Articles List

Improvements In Russia Will Boost Richter's FY17 Sales Performance

Gedeon Richter has weathered the storm of economic and foreign exchange weaknesses in Russia and the country's more stable footing has led to a healthy increase in sales in the company's most important pharmaceuticals market. Performance has improved in most of Richter's regional markets; of particular note has been a near-doubling of sales in the US in H117 compared to H116. Richter can anticipate FY17 sales worth over HUF500,000mn (USD1,745mn).

Austerity To Take Its Toll On Growth

Economic growth will slow in Bahrain over the coming quarters as fiscal consolidation measures negatively impact investment and consumption. The infrastructure sector will remain a key driver of real GDP expansion, propped up by large-scale investments from fellow GCC states.

Latin America: Mexico Emerges As Top Construction Market By 2022

Within our 10-year construction industry forecasts for Latin America, Mexico will surpass Brazil to become the largest market in nominal USD terms by 2022. Brazil will suffer from slow construction industry growth and a weaker currency outlook than its peers, while Mexico will benefit from robust economic growth and strong private investment supported by the country's favourable risk profile. Argentina and Colombia will switch places but remain the third and fourth largest markets in the region, supported by strong construction industry growth.

Crude Imports To Grow In H2, Despite Near-Term Headwinds

China's crude oil imports will remain on an uptrend over H2 2017, even as growing macroeconomic headwinds and lower run rates among the independent teapot refiners soften the pace of growth. We expect imports to grow by 10.1% y-o-y in 2017, which implies an average y-o-y growth of 6.0% for H2, compared with 14.3% for H1.

Eroding Demand To Collide With Global LNG Surplus

Softening Egyptian LNG import volumes will remove a small but important source of global LNG demand growth, particularly for short-term and spot contracts, where the country represents a large proportion of the market.

Economic Recovery To Boost Pharmaceuticals Sales Growth

Russia's economic recovery has returned the market to its former position as a key emerging growth driver for multinational pharmaceutical firms. The recovery will remain sluggish, limiting the acceleration of sales growth; however, the growth picture will continue to improve. Innovative drugmakers will remain averse to the high levels of risk within the market and as such generic medicine sales will be the major beneficiary of this growth.

Growth Boom Is Not A Sign Of Things To Come

The surge in Japanese real GDP growth in Q217 was ostensibly driven by domestic demand, but the ongoing recovery in global growth remains a key supportive factor. We have revised up our forecast for Japan's 2017 real GDP growth to 1.8% from 1.3% previously, which would mark the fastest pace of growth since 2013. Strong profitability and high levels of business confidence could sustain above-potential real GDP growth in H217, but rising oil prices and growing domestic economic distortions lead us to maintain our 0.5% growth forecast for 2018.

Tighter Monetary Environment And Regulations To Weigh On Credit Creation

We expect China’s overall credit creation to moderate over the coming months due to a tighter monetary policy environment and increasing oversight of the opaque shadow banking sector amid efforts by policymakers to reduce overall financial risks that have built up over the past few years.

Iran - Opportunities In Inputs For Global Agri Majors

Iran's growing deficits in the agribusiness sector hold opportunities for global agribusiness companies over the coming 5 years. The best opportunities will be in the sale of inputs and equipment, as opposed to FDI into the sector or the export of food stuff. The strong appetite for modernization among Iranian agribusinesses, together with the government goal of boosting domestic production, will facilitate foreign players' market entry into the segment.

Key Policy Rate On Hold Until 2018

The Banco de Moçambique will put on hold any further monetary stimulus until economic conditions have stabilised. Despite cooling inflation and a more benign outlook for the local currency, concerns over economic stability will encourage the bank to leave interest rates unchanged until 2018, when less price volatility will prompt a gradual easing cycle.

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