Articles List

Articles List

Growth Prospects Subdued in Africa Loan Market

All eyes are on the African banking sector after a record year for corporate loan issuance across the continent in 2014. Indeed the continent-wide African loan market saw USD44.7bn in loans issued last year, up by 23% year-on-year (y-o-y) from USD36.4bn in 2013 - data from Dealogic shows. The outlook of BMI's global desk for banking sectors across emerging markets is broadly upbeat, and the same can be said for the continent-wide forecast - albeit mixed depending upon region and country. We note that while it is unlikely that the Sub-Saharan Africa region will enjoy the rate of growth it has experienced over recent years, it will nevertheless offer the most exciting growth stories globally over the next five years.

Emerging Market Oil-Fuelled Disinflation Creates Investment Opportunities

The majority of emerging market central banks will cut interest rates further amid declining inflation and lacklustre growth. Indian and Hungarian local bonds look attractive in this light, as do receiver positions in Malaysia and South Africa. We also hold a bullish view on Chilean consumer stocks; Chilean consumers are benefiting from oil-driven disinflation.

Pharmaceutical Market Appeal To Remain in 2015

Reports of consistent sales growth by multinational drugmakers in Brazil affirm our bullish forecast for the country as an appealing destination for foreign pharmaceutical companies over the long term. The country's increasing medicine demand as well as the government's committed investment to the health sector will ensure a positive growth trajectory for Brazil's pharmaceutical market in 2015.

Latin America's Infrastructure Outlook Looks Strong for 2015

We hold a positive view on the Latin America regional construction industry in 2015 and over the next five years, supported by a strong project pipeline, improving business environment, and low base effects. In light of these dynamics, we forecast growth to accelerate to 2.8% for the region in 2015, from a flat 2014. However, political risks and currency depreciation present some downside risks to our forecasts for the region.

Australia's Santos Impaired by Oil Price Rout

Santos saw its net income for FY14 dragged into the red due to a USD2.4bn impairment charge, though 2015 could prove to be an equally tough year for the company.

Consolidation to Transform Australia's Fragmented IT Sector

Consolidation will transform Australia's fragmented IT services sector over the next three years as independent providers pursue economies of scale needed to respond to growing demand for comprehensive cloud and IT security solutions. Melbourne IT's purchases of Netregistry in 2014 and, now, Uber Global, reflect this view.

Convenience Stores to Lead Retail Growth in UAE

Convenience stores will outperform within the UAE's mass grocery retail (MGR) sector over our forecast period to 2019. In an expanding market with strong medium-term growth prospects in the retail sector, food retailers have traditionally been present with large hypermarkets. However, in the next five years, vast opportunities are expected to arise in convenience-led retail.

Chinese Railway on Track for Even Better Growth

We have revised our forecast for China's railway construction segment and expect the sector to grow 5.2% in 2015 and 3.0% annually between 2016 and 2019. The more positive outlook is underpinned by traffic growth, pricing reforms as well as funding availability for railway construction.