Articles List

Articles List

CEE To Become An Oasis For Car Sales

A strong GDP growth outlook based on solid macroeconomic fundamentals will mean CEE car markets outperform other regions across the globe. Consequently, the CEE will act as a regional oasis for automakers facing sales slowdowns in critical markets across Asia and Latin America.

Post-Ebola Recovery Will Take Time

As the Ebola crisis wanes, Liberia can look to start rebuilding its damaged economy. This will prove difficult given the decline in commodity prices, in particular iron ore, on which future growth expectations had been built.

Clinical Trial Sector To Contract

The US clinical trial sector will continue to contract slowly. More late-stage studies are being conducted in emerging markets, where costs are lower and recruitment is increasingly swifter. Regulators in emerging markets often prefer local trials when evaluating medicine registration submissions, but pharmaceutical companies and clinical research organisations (CROs) are still somewhat reluctant to fully embrace research in non-traditional markets, providing buoyancy to the sector in the US in the short-term

KZT Devaluation Darkens Outlook for the Rest of Central Asia

The 25% devaluation of the Kazakh tenge on August 21 will be painful for the economy in the coming quarters. It will send yet another shockwave through the rest of the Central Asian region, which is already under pressure from FX weakness and deteriorating economic conditions in other major trade partners and declining commodity prices. This has prompted us to adopt an even more bearish outlook on Central Asia for the coming quarters.

Yemen: Still Far from Conflict Resolution

The recent gains by the Saudi-led coalition in support of President Hadi do not mean a swift resolution to the conflict. The Houthis will remain in control of much of the north of the country, while Aden and the south are contested by Hadi-aligned forces and Al-Qaeda. Over the long term we highlight the absence of a financially viable Yemeni state unless substantial overseas support is forthcoming.

Colombian Border Closing Will Hardly Temper Criminal Activity

A recent attack against Venezuelan soldiers near the Venezuela-Colombia border reinforces our view that criminal gangs remain well entrenched in the region, posing a persistent threat to security. However, we see Venezuela's decision to close the border as not only a politicised response by President Nicolás Maduro, but also likely to stymie more substantive efforts to improve the security environment in the border region.

Brent Crude: Testing a USD35/bbl Scenario

Caught up in a broader market sell-off, Brent crude has heavily overshot to the downside, trading as low as USD42/bbl. While we believe the medium-term price outlook is positive from these levels with the fundamentals remaining weak, a renewed shock to the global financial markets and aggressive risk-off trading could push Brent towards USD35/bbl support.

Low Oil Prices and Unorthodox Policy Will Weigh on Venezuela's External Accounts

Given the centrality of the oil sector to Venezuelan exports and the collapse of the price of crude, the country's external accounts will be under immense pressure over the coming quarters. Although the government's efforts to limit access to hard currency and the rapid depreciation of the bolívar on the parallel exchange will significantly reduce imports, the current account balance will fall into negative territory for the first time in nearly two decades.

Three Autos Markets to Replace the BRICs

As the autos markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) undergo a period of deceleration, and in some cases contraction, we look at possible replacements as opportunities for growth, based on our forecasts for total vehicle sales.