Content type

Turkiye GDP: Fiscal Policy Delays Recession

Country Risk / Turkey / Thu 29 Feb, 2024

Key View

  • According to GDP data released on February 29, Turkish economic growth accelerated from 0.3% q-o-q (6.1% y-o-y) in Q3 2024 to 1.0% q-o-q (4.0% y-o-y) in Q4 2023.
  • Despite this performance – which was stronger than we had expected – we still think that Turkiye’s economy will enter recession in Q2 2024, after local elections on March
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Iraq’s Oil Exports Take A Hit As Negotiations With Turkiye Drag On

Oil & Gas / Iraq / Tue 25 Jul, 2023

Key View

  • We have revised down our forecast for Iraq’s crude production for 2023 as the halt in exports via Turkiye approaches its fourth month, with no signs that crude flows will resume anytime soon.
  • The resolution to the crisis continues to rest on negotiations between Ankara and Baghdad, with internal deals reached between the Kurdistan
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Turkish Lira Crisis: What Our Clients Want To Know

Country Risk / Turkey / Fri 09 Jun, 2023

Despite President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan unveiling a new cabinet of ministers, many of whom are technocrats and business leaders the Turkish lira has faced significant stress in recent days. The two most notable appointments were that of seasoned economist Mehmet Şimşek who led Turkiye’s economy through a period of stability in the early 2000s

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European Private Debt Robust, Idiosyncratic Risks Remain

Country Risk / Hungary / Tue 11 Apr, 2023

Key View

  • While Emerging Europe has managed to return its debt to pre-pandemic levels and overall debt levels are also lower than in DM Europe, we believe debt sustainability issues still remain.
  • In a climate of tightening financial conditions, unorthodox monetary policy especially poses elevated risks to private debt in Turkiye and Hungary
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Turkey-Russia Alliance Could Boost Demand For The Lira

Country Risk / Turkey / Tue 09 Aug, 2022

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions expect that economic deeper ties between Turkey and Russia could stabilise the Turkish lira as Turkey will be allowed to purchase some of its gas needs using the domestic currency.
  • We also believe that Turkey will not face secondary sanctions even if it is viewed by EU lawmakers to be helping Russia evade
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