Articles List

Robust Growth Disguises Build-Up Of Risks

Economic growth in Romania will remain robust by EU average standards in the years ahead, although current strong growth rates will prove unsustainable as fiscal and monetary policies tighten in the face of rising overheating risks. Uncertainty about the government's agenda will provide an additional headwind to investor confidence.

Irish Biosimilar Policy Will Need To Incentivise And Increase Use

For Ireland to increase its usage of biosimilars, with only 11 of the 28 EU-approved biosimilars currently reimbursed, a balanced and measured approach will be required. In providing this biosimilar markets background document, the Irish consultation on creating a biosimilar medicines policy has provided an essential snapshot of biosimilar policies in a number of EU countries. Legislation is clearly important in encouraging biosimilar uptake, but on its own is not enough; one particular observation the paper makes again highlights the importance of education, both of patients and caregivers, in order to maximise the uptake of biosimilars.

Affordability And Infrastructure Threaten Nigus Enfinity's EV Plans

Nigus Enfinity's plans to start importing EVs into Nigeria from 2018 and assembling these vehicles by 2020 will meet considerable challenges in the form of affordability issues faced by the majority of Nigerians, an unreliable power supply and non-existent charging infrastructure.

No Further Hikes Until 2018

The UAE will maintain interest rates at current levels over the remainder of 2017, followed by a cumulative 100 basis points of hikes over 2018-2019. This is in line with our interest rate forecasts for the US, as the Central Bank of the UAE will seek to maintain the differential between the two rates, so as not to exert undue pressure on the Dirham's peg to the dollar.

C/A Deficit To Narrow But Financing Risks Still Present

Ukraine's current account deficit will narrow over the next two years, as impact of the Donbas trade blockade on steel exports subsides and agricultural exports remain strong. That said, rebounding import demand for consumer and capital goods will keep the current account firmly in negative territory, which will keep financing risks relatively elevated as FDI struggles to recover.

Diversified Financing Necessary To Sustain Belt And Road Investment

Investment into the Belt and Road will remain a priority of the Chinese government, with policy banks, dedicated funds and state-owned commercial banks providing the bulk of financing. Crucial to the longer term sustainability of the initiative will be increasing private capital participation and this will necessitate greater de-risking of projects and increased scrutiny in project selection.

Contrasting Outlooks For Patented And Generic Drugmakers

Innovative pharmaceutical manufacturers will continue to face significant market access barriers in Russia; however, prospects for generic medicine sales remain strong. While increasingly aggressive state policies to promote domestic medicine production will pose challenges, localisation of production will enable drugmakers to circumvent these challenges and benefit from high levels of medicine demand.

Nuclear Tensions To Persist, Even If Dialogue Resumes

Nuclear tensions between North Korea and its neighbours will persist for the foreseeable future, even if dialogue resumes. Pyongyang is determined to perfect its intercontinental nuclear missile capabilities and will not give up its arsenal, but could eventually agree to a freeze in return for diplomatic and economic incentives from Washington.

Inflation Inevitable From Bond Note Expansion

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's decision to more than double the size of its bond note programme will see inflation move more firmly into positive territory over the coming months as the money supply increases further. The effect will be compounded by the likelihood of shortages of imported goods as the supply of hard currency with which to access foreign goods continues to fall.




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