Articles List

Articles List

Palestinian Attacks: Towards A Third Intifada?

The wave of violence raging across Israel and the occupied West Bank since October 2015, aside from its negative implications for the Israeli economy, underscores the growing crisis of legitimacy faced by the Palestinian leadership. Although not our core scenario, the danger of a third intifada is growing and constitutes one of the main risks for the broader region over 2016.

Regional Cooperation Needed For Gas Take Off

New discoveries in Egypt combined with lower international gas prices increase the threat of isolating major assets in the East Mediterranean. Closer cooperation between countries in the East Mediterranean will be key to maximising the value of the considerable offshore gas resources.

EM Growth Crisis Spilling Over Into Oil Markets

Global fuels demand growth will continue to disappoint market expectations, with a slow recovery from the emerging markets' growth crisis depressing consumption. Prices will struggle to recover, with lacklustre demand lagging global supply; diesel is the most exposed from weaker growth, an economic rebalancing in China and the slowdown in global trade.

Food Inflation Pick Up A Boon For Retailers

Inflation returning to positive territory across Western Europe, combined with an uptick in consumer sentiment, will be positive for food retailers over the coming quarters. The UK will be an exception, as the ongoing price war in the mass grocery retail sector continues to weigh on food inflation and puts margins under pressure.

To Be European Renewables Outperformer

BMI View: Improved regulatory clarity, strong government support and ambitious targets for non-hydropower renewables will make France one of our European renewables outperformers over the next decade.

OPEC Role Unchallenged By Shale

OPEC's role within the global oil market is fundamentally unchanged by the advent of US shale. The cartel maintains the power to balance the market against isolated shocks to supply and demand; structural market changes can only be managed by price.

Internet Restrictions Pose Downside Risks To 3G Growth

The government's attempt to deter a recurrence of the recent slate of terrorist attacks by restricting the use of social media services is only a short-term measure which will do little to reduce the risk. The potential increase in instances and length of internet service disruption will undermine operators' attempts to drive growth in Bangladesh's fledgling 3G market and could curb their willingness to invest in mobile data networks.

Economic Crisis Dampening Market Appeal

Russia's healthcare and pharmaceutical markets are in a precarious position due to the country's economic recession - brought on by a tense geopolitical environment and the low price of oil. Healthcare in the country remains desperately in need of additional funding and government policy is reducing the attractiveness of the operating environment to multinational pharmaceutical firms. With significant challenges facing both sectors, we see limited revenue-earning possibilities for medical device firms and pharmaceutical companies over the long term.

Bamako Attack: Initial Implications

The latest terrorist attack in Mali will not only weigh on economic growth in the country, but will have implications beyond its borders. Regional and international cooperation in tackling Islamist groups will be escalated in its wake.