Content type

Pakistan’s Current Account Deficit Will Widen In FY2023/24

Country Risk / Pakistan / Tue 02 Jan, 2024

Key View

  • Pakistan’s current account deficit narrowed to just 0.7% of GDP in FY2022/23 (July 2022 to June 2023), but we think that strengthening domestic demand will cause the shortfall to widen to 1.4% in FY2023/24.
  • The recent narrowing of the deficit was due almost entirely to import compression, rather than stronger export earnings. We
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Pakistan: Growth Will Pick Up In FY2023/24

Country Risk / Pakistan / Thu 29 Jun, 2023

Key View

  • We expect that economic growth in Pakistan will accelerate from 0.3% in FY2022/23 to 3.1% in FY2023/24.
  • Economic activity in the fiscal year ending June 2023 was disrupted by deadly floods and a sharp spike in inflation. We expect that agricultural output will rise over the coming fiscal year and that inflation will ease.
  • Risks
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Pakistan: SBP Will Tighten In Late 2023, Loosen In 2024

Country Risk / Pakistan / Tue 27 Jun, 2023

Key View

  • Pakistani policymakers hiked their key policy rate to 22.00% at an emergency meeting on 26 June, and we expect that they will raise the rate to 23.00% by the end of this year.
  • Indeed, given their quick response to proposed tax hikes, risks are weighted towards more hikes later this year.
  • In 2024, however, we expect that easing
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Pakistan: Hiking Cycle Paused, But No Cuts Until 2024

Country Risk / Pakistan / Tue 13 Jun, 2023

Key View

  • Pakistani policymakers held their key rate at 21.00% on 12 June, and our core view is that they will keep the key rate at this level until the end of this calendar year.
  • While many analysts seem to expect that policymakers will cut the repo rate later this year, we do not expect that policymakers will be in a position to loosen
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