Falling crude oil production in Egypt will be mitigated by increased condensate and NGLs output from new natural gas developments. Greater refinery throughput of lighter oil will increase yields of gasoline and LPGs, reducing imports and the subsidy burden.
Our expectation for a deal on Iran's nuclear programme - leading to an unwinding in sanctions - will limit depreciation in the rial, but not result in appreciation. Downside pressures on the currency are relatively small at this stage as illustrated by the narrowing gap between the black market and official rate, however a lack of FDI, current account deficits and high inflation will ensure the currency weakens.
China's construction sector is undergoing a structural slowdown, as the country shifts from an investment driven model which focused on fiscal stimulus measures targeting the infrastructure sector. Opportunities remain substantial, however, given the country's large infrastructure deficit and ongoing reforms to spur private investment and improve regional connectivity through its 'One Belt One Road' initiative.
Our views for 2015 are for the most part playing out, or we still expect them to play out. Low oil prices will remain the key macroeconomic dynamic causing a growth convergence between oil importers. In addition, we highlight a recent view to play out over the coming months - a breakthrough in Iran negotiations.
IoT strategy will follow two trends: greater partnerships within the enterprise segment to cater the needs of multinationals, while the consumer segment will remain national as part of deepening strategies. Operators will also need to become more open about the reality of their connected strategy, as it becomes an important part of their business.
Western Europe's coffee market will become much more competitive than the US over the next few years, especially in the single-serve category. The coffee sector is close to saturation in many parts of continental Europe, while there is strong room for growth in the US. In addition, competition will intensify in Europe following the Mondelez-DE Master Blenders deal, while Keurig Green Mountain will maintain its dominant position in the US.
While corporate lending has largely been dragging its feet in Latin America in 2015, as weaker real GDP growth and tightening monetary policy have dampened both asset and loan growth across the region, BMI notes that the Mexican loan market has been bucking the downward trend thanks to the relative health of its commercial banking sector. Indeed, Dealogic data shows that Mexican borrowers account for 41% of the Latin American loan market in the year-to-date (y-t-d), with facilities worth a combined USD7.9bn having been issued to corporate borrowers. This lending tally represents a market share of activity for Mexico that is up 28 percentage points from the 2014 y-t-d, and stands at the highest y-t-d proportion since 2009, when it stood at 42%. The average loan deal size from Mexican borrowers has followed the trend of the broader regional market and has risen to a level of USD786m so far in 2015, up from just USD512mn a year earlier, another y-t-d record.