Articles List

Trump Presidency: Three Scenarios For China

It is very likely that US President Donald Trump will be able to carry out some of his campaign promises against China due to the upswing in support against globalisation and the domestic perception that US jobs are being lost to China. Below, we lay out three potential scenarios for US-China relations under Trump and their respective implications for economics and politics.

Hidden Risks To The Global Economy In 2017

In this feature, we identify nine 'hidden risks', which would prove to be surprising or have negative consequences for business and investment, and add to the sense of a dangerous or volatile world. These do not represent our core views, and we certainly do not afford them equal probability. In some cases, the risks represent pure speculation on our part. But we deem them worth considering.

Voice Control Key To Putting Robots In The Home, But Risks Abound

Integrating popular voice control software into the latest generation of non-industrial robots will effectively remove one of the biggest barriers to mass-market adoption of such devices. In consumers' eyes, digital assistant platforms such as Alexa, Siri and Cortana will make robots more useful as lifestyle, entertainment and leisure tools and sales of such devices will accelerate in the next five years. However, issues concerning user security, privacy and safety as well as vastly differing degrees of consumers' comfort with human-robot relations will persist, preventing the technology from fulfilling its potential in the next two to three decades.

Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry To Continue To Expand

The Russian domestic pharmaceutical industry will continue to grow at pace given the restrictive regulations for medicine registration and procurement for those produced outside of the country. While these regulations pose challenges to multinational drugmakers, the importance of the market remains given the country's absolute market size, as well as the positive outlook in the coming years bolstered by economic recovery.

Benin To Reap Rewards From New Economic Plan

Benin's growth prospects will be buoyed by recent economic reforms and the implementation of an ambitious public development plan. However, while the economic outlook will be brighter over the next 10 years than in the previous decade, the challenging operating environment will continue to pose headwinds to foreign investment, tempering more significant economic gains.

Autos Investment Round-Up: Policy Changes Paying Off

A clear and supportive industry policy continues to be an effective tool for governments in attracting investment to the autos sector. Pakistan in particular has the opportunity to transform its competitive landscape with its new industry policy.

10 Key Views On British Politics

The United Kingdom's political system will face a number of major tests over the coming years. Brexit will continue to dominate the news headlines and the command the government's attention, but alongside this there are some key questions that need to be answered regarding the state of the UK's political parties, the future of Britain's international relations, and the likely direction of the government's domestic policy agenda. As such, below we outline our top 10 themes that will impact the British political landscape in 2017 and beyond.

Challenges To Stability Will Persist Despite Political Deal

The December 31 agreement between the government and opposition forces in the DRC, setting a tentative deadline for President Joseph Kabila to leave office, could dampen violence in the country and reduces the risks to political stability. However, the likelihood that the deal will fail remain elevated, especially given the fragmentation of the opposition and seemingly limited protections included in the deal for President Joseph Kabila once he leaves office.

One To Watch: Pakistan Telecoms Market

Within Asia, we identify Pakistan's telecoms market as one to watch. The country's mobile market is far from saturated and both organic subscriptions and 3G/4G adoption will drive growth over the coming years, with operators engaging in price competition and investment to encourage uptake of more value-added services. Pakistan's positive demographics outlook, improved business environment and better macroeconomic fundamentals support strong growth prospects. Nonetheless, operational challenges, a potential slowdown in economic growth and uptick of terrorist activity could all weigh on operators' already low revenues.

China Crisis: Potential Scenarios For Commodity Prices

There is significant risk of a China economic growth crisis in 2017. While such a scenario could be severely negative for commodity prices, we believe this would not necessarily be the case. Ultimately, the policy response of central government to any growth collapse would be the key determinant of commodities performance.




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