Content type

Italian Trade Outlook To Improve As Exports Tick Up

Country Risk / Italy / Tue 27 Feb, 2024

Key View

  • We forecast the Italian current account surplus to rise from an estimated 0.2% of GDP in 2023 to 0.9% in 2024, mainly driven by better goods exports.
  • Import growth on the other hand will face crosswinds in 2024 as commodity prices remain high, while domestic economic activity comes under pressure. 
  • The outlook for Italian
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Quick View: Italy Leaves BRI, Impact Limited

Country Risk / Italy / Thu 07 Dec, 2023

The Latest: In early December, Italy formally informed Mainland China that it would not renew its commitment to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in March 2024. This follows from a campaign promise of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and several meetings between high level Italian and Chinese officials in the last few months.

Forecast

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Italian Growth To Slow Down In 2024 Despite Q323 Upsides

Country Risk / Italy / Tue 31 Oct, 2023

Key View

  • We expect that weak consumer spending and lacklustre investment will weigh on Italian GDP growth in 2024, as tight financial conditions constrain business activity. We forecast Italy’s real GDP growth to decelerate from a projected 0.8% in 2023 to 0.3% in 2024.
  • Growth will be squeezed by lower spending from households, but also a
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Italy’s Re-vitalisation Of Gas Hub Plans Unlikely To Bear Fruit

Oil & Gas / Italy / Fri 18 Aug, 2023

Key View:

  • This year, the Meloni government of Italy has re-invigorated long-running Italian ambitions of becoming a regional gas hub connecting Northern Africa with the European continent.
  • However, we remain pessimistic of such ambitions in part due to our bearish outlook on long-term gas exports from Algeria and Libya.
  • Furthermore, the
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