Articles List

Competitive Landscape To See Uptick In Indian Drugmaker Presence

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents a comprehensive opportunity for Indian drugmakers to secure future revenue earning opportunities. Generic drugmakers from India will seek to take advantage of the growing demand for essential medicines throughout the MENA region, an area that remains largely untapped. Targeting 'brand awareness', the construction of new manufacturing facilities and the establishment of joint partnerships with local firms are strategies that can be used to boost company footprint in a region where a strong existing preference for branded products exists among both prescribers and consumers.

Sluggish Fiscal Consolidation Ahead

The Finnish government will remain focused on long-term fiscal consolidation following a sharp deterioration of the public finances in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, although sluggish growth and a primary deficit will slow the pace of debt reduction. Nevertheless, the sovereign has retained its safe haven status and we do not view the public debt load as a major threat to macroeconomic stability.

Fiscal Consolidation Will Be Slow In Coming

Fiscal consolidation in South Africa will continue to be stymied by sluggish economic growth and political pressure to overspend in the coming years. While the deficit is likely to narrow in the upcoming budget cycle, it will not hit the government's targets.

Growth Rebound Not A Harbinger Of Longer-Term Fortunes

Growth in Hungary will rebound over the next two years, largely as investment accelerates in line with a pick-up of both EU funds and corporate profits. The government's shift to an expansionary fiscal policy will boost private consumption, which alongside a cyclical upturn in global trade will see industrial production begin to recover. The growth outlook will be limited somewhat by deteriorating competitiveness throughout the economy and unpredictable policymaking.

Wrong Timing For Spectrum Auction

More consolidation is likely in the Indian mobile market as existing operators look to improve their scale to compete against the disruptive impact of Reliance Jio's free data strategy. As such, a spectrum auction now would not be as successful as expected, as operators need to look after their cash while also having enough capacity to meet current demand.

Scenario: US Military Strike On North Korea

Although we do not anticipate US military action against North Korea in the near term, the possibility will grow as Pyongyang comes closer to achieving the ability to deliver a nuclear strike on the continental United States. In this scenario, we consider the implications of the US attacking North Korea.

Debt Issuance To Cover Huge Fiscal Shortfalls

Oman will rely primarily on debt issuance to cover its large fiscal deficits over the coming years. We forecast a budget deficit of 12.2% of GDP in 2017, staying in double digits until 2019. As well as turning to international debt markets to raise liquidity, there will be greater momentum on the privatisation of state assets, and tax rises. We believe most of the spending cuts have already been enacted.

Intel Represents The Future Of Autonomous Driving

Intel's USD15.3bn acquisition of Mobileye will allow Intel to differentiate itself as the 'one-stop-shop' of autonomous driving systems in the future by giving it newfound access to key ADAS and mapping technologies. The company will provide a strong challenge to Google's Waymo, which is also seeking to be an end-to-end supplier of autonomous driving systems.

Macri Presidency Poses Upside To Poor Pharmaceutical Sector Regulatory Environment

Argentina will remain a challenging market for innovative pharmaceutical firms due to a wide array of legislation passed under the Kirchner government (2007-2015). Obtaining a patent is difficult and fraught with delays while intellectual property and regulatory data protection is weak. In addition, drugmakers are faced with a biased reimbursement system. Posing upside risks to the business environment is the improved industry outlook under President Macri.

Referendum To Presage Growing Authoritarianism

Following last week's article where we examined the possible ramifications of the upcoming constitutional referendum for EU-Turkey relations (see 'Referendum Pushes EU Membership Further Out of Reach', March 8), we examine the possible consequences for domestic policy.




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