We expect passenger vehicle sales in 2016 to be much more subdued than in 2015, with some major emerging markets still to find a bottom to the market. High paced growth in the US will also make way for a more moderate increase, albeit enough to ensure another record year in volume terms.
Reforms to Egypt's health insurance system will provide a much needed boost to the country's ailing healthcare sector. This development highlights the government's increasing will to implement policy reforms within the sector. The reforms will continue to face opposition - if successful, the newly proposed law will impose compulsory monthly subscriptions, thus boosting government revenues and the proportion targeted towards healthcare. Over the long-term, this will drive health expenditure in Egypt, and lead to a noticeable improvement in the delivery of healthcare services. We expect that these changes will lead to a greater contribution from the private sector, which will play a vital role in Egypt's hopes of moving closer to achieving universal health coverage.
Despite ongoing consumer weaknesses, carbonated soft drinks sales will post robust growth throughout our forecast period to 2020. At the industry level, the entry of low-cost manufacturer AJE Group will increase the level of competition. Due to its tremendous branding power, Coca-Cola HBC is less at risk than its competitors.
The strong reversal in oil prices is a very bullish signal and suggests that at the very least some short-term relief for global risk assets is in order, particularly for oil exporting currencies and EM equities. Dynamics in the oil markets also suggest strong potential for excellent returns are to be expected over the coming months.
The launch of new mobile networks in emerging markets, consolidation of key players in mature markets and the perpetual need to replace or upgrade devices to take advantage of new services and technologies will drive further growth of mobile handset sales in 2016 and beyond. Asia and Africa will continue to outperform as replacement cycles lengthen elsewhere in the world.
Village-level solar-powered microgrids will support electrification efforts in SSA, as convenience and the growing competitiveness of off-grid systems will help the region overcome the issues associated with centralised power grids.
El Salvador's pharmaceutical regulation reform will work to reduce pharmaceutical companies' profit margins and impair the country's chronic drug shortage. Although the government is committed to improving its national healthcare system, the country's relatively small pharmaceutical market size, as well as industrial resistance, could act as potential obstacles to the effective implementation of medical legislation and the population's access to fairly-priced and high-quality medicines
Although Poland's new government will run a slightly larger fiscal deficit, government debt dynamics remain in reasonably good shape. The main risk at this juncture is revenue undershoot, as identified revenue sources are optimistic in our opinion.
China's provinces present significant differences in terms of their agricultural production and consumption patterns, creating a range of business opportunities and challenges that are not apparent when looking at the country as a single market. Some outlying provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Xinjiang, will gain prominence over the coming years, while Sichuan and Shaanxi's agriculture sectors will remain on a decline.
While Russia maintains its position as one of the world's biggest power markets, there will be no significant growth in the electricity generation, capacity or consumption over our forecast period to 2025.