Articles List

Articles List

Gasoline Demand Set To Strengthen In 2016

Gasoline consumption in China is set to grow at a fast clip in 2016, underpinned by strong growth in passenger car sales. Near-term gasoline production will weaken, as high stocks and weak margins in the regional market prompt refiners to ease run rates and drawdown inventory levels.

Young, Urbanised Population Will Drive Mekong Consumption

The Mekong sub-region has strong growth potential for consumer companies, backed by rising incomes, favourable demographics and the implementation of trade agreements that will lower barriers to investment. International companies are already turning their attention towards the region, with beer, hotels & restaurants and retail among the major winners in this space.

Another Fudge Deal Increases Risk Of Further Bailouts And 'Grexit'

Greece's creditors have delayed offering Greece any substantial concessions on bailout conditions, due to domestic political concerns. Without offering significant debt relief, Greece's creditors have ensured that Greece's economy will remain in the doldrums and that the country will need further bailouts by the time its current deal expires in 2018.

Untapped Resources Attracting Attention Of Majors

Underdeveloped resource basins in Latin America will generate strong interest from IOCs over the next several years amid improving above-ground environments. Mexico, Argentina, and the more frontier markets of Uruguay, Guyana and Suriname will benefit from this dynamic, providing bright spots within a regional industry downturn.

Tata Must Exploit Connections In E-Commerce Push

Tata Cliq will struggle to differentiate itself from low-cost mass-market rivals such as Snapdeal and Flipkart, despite the very positive outlook for e-commerce services in India. Its focus on premium products means it is addressing a very different segment of the market, but the proliferation of small-scale niche providers means it must also look to exploit opportunities elsewhere across the region.

OTC Market To Benefit From Liberalisation

Legislation liberalising the OTC market in the latest austerity package passed by the Greek government will pose significant opportunities for branded non-prescription drugmakers. While the move has faced opposition and will likely lead to a reduction in prices due to competition, volume sales of basic OTC drugs will increase considerably. Although consumer spending is forecast to remain weak in the coming years, the OTC market is set to outpace the wider Greek pharmaceutical market.

SSA's Growth To Find Floor In 2016

Sub-Saharan Africa's mineral production growth will find a floor in 2016 due to a combination of low mineral prices, elevated production costs and declining capital expenditure. From 2017 onwards, output growth will edge modestly higher due to a modest recovery in mineral prices and strong project pipelines in some countries, most notably the DRC.

Regulatory Uncertainty To Undermine 2016 Licensing Round

Few licenses will be awarded in Indonesia's 2016 oil and gas licensing round, as persistent regulatory uncertainties overshadow new incentives. Investing in Indonesia's upstream will remain high-risk and underscores our bearish outlook on Indonesia's long-term crude oil and gas production.

Seven Political Risks To Watch In 2017

Seven major political risks are looming in 2017. The US will inaugurate a new president, France, Germany, Iran, South Korea, and Hong Kong will hold elections, and China will hold a five-yearly Communist Party congress. All seven events will have significant implications for their regions, and many will have a global impact.

Dual Exchange Rate Will Alleviate Liquidity Problems

The likely establishment of a dual exchange rate in Nigeria will be a positive for the economy as it will improve much-needed liquidity. Creating a lower exchange rate will encourage inflows of dollars into the country once more as investors are able to access cheaper naira than at the long-held official rate.