Articles List

Production To Pressure OPEC Cut Into H2

Well completion rates in the US onshore ticked up in January, which will result in a stronger reaction from US oil output around May. This will only have a marginal impact on the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut over H117, though will place additional pressure to maintain the production cut over H217.

Coffee: Sideways Trade Over Coming Years

We are maintaining our bearish Arabica coffee price forecasts as we anticipate the global coffee market to be better supplied over the coming months as Asian supply rebounds. Following a period of weakness leading into H217, we expect prices to trade sideways to slightly higher out to 2021 as the global market alternates between small surpluses and deficits.

UAE Relations With China To Deepen

We expect trade and diplomatic ties between the UAE and China to deepen over the coming years. The structural trade imbalance between the two countries will gradually narrow as China imports increasing amounts of energy from the Gulf.

Trump Protectionism Poses Risks For Pharmaceutical FDI

Mexico's position as one of the most attractive pharmaceutical markets for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Latin America region is under threat from the protectionist policies of US President Donald Trump. The dominance of US companies in Mexican pharmaceutical FDI creates risk for market growth, and could negatively impact the investment strategies of multinational drugmakers. The implementation of corporate incentives and protectionist tariffs by the Trump administration will weigh on investment flows over the medium term, although Mexico will still remain one of the leading Latin American pharmaceutical investment opportunities.

Top Economic Team Changes To Strengthen Xi's Position

The bi-monthly session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) that ended on February 24 saw the appointment of President Xi Jinping's various allies to key roles leading reforms, commerce, and justice, in a sign of a further strengthening of Xi's position. We believe that the power consolidation and political recentralisation is likely to bode well for reform efforts.

Blocking Of Vodafone-Sky Merger Acknowledges Importance Of Convergence

The regulator's decision to block the Vodafone-Sky merger comes as a surprise to industry players, marking the first time a regulator has taken converged services into consideration with regards to competition. It plays into one of our key themes for 2017, which is that regulators will start catching up with the times and increasingly acknowledge the importance of over-the-top (OTT) services for operators' growth.

Optimistic Outlook For Luxury Market As Department Stores Invest

The luxury market will be a bright spot in the Canadian retail sector from 2017 onwards, supported by a rising number of high-income households as oil prices recover, growing investment in department stores and a thriving tourism industry.

Trump Administration: Implications For Asia Infrastructure

President Trump's still-nebulous domestic infrastructure investment plans will generate growth opportunities in the US, but trade tensions and a domestic bias could pose challenges for Asian firms otherwise keen to participate. The expected increase in points of contention - particularly economic - between the US and countries in Asia will leave room for China to expand its influence through the AIIB and the Belt & Road infrastructure initiative.

Limited Economic Relief From Reduced Fighting

The reduced level of violence across Syria will slow the pace of economic devastation, but a recovery is off the cards over the next five years, as the effects of large-scale emigration and destruction of infrastructure continue to be felt. Reconstruction will be heavily reliant on financing from external powers, essentially Russia and Iran for the time being.

VR Market Ripe For Innovation And Disruption

VR, following the early success of Sony, could give a much needed boost to the saturated AV market as it will not cannibalise existing products. Gaming has been the key application so far, with Sony benefiting from bundling headsets with the PlayStation 4, but we expect more disruption and innovation in what is a new market, both in terms of AR and VR.

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