Articles List

End Of Driving Ban Points To Authoritarian Socio-Economic Liberalisation

Saudi Arabia's decision to lift the ban on women's driving sends a positive signal to international investors, demonstrating the kingdom's commitment to social and economic reform. That said, the near-term economic implications will be limited, as female employment still faces myriad of obstacles. The decision also points to a consolidation of power in the hands of Mohammed bin Salman at the expense of the religious establishment.

Three EM Central Banks To Keep An Eye On

BMI View: The central banks of Hungary, Indonesia and Turkey all have a relatively loose stance on monetary policy. In each case, there is a risk that inflation could surge, potentially prompting a rapid reversal in policy.

Political Sensitivities To Restrict Fiscal Consolidation

Oman will see limited progress on fiscal consolidation over the coming quarters, as fears of popular discontent hamper efforts to scale back the public sector and reduce subsidies. 'Lower for longer' oil prices and stagnating oil production will weigh on hydrocarbon revenues, keeping fiscal deficits in the double-digits until 2019.

EU-backed Rail Approval To Drive Construction Growth

A recent referendum has cleared the way for a long-stalled railway expansion connecting Slovenia's only port with the country's interior, a project which will underpin a sustained expansion of construction industry value in the years ahead.

Government Initiatives Positive For Continued Islamic Banking Growth

Malaysia's Islamic banking sector continues to be a bright spot in the banking industry and we expect the introduction of programmes to certify professional qualifications in Islamic finance to be positive for the development of human capital in the country's Islamic banking sector. These measures will also help the country to retain its position as a regional leader in the sector.

New Tax Hike Adding To Consumer Squeeze

The recent announcement of a hike in the Motor Vehicle Tax will add further negative pressures to an already difficult picture for the Turkish new vehicle market. The market was already in a process of downward adjustment after hikes to Special Consumption Tax for cars implemented in 2016 and a more recent slowdown in household earnings growth.

Hedge Fund Bull Run Continuing To Find Momentum

In terms of returns, equities might be hard to compete with, but the performance of the global hedge fund industry is continuing on a positive trajectory that will continue to keep investors on side for now. According to data from research house Preqin, hedge funds posted gains of 0.97% during the month of August, extending their bull run for returns to ten consecutive months. August's positive performance followed on from returns of 0.57% and 1.13% most recently in June and July, respectively. So, correct to the data published for the first eight months of 2017, the benchmark Preqin All-Strategies Hedge Fund benchmark has now returned 7.03% in the y-t-d period, and 9.79% over the past 12-months.

Delta Discord Raises Risk To Stability

Growing discord between Niger Delta lobbyist groups, as well as perceived lack of tangible progress in negotiations, raises the risk of renewed violence in the Niger Delta Region. Oil production, which has recovered to multi year highs, will face renewed threats from infrastructure vandalism.

Market Competition And Pricing Issues To Challenge Drugmakers

Colombia's pharmaceutical market is highly competitive which will place pressures on profit margins. The generic medicine segment dominates medicine sales however intense competition and the prominence of a few major multinational drugmakers will continue to drive prices down while. The innovative medicine sector will also face challenges, primarily due to severe pricing restrictions. Despite positive epidemiological trends, the market will underperform due to these issues.

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