Articles List

Articles List

Downside To Brent From Iranian Crude Exports

We have downgraded our average annual oil price forecasts to account for the return of Iranian crude to markets starting in H2 2015. This is in line with our Middle East Country Risk analysts' view that an agreement will be reached in June between Iran and the P5+1 group over Iran's nuclear programme. The expected slowdown in the US oil production growth and softer dollar gains in the second half of the year will mitigate the downward price pressure from new Iranian volumes on the market.

Centre-Right In Driving Seat Following Departmental Elections

A comprehensive victory by the UMP-UDI alliance in French departmental elections on March 29 is the latest show of antipathy towards the Socialist government, and will boost former President Nicolas Sarkozy's chances of contesting the presidency in 2017. Meanwhile, the National Front has expanded its presence at the local level and solidified its place in the French political landscape.

Cancelled Cloud Plan Costs Public Sector

The cancellation of the GCSC initiative will delay public sector entities' migration to cloud-based services, weighing on 2015/16 budgets. The proposed new 'build-to-share' model will still benefit business and economic development goals, but the time taken to ratify and implement the new platform will put back Ireland's cloud migration progress by another 24 months.

Sanctions Relief: Shipping And Banking First, Oil Last

Following an agreement regarding Iran's nuclear programme, which we expect to occur in June, we anticipate significant easing of sanctions on the country's key oil, banking and shipping sectors over the following 12 months. It is likely that Iran will immediately receive access to financial assets held overseas, and for banking sanctions to be significantly relaxed over the first few months of a deal. Sanctions on the country's oil sector will take longer to phase out.

Oil Sector Stagnates On Prices, Politics

Falling oil prices and continued regulatory uncertainty will see delays to pre-FID greenfield projects in Nigeria, hampering its long-term production potential.

Toughened Alcohol Restrictions Highlight Rising Risk For The Sector

The ban on beer sales in convenience stores and other small-scale outlets will have a moderate impact on alcoholic drinks sales growth in Indonesia. While it will put downside pressure on growth, the on-trade channel - which accounts for the majority of sales - will remain unaffected. In the longer term, it highlights growing regulatory risks for the alcohol sector.

New York: Construction Growth To Outpace National Average

BMI View: The outlook for the construction sector in New York remains robust, bolstered by continual demand in the New York City area for residential and infrastructure construction. We forecast construction value real growth to be sustained at a high level of 3.1% in 2015 and 2016 respectively, far outpacing growth for the US as a whole.

East Africa Sugar: Ethiopia The Stand-Out

Despite frequent pledges of support by East African governments to their respective sugar industries, we do not believe that sugar output in the region will increase as hoped over the next few years.

New Residential Building Forecasts: China Leads The Pack

Our new data forecasts for residential building illustrate that the industry will see growth as a whole over the coming five years. The largest residential market globally is China, with an estimated industry value of USD444bn in 2015, almost double the size of the next largest - the US - at USD268bn.

Lower Oil Prices A Boon For Current Account Position

Weak oil prices, sustained growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector and continued strong remittance inflows will allow the Philippines to generate a robust current account surplus, which we are forecasting will come in at 4.4% of GDP in 2015. A strong current account position will in turn lend support to the Philippine peso despite an environment of broad US dollar strength.

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