Articles List

Articles List

Honeymoon Over For Podemos

The ruling People's Party (PP) administration will pin its re-election hopes on Spain's recovering economy and uncertainty in Greece.

Slow Recovery As Sanctions Are Eased

Our expectation for sanctions to be relaxed on Iran will ensure the country emerges from recession, but will not presage rapid growth.

Trade Exposure Is Minimal Under Grexit Scenario

Under a Grexit scenario, contagion via the export markets would be limited. Bulgaria and Macedonia would be somewhat exposed but the diversification of their export baskets would cushion the blow of weak demand in Greece. Iraq, Kazakhstan and Libya export a significant amount of oil to Greece but would find ready buyers elsewhere.

Net Neutrality Proves New Regulatory Framework Is Needed

Including VoIP regulation as part of net neutrality rules highlights the remaining importance of basic services in emerging markets, and the trend towards who should share the infrastructure burden. Calling for a level playing field involving global players in national markets by applying the same regulation will fail, but regulation still needs to be updated to include the rising popularity of OTT players.

Scioli's Victory To Open Investment Opportunities

Private investment in Argentina's infrastructure sector will increase if a more centrist government emerges following the presidential election in October 2015. Given the large number of project opportunities on offer in Argentina, reduced uncertainty will see investors return to the country and this poses an upside risk to our growth forecasts for the industry in the short-to-medium term.

Muted Market Reaction Confirms Limited Grexit Contagion

The muted reaction of peripheral eurozone fixed income to the sharply rising probability of a Grexit supports our view that direct contagion risks are minimal. Further euro depreciation remains our base case scenario, but this would be accelerated if the ECB were to ramp up stimulus in response to rising volatility. Eurozone equities are bearing the brunt so far and are most at risk of continued losses, but a further sell off would present buying opportunities. A worst case scenario for equities and eurozone assets in general would be for Syriza to extract major concessions from its creditors following the referendum, as this would increase risk of political contagion.

FLNG Offers Advantage In Tight LNG Market

Shell's decision to proceed with the Browse FLNG project provides an innovate approach to a tightening LNG market in Asia. The more gradual phase-in of three smaller FLNG vessels over one vast facility will better suit the tightening market dynamics while providing lower cost structures.

Disease Awareness Campaigns To Boost Sales Indirectly

Multinational pharmaceutical companies will increasingly use disease awareness programmes to indirectly boost sales. Generally viewed as positive by the public, these campaigns will allow drugmakers to engage current and potential customers in markets where DTC advertising of prescription medications is banned. Doctors are an important audience, especially in emerging markets, where knowledge of chronic diseases can be limited. A key risk to this approach is raising awareness of a disease and inadvertently boosting the profile of competing products.

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