Articles List

Weekly Market Views: Dollar Overbought And Set To Weaken

After a huge rally over the past few weeks following Donald Trump's election victory, which has taken the US dollar into overbought and overvalued territory, a period of weakness now seems likely. Fed interest rate hike expectations have soared over recent weeks, leaving the door open downside surprises, while EM central banks have been actively stepping in to provide dollars to the market by selling reserves, and are likely to provide further support to their currencies in the event that they face further downside pressure.

Global Agribusiness Post US Election: Winners And Losers

We expect agricultural equities, represented by our modified Bloomberg Food Index, to outperform major equity benchmarks over the coming quarters as a rebound in earnings will see improved share price performance. Agribusiness companies will broadly benefit from some of the macro-economic implications of Donald Trump's presidency, but suffer from some of his other proposals, including stricter immigration enforcement and increased trade protectionism.

Fillon In Pole Position For the Presidency

After emerging as the clear winner in the second round of the Les Républicans primaries, François Fillon is now in pole position to become France's next president in May 2017. However, while many of his right-wing policies will resonate with voters who previously sympathised with the far-right Front National, his liberal economic reform proposals make him an unlikely choice for voters of the left.

Week Ahead: India's GDP To Outperform Despite Headwinds

India will be releasing its Q2FY2016/17 (quarter ending September 2016) GDP figures this week and we expect them to reflect the continued strength of the manufacturing and services sectors. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka will be holding its monetary policy meeting, and we still expect the central bank to tighten further by end-2016 as inflationary pressures remain elevated. Lastly, Indonesia, South Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand will be releasing their inflation figures. We expect inflationary pressures to pick up slightly over the coming months due to rising food and fuel prices.

EM Reform Tracker: Rising Challenges In Korea, But Surprise From Colombia

This last month has seen several developments which will affect reform across many of the emerging markets that we track. We have seen positive developments in India, South Africa and Colombia, which will help with the reform drive. However, countries such as South Korea, Turkey and Venezuela are at risk of moving backwards.

Saturation In Legacy Services Will Demand Market Deepening Strategies

A combination of saturation in legacy mobile and fixed markets and robust growth outlook for 3G/4G and broadband services will require Latin American operators to pursue market deepening strategies. However, differences in the maturity and income profiles of markets within the region will demand strategies that are more responsive to prevailing market fundamentals. Therefore, in more mature markets, we expect operators to deepen reach through service convergence, of which content will be a significant component. In relatively underdeveloped markets, operators will have to develop 'no frills' and paid services aimed at encouraging the consumption of more data on their networks.

Populists Gaining Support Ahead Of 2017 Election

The anti-establishment party, Action for Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), emerged as the political dominant force following senate and regional elections held in October. This puts the party in pole position ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2017.

Operators Still Looking For Ways To Monetise Data

Operators are still looking to drive revenues outside of their core competencies. Personal data and its accompanying analytics can provide such a revenue stream, but operators will face the dual challenge of entering a competitive market and facing greater regulatory scrutiny.

Trump Presidency: Implications For South East Asia

Donald Trump's presidency will affect South East Asian states to varying degrees, with Singapore and Vietnam amongst the most vulnerable to a more protectionist US trade policy and self-interested foreign policy. The overall impact of Trump's presidency on Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia is likely to be neutral, with political ties improving but economic relations weakening somewhat. Trump's tougher trade policy towards China also poses major risks for South East Asia, as Washington's more protectionist stance could undermine intra-regional trade.

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Outlook For 2017: Middle East & North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will be shaped by a range of opportunities and challenges in 2017. Ongoing trends such as the rollout of compulsory health insurance schemes, generic substitution and medical tourism are expected to continue shaping the pharmaceutical market. Challenges will intensify, however, and while discrepancies exist at the country-level, growth is expected to be muted in 2017 as the impact of a slow recovery within the oil sector will continue to impact pharmaceutical spending.

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