Articles List

Articles List

FX Weakness: Compounding Hawkish Shift in Emerging Markets Monetary Policy

The broad shift towards hawkish monetary policy in emerging markets will remain in play over the coming months as central banks become increasingly wary of inflationary pressures. By year-end, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey, among others, will hike rates from current levels.

Uber Disadvantaged by Latin America's Unionism

Uber Technologies will be hit with more regulatory restrictions, fines and bans as governments in Latin America crackdown on taxi licensing. This threatens to derail the company's regional expansion plans and will give its less disruptive competitors more of an advantage.

Chinese Yuan Devaluation: Global Implications

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) decided today to devalue the yuan by 1.9% against the US dollar - the biggest devaluation for the yuan since 1993. Our Asia team has written on the shifting outlook for the yuan and its impact on China in particular (see 'Yuan Devaluation Warns Of More To Come'), but here are a few of our initial thoughts on the global impact of the devaluation.

Sakhalin Targeted To Stem Condensate Growth

The US is adding major gas condensate fields to the list of sanctioned assets in order to increase pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. Production of condensate has been a major driver in Russian oil production growth since sanctions were implemented.

Communicable Diseases Will Remain Greatest Burden

Communicable diseases will continue to dominate Botswana's disease profile, with HIV/AIDS posing the greatest burden. The government's provision of free antiretroviral treatment will provide opportunities for generic drugmakers within the public healthcare sector. As the economy develops, the burden of non-communicable diseases will increase, providing a more attractive epidemiological profile for multinational drugmakers.

Soft Drinks in Africa: Enter the Low-Cost Alternative

Local manufactures in Tanzania, typically subsidiaries of domestic conglomerates, will establish strong niches in the carbonated soft drinks industry as lower-cost alternatives to international brands like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, as the market becomes more tiered.

New Pharmaceutical Sales Data Prompts Forecast Revision

Although pharmaceutical sales grew at a slower pace than we previously forecast in 2014, Kazakhstan's pharmaceutical market will maintain its rapid local currency growth rate over the long term. The government will continue to support increased healthcare expenditure in order to bolster popular support and ensure political stability, and we expect that this will contribute towards growth in pharmaceutical sales, boosting the country's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers.

'Existential' Threats and Political Risks: An Assessment

Despite substantial political risks worldwide, most countries do not face any 'existential' threats in the next few years. The main danger is likely to emanate from new technologies, especially artificially intelligent combat platforms, that will significantly increase the risks of conflict.

El Salvador's Soaring Murder Rate: Massively Challenging for Government

The murder rate in El Salvador, which has reached levels not seen in a generation, has created an urgent crisis in the country, apparently catching the government on its heels. Turning the tide will pose major challenges for the government, weighing on the country's economic prospects and undermining its efforts to overcome its violent past.