Articles List

Snap Election: Conservatives Set For Larger Majority

On April 18 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap general election for June 8. The announcement runs counter to previous statements made to the press by Theresa May and government spokesmen that there would no early general election. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 removed the prime minister's prerogative to request the dissolution of the House of Commons, instead requiring a vote of no confidence or a two-thirds majority in the Commons acquiescing to a vote. PM May will put forward a motion in the Commons on April 19 calling for an early election. In the aftermath of May's speech, leader of the main opposition Labour party Jeremy Corbyn, as well as the leaders of the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, have all stated that their parties will vote in the Commons for the early vote to be held, comfortably clearing the two-thirds hurdle required.

Flipkart-eBay India Deal Just The Start of e-Commerce Expansion

Flipkart's acquisition of eBay India highlights two key aspects of doing business in the country's fast-growing but highly challenging e-commerce market. Firstly, returns on investment will be elusive, even in the long-term, due to the low-value capital-intensive nature of the Indian market. Secondly, consolidation in the short term will not starve the market of competition.

Europe Autos Sales: Competition Key To Global Outperformance

Europe is the strongest performing region as measured by BMI's latest Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index due mainly to its higher rewards scores and more stable economic and political backdrop. European countries are home to the healthiest markets in terms of competition and general vehicle ownership rates. The region's scores are, however, dragged down by industry risks; namely, low vehicle replenishment rates across the region.

Convenience The Key As Carrefour's Turnaround Continues

Carrefour posted solid results for FY16 (Jan-Dec 2016), achieving its fifth-consecutive year of organic sales growth as the world's second largest grocery player continues to roll out its multi-format strategy. We believe this positive momentum will be carried forward into 2017, with the company setting a target of 3 to 5% revenue growth for the full-year.

Limited Impact Of Political Tensions On RUB And Fixed Income

We do not expect the recent flare-up of political tensions between Russia and the West to have a material impact on the Russian rouble or government debt, both of which will remain supported by large interest rate differentials, Russia's strong sovereign profile, and falling inflation expectations.

Dangerous Fortnight Ahead For Korean Peninsula

BMI View: The Korean Peninsula will pass through a dangerous fortnight in the second half of April, as the North is likely to test a nuclear device or long-range missile, and the US steps up its naval presence in the region. If one or both sides miscalculate, a major military crisis could transpire.

The Short-Term Attraction Of UK Inbound M&A

With local currency weakness expected to continue in the near term, we note that the window for UK-targeted M&A activity remains wide open in 2017. The rally in announced takeover deals only has a finite amount of time to run, however, and we are predicting that activity will begin to slow across the course of H217. We point to 1) a longer-term strengthening of the currency; 2) rising inflation due to sterling's continued weakness; and 3) elevated levels of political risk surrounding the UK's withdrawal from the European Union (EU) now that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has officially been triggered, as the catalysts to this trend.

Oil FX: MYR & NOK Our Favourite Picks

Oil prices have held support and look technically bullish. Currencies of oil exporters should thus benefit, but the outlook varies across countries. We believe that the Malaysian ringgit and the Norwegian krone are best placed to benefit from a continued oil price rally, while the Canadian dollar, Colombian peso, and particularly the Russian rouble, have already priced in an oil price recovery to some extent.

Monthly FX Strategy: EM FX Outperformance Maybe Coming To An End

We see growing risks to EM FX on the whole, and see potential for the USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP to outperform EM FX after a long period of underperformance. That said, there are still some bright spots within EM, such as the MXN, COP, MYR, and PHP.

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