Articles List

Digitalisation Gaining Ground

As companies position themselves to remain cost competitive in a subdued commodity price environment, the role for digital technologies in the O&G sector will grow.

Western Europe Infrastructure: Strong Growth Tightens Competition

Western Europe's construction market will remain highly competitive, reflective of the attractiveness of the region. The market offers a combination of growth, scale and depth of regulations unmatched globally. For these factors, investor confidence remains positive for the region as a whole despite heightened political and security risks.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Still Buffet Regional CE Outlook

Oil and commodity-dependent Sub Saharan African markets were the main movers in this quarter's update to our Middle East & Africa Consumer Electronics (CE) Risk/Reward Index. Building on the expansion of our baseline dataset begun in Q217, we have added full-year 2016 industry data and factored in the latest macroeconomic analysis produced by our Country Risk team. The overall score for the region fell by 1.7 points as a result.

EGP: Broad Stability With Gentle Depreciation

The Egyptian pound has found its bottom after its sharp post-float depreciation, and we expect broad stability over the next six months. Looking further ahead, we expect a slow depreciation in the currency if the central bank abides to its pledge to not intervene in the market, driven by high inflation and slow gains in exports, but this will not be of the magnitude seen in 2016.

EU Legal Action To Elevate Tensions

The European Commission's decision to commence infringement proceedings against the Hungarian government fits into a general trend of rising political and operational risks in Hungary. Although the commission's eventual response is difficult to predict, tensions between the two will continue to escalate. Alongside Prime Minister Viktor Orban's increasingly populist stance, this will lead to a worsening political environment and deteriorating investor sentiment.

Cobalt: Production Growth To Fall Short Of Demand

Global cobalt ore production growth will be supported by higher prices of nickel and copper in the coming years as the mineral is a by-product of nickel and copper mining. Another important, but secondary driver of growth, will be increasing cobalt prices, which skyrocketed by 38% in 2016 on the back of stronger consumption growth owing to the rechargeable battery market.

Nuclear Expansion To Face Significant Hurdles

South Africa's nuclear agenda will face headwinds over the coming years - stemming from legal obstacles, public opposition, the financial constraints at Eskom and construction delays typically associated with nuclear power plants.

German Consumer Spending Focusing On Health

While 2017 will see household spending in Germany moderate from highs in 2015 and 2016, the strong consumer outlook and robust economic growth will ensure consumption is buoyed. This will skew slightly in favour of non-essentials, as rising wages and greater disposable income will benefit these categories. That being said, essentials still play a huge role in consumer spending, with utilities prices forecast to rise and continue to account for a large bulk of household budgets. Health spending will be our outperforming sub-sector, as the population becomes progressively older with more demand for health care products and services.

GSK Revenue Streams To Be Challenged In 2017

While GSK reported a growth in turnover in Q117 sales, new CEO Emma Walmsley, will continue to face uncertainty with regards to the company's revenue stream, which is heavily determined by its core respiratory therapy area, and in particular its bestselling drug, Advair. GSK has been bracing itself for the arrival of generic Advair since the expiry of its US patent in 2010. In March 2017, the company won a short-term reprieve from the threat of generic Advair when the US FDA delayed approval of Mylan's copy of the inhaler for asthma and chronic lung disease. However, in April 2017, Teva unveiled a fixed-dose combination product containing the same active ingredients as GSK's blockbuster and Hikma confirmed that it's ANDA for fluticasone propionate and salmeterol inhalation powder had been accepted for filing by the US FDA._x000d_

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