market over the long-term given the preference for branded products among both prescribers and consumers.

Limited Construction Impact In Europe From Brexit

There will be limited direct impact on European construction sectors from Brexit, with growth implications only for those markets with significant economic ties to the UK. Some Central and Eastern European (CEE) infrastructure markets will lose out from the withdrawal of UK contributions to the EU's budget, but to what extent is as of yet unclear.

US Aviation To Grow, Emerging Asia To Soar

The United States will continue to experience aviation growth albeit at a slower pace than previously, while Asia will extend its position as the centre for aviation growth and therefore jet fuel demand.

AfD Gains Highlight Public Concern About Migrant Crisis

A heavy defeat for Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU in the Mecklenburg-West Pomerania state election will serve to further polarise both her party and the German electorate. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany will remain an electoral force dragging national policy to the right, and the rising groundswell of opinion against immigration will continue to pose threats to the Schengen zone.

US Election: Clinton Victory Will Not Derail Production Recovery

The election of Hillary Clinton as president of the US will not impede the oil and gas sector's return to growth in 2017. Donald Trump's outright support for fracking would improve investor morale but neither candidate will significantly impact the sector given the importance of state-level regulations along with global pricing and demand dynamics.

Asia's Tobacco Markets To Buck Downward Trend

A weak economic growth outlook and tightening regulation in core tobacco markets will further exacerbate a multi-year downward trend in tobacco volume consumption. We believe that discretionary spending will increasingly come under pressure in these markets, accelerating the pace of volume decline. With that said, developing Asian economies will present robust growth opportunities on the back of favourable consumer dynamics, particularly in Indonesia, our top pick for the region.

Brexit: Mixed Impact With A Silver Lining

Brexit could result in metal supply disruptions from the UK and hurt EU's metals demand. Meanwhile, Brexit could offer a silver lining for European metal sectors in the areas of R&D, metals supply and environmental regulations.

Supply-Side Reforms To Gain Traction, But Progress Unlikely To Be Smooth

The Chinese central government remains committed to implementing supply-side reforms, but the path to progress is likely to be gradual and bumpy. We expect Beijing to accelerate the pace of its measures to curb overcapacity; continue cutting costs for companies; and show more restraint when using leverage to promote economic growth. However, Beijing will continue to face difficulties in reducing inventory levels in the property sector.

Essential Spending To Dominate In Retail Sector

The Philippines' retail sector will experience robust growth over the next ten years on the back of a positive consumer outlook. Due to low-incomes, spending in the retail sector will largely be subsistence based, benefitting food & drink segments. We believe that the quick service restaurant and mass grocery retail sectors will outperform over the coming years on the back of rising urbanisation and retail sector development. Over the long term, robust economic growth and positive demographics trends will create favourable conditions for premiumisation and discretionary spending.