Content type

Vietnam’s Resilience Threatened By Property Downturn

Country Risk / Vietnam / Mon 15 Jan, 2024

Key View

  • The economy outperformed our 4.7% growth forecast for 2023, expanding by a swifter 5.0% instead and pointing to stronger growth momentum than we previous thought.
  • However, we are sticking to our 5.5% growth forecast for 2024. 
  • One reason is that a likely global growth slowdown will weigh on external demand, and another is that
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Vietnam: Rate Cuts To Aid Banking Sector Recovery In 2024

Country Risk / Vietnam / Thu 26 Oct, 2023

Key View

  • We have revised our policy rate forecasts for Vietnam and now expect the refinancing rate to be left unchanged at 4.50% for the rest of 2023, before being cut by 50 basis points to 4.00% in 2024.
  • This will be in response to a continued underperformance in the economy, as the drag from the real estate slump on lending activity is
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Vietnam: Current Account Surplus To Remain Robust

Country Risk / Vietnam / Thu 19 Oct, 2023

Key View

  • We have revised upwards our 2023 current account surplus forecast for Vietnam from 0.5% of GDP to 1.5%. In 2024, we expect the surplus to widen further to 2.0% of GDP.
  • The near-term export outlook remains tepid, but we think that a recovery will materialise in H224 alongside a rebound in global demand, especially the US.
  • Meanwhi
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Vietnam Economy Set To Underperform

Country Risk / Vietnam / Thu 05 Oct, 2023

Key View

  • We expect that Vietnam’s economy will remain very weak over the coming quarters and forecast growth of 4.7% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024.
  • The export-oriented industrial sector still faces plenty of headwinds and, while we previously thought that Mainland China's recovery would provide some reprieve, this has hardly been the case.
  • Do
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Vietnam EV Profile: VinFast To Provide A Strong Boost To BEV Sales

Autos / Vietnam / Thu 03 Aug, 2023

Key View: While we expect Vietnam’s passenger electric vehicle (EV) adoption will be bogged down by low incomes and a lack of incentives, the local production of VinFast, Wuling HongGuang, Skoda and Hyundai-branded EVs over our 2023-2032 forecast period will drive strong growth in the market. We currently expect passenger EV sales in Vietnam to

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