Articles List

Economic Reforms To Help Support Long-Term Growth

We maintain our expectations for India to remain one of the fastest growing emerging market economies over the coming years, which will be supported by rising investment amid an improving business environment. While the ease of doing business has improved, there continues to be significant bureaucratic inefficiencies, which are likely to cap the country's growth potential.

TFTA - An African Common Market By 2025?

Trade and investment opportunities in Africa will become increasingly attractive to foreign investors over the medium-to-long term, buoyed by strengthening transport and energy infrastructure against the backdrop of increasing regional economic integration and the harmonisation of trade regulations. Though intra-regional trade is gaining traction and improving the long-term outlook for growth, trade volumes will remain below potential in the short-to-medium term, hamstrung by pertinent logistical, security and political challenges.

Quick View: Imprisonment Of Catalan Ministers To Heighten Civil Unrest

The Catalan crisis deepened on November 02, as eight Catalan government ministers were jailed by the high court pending trial for their role in organising the October 1 independence referendum and subsequent declaration of independence. A European arrest warrant was also issued to extradite Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan president, who remained in Belgium at the time of writing.

How Do We Get To A 'Cliff Edge' Brexit?

While both the UK and EU will endeavour to reach a deal to allow for a smooth exit for the UK from the bloc in 2019, the lack of progress made in negotiations so far and the seemingly poor relations between the two sides makes Brexit with no deal in place - a 'cliff edge Brexit' - an increasingly likely scenario. Here we assess the steps and events that could lead to this scenario occurring.

New Law To Boost Fixed Investment

The implementation of Egypt's investment law will further boost investor confidence, and drive fixed capital formation in the country. An uptick in investment will also create job opportunities, underpinning our view for fixed investment and private consumption to support the acceleration of GDP growth over the coming quarters.

Growing China Role To Bring New Investment

Increased Chinese investment in the development of major infrastructure projects in the Dominican Republic, part of China's growing activity in the Caribbean region, will boost construction industry growth and lead to the greater participation of Chinese construction firms in the market.

Powell Represents Status Quo, But Markets Underestimating Hikes

The announcement of Jerome Powell as the nominee to serve as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to be a game-changer for monetary policy. However, the likelihood of a slightly more hawkish composition of the FOMC in 2018, and clearer signs that core inflation will pick up over the coming quarters, have prompted us to raise our forecasts for the benchmark Fed funds rate.

Brent: Over Run Short Term, Under Done Long Term

We are bearish on Brent in the near term given bullish speculative positioning moving ahead of expected weaker fundamentals in late 2017 and Q118. A narrower Brent-WTI spread will drag on Brent, while stronger OPEC and non-OPEC supply will keep price appreciation in check over 2018. Longer term we are fundamentally bullish, anticipating tighter supply and demand from 2019.

Fiscal And External Outlook Q&A

Laos is increasingly on investors' radars given its strategic location in South East Asia and its affiliation with China's Belt and Road initiative. However, the lack of data and IMF report of huge external indebtedness have prompted concerns about the country's sovereign risk. In this analysis, we would like to address some of the client queries with regards to the country's fiscal and external outlook.

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