Articles List

The Future Of Metals Demand In Charts

Growth in global metals demand will be weaker over the next five years than that of the previous decade, mainly due to a slowdown in China's construction sector. China's metals consumption growth will slow, particularly for steel. Although economic growth will remain solid in China over the coming years, the economy will become less steel-intensive. Outside of China, the outlook is far more positive and we expect strong demand growth from a host of established emerging markets including India, Mexico, Turkey, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia.

Export Manufacturing To Lead Growth Outperformance

Following Vietnam's spectacular real GDP showing of 7.5% y-o-y in Q317, which brings cumulative growth to 6.4% y-o-y, we have upgraded our forecast to 6.5% for 2017, and 6.7% for 2018. We expect the export manufacturing and services sector to continue outperforming, but note that growth is unlikely to be sustained at the 7+% level over the coming quarters.

Bullish Dutch Outlook Confirms Core IoT Views

We are bullish about the evolution of the Dutch IoT (Internet of Things) market, for two key reasons: the Netherlands' position as a regional and international hub, and strong competition between the four principal operators. This in turn reinforces and confirms some of the core views we have put out on the IoT since 2016.

Magneti Marelli To Sure Up Morocco's Supply Chain

The investment by Magneti Marelli in establishing an automotive component facility in Morocco will strengthen Morocco's ability to meet its goal of producing 1mn vehicles annually in the next 10 years.

Fiscal Stimulus To Continue Ahead Of Elections

With the Hungarian government committing to higher expenditure and tax cuts in 2018, we expect the budget deficit to widen as growth underperforms the government's overly optimistic projections. Nevertheless, Hungary's external debt position will continue to improve as rising domestic ownership of government debt helps to reduce its vulnerability to an emerging market sell-off.

Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes

Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) mining sector will continue to face a more challenging operational environment relative to miners in Asia and the Americas. More notably, we expect the Tanzanian mining sector to be exposed to increasing downside risks to growth in the coming quarters as the incumbent government maintains a hostile attitude to mining. Despite this, improved commodity prices will attract increasing investment into SSA in the coming years, spurred by the region's large untapped resources.

Electricity Supply To Remain Key Policy Priority

Modi's pledge to deliver free electricity connections to all the Indian population by the end of 2018 aligns with our long-held view that the Prime Minister will continue to prioritise power sector reform in India. Bringing the 'electricity to all' target forward by a year is a strategic move by the government, given that the next general election in the country is in 2019.

Kurdistan's Independence Referendum: Initial Thoughts

The overwhelming victory of the 'Yes' vote in Iraqi Kurdistan's independence referendum strengthens the KRG's negotiating position with Baghdad, and will give positive momentum to solving its domestic political crisis. That said, it will also result in an increase in political risk in Iraq, owing to tensions between the KRG and Baghdad, the potential for violent clashes in disputed regions, and other minorities likely to be emboldened by the result, both in Iraq and across the wider MENA region.

Tax Cuts Likely, But Not Substantial Reform

The US Congress will successfully pass new tax legislation by the middle of 2018, which will provide a boost to economic growth. However, political and procedural obstacles mean that comprehensive tax reform is unlikely to come to fruition, leaving only a few key items intact, including corporate and income tax cuts.

Policy Continuity To Improve Near-Term Outlook

The political environment in Serbia will continue to improve in the years ahead, with BMI's short-term political risk score for the country outperforming regional averages. The election of Aleksandar Vučić as President of Serbia in 2017 will underpin political stability and policy continuity, while regional tensions - largely centring on Kosovo's bid to win recognition from Belgrade - will be alleviated, given Serbia's desire to join the EU.

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