Articles List

Challenging Landscape Will Not Deter Pharmaceutical Investors

The underdeveloped nature of Sub-Saharan Africa’s pharmaceutical market will necessitate a tailored market access strategy for drugmakers. Ongoing economic difficulties and government focus on the containment of infectious diseases, in addition to regulatory, pricing and currency challenges, will create a difficult operating landscape. International firms will benefit greatly from identifying the bright spots in the region and avoiding those markets where the risks outweigh the opportunities.

Six Key Themes For Middle East And Africa Agribusiness

Africa will record sustained production deficits in corn and limited growth in palm oil and other agricultural products over the coming years, with the acute threat of a returning El Niño on the horizon. Similarly, countries in the MENA region will need to accommodate growing imports of agricultural commodities, requiring adequate infrastructure and supportive public finances. While GM seed usage in Africa has strong potential, the uptake will be inconsistent. Finally, low-cost fertiliser producers in the MENA region will be bright spots in an oversupplied global market.

CEE Central Banks In No Hurry To Tighten

We are no longer expecting interest rate hikes in 2017 in Poland, Hungary and Romania, where central banks have recently adopted a more dovish stance amid still-subdued core inflation. However, we still believe that the respective central banks may be too sanguine on inflation risks, particularly in Hungary.

Global O&G Spending To Rise 5.1% In 2017

Global capital expenditure on oil and gas will rise 5.1% to USD465bn in 2017 as more efficient upstream operations and more confidence behind a +USD50/bbl oil price, support spending.

Prioritising Asian Crude Sales Over US

Saudi Arabia is shifting its focus to the Asian light crude market looking to combat the increased competitiveness of WTI and Brent-linked cargos. At the same time it is increasing crude prices to the US, which will reduce imports of Saudi crude and help draw down inventories in Q217.

RBI Turns Its Attention To Excess Liquidity While Maintaining Neutral Stance

During its Monetary Policy Review between April 5 and April 6, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left the repo rate unchanged at 6.25% and hiked the reverse repo rate from 5.75% to 6.00%. We maintain our forecast for the MPC to remain on hold over the course of FY2017/18 (April - March) as it seeks to strike a balance between managing inflation expectations and supporting growth. At the same time, a narrower interest rate corridor will help to drain excess liquidity and enhance the overall transmission of monetary policy.

Smooth Path Towards Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility

A strong fiscal position, low inflation, a sound banking system and the broad alignment of the dirham with macro fundamentals underpin our view for a gradual and smooth transition towards a free float in Morocco over the coming years. Greater exchange rate flexibility will be consistent with the kingdom's strategy to attract foreign investment and to become a manufacturing and exporting hub between Europe and Africa.

Tough Times Ahead For Coal-Power Utilities

Chinese companies with a heavy exposure to domestic coal power capacity will face growing operational and financial headwinds over the coming decade as China's power mix shifts away from coal.

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