Content type

Polish Economy To Stage Recovery In 2024

Country Risk / Poland / Wed 03 Jan, 2024

Key View

  • We forecast Polish GDP growth to accelerate to 2.4% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025 after having slumped to an estimated 0.6% in 2023.
  • Poland’s recovery will be underpinned by improving private consumption as growth in real incomes allows households to expand spending in 2024 and 2025.
  • Headwinds from a weak external demand outlook will
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Poland Election Preview: How The Government Will Be Formed

Country Risk / Poland / Thu 12 Oct, 2023

Key View

  • Poland will be holding parliamentary elections on October 15 where the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party will lose its parliamentary dominance, and as such we expect government formation to draw out.
  • PiS will receive the first mandate to form government. A vote of confidence in the PiS government could be passed by December 7 or
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Quick View: Polish Central Bank Cuts Again, On Hold Until 2024

Country Risk / Poland / Thu 05 Oct, 2023

The Latest: The National Bank of Poland cut its main reference rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% on October 4, following an initial 75bp cut on September 6 which surprised markets and led to a sell-off for the Polish zloty (down 3.4% vs the EUR in the month). The October decision was in line with our own and Bloomberg consensus

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Dovish Shift In Polish Monetary Policy To Persist

Country Risk / Poland / Thu 07 Sep, 2023

Key View

  • Following the NBP's surprise 75bps rate cut on September 6, we have cut our forecasts for the Polish policy rate to 5.75% for end-2023 (previously 6.75%) and 4.25% by end-2024 (previously 5.00%).
  • The NBP’s greater preference for supporting growth over the medium term, even as inflation stays elevated relative to historical trend
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