Content type

Iran Consumer Outlook: Cautious Optimism As Incomes Projected To Outpace Inflation In 2023 And Into 2024

Consumer & Retail / Iran / Fri 21 Jul, 2023

Key View: We hold a cautiously positive outlook for consumer spending in Iran over 2023. We forecast real household spending in Iran to grow by 1.9% y-o-y in 2023, a slight acceleration compared to the estimated 1.7% y-o-y growth in 2022. We expect this will improve further in 2024, where real household spending will grow further to 2.0% y-o-y

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Enduring US Sanctions Will Continue To Hamper Iranian Growth

Country Risk / Iran / Thu 13 Apr, 2023

Key View

  • Whereas we had previously thought that growth in Iran would accelerate from 3.0% in FY2022/23 to 5.8% in FY2023/24, we now think that it will slow to 2.3%.
  • This is because we now think that nuclear talks will remain stalled and that US sanctions against Iran will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
  • The enduring sanctions
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Faster Currency Depreciation Will Drive Up Nominal Credit Growth In Iran

Iran / Tue 11 Apr, 2023

Key View

  • Whereas we had previously expected that Washington and Tehran would return to the Iran nuclear deal in mid-2023, we no longer thing that the two sides will reach an agreement at any point during our forecast period.
  • As such, we expect that current US sanctions will remain in place, which cause the Riyal to weaken by 20.0% against
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