Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we retain our forecast of an end-2023 main policy rate at 13.00% in Hungary. On January 24 2023, the monetary policy committee of the Hungarian National Bank opted to hold the rate at 13.00%.
• The January meeting brought about three changes, which means tighter policy for longer. Namely, the introduction of weekly

Key View: We hold a dim outlook for the Hungarian consumer in 2023, as households face a myriad of issues, ranging from a weaker global economic environment, high and sustained inflation levels, and further spillover effects from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These issues are feeding through to significantly weak consumer confidence data, while

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our view that the Hungarian National Bank will hold its benchmark policy rate at 13.00% throughout 2023. The Hungarian National Bank held the rate at 13.00% in its December 20 rate setting meeting.
• Policy conditions in Hungary will continue to be dictated by the one-day quick deposit rate (18.00%)

Key View: The Hungarian petrochemicals industry overcame the worst of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, but remains weighed down due to the automotive manufacturing chain. Geopolitical risks associated with the Ukraine crisis have caused a massive rise in feedstock prices, eroding margins and threatening long-term oil and gas supplies from

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we retain our view that the Hungarian National Bank will hold its main policy rate at 13.00% in the remainder of 2022 and throughout 2023 following the October 25 rate setting meeting, when policymakers opted to hold the rate at 13.00%.
• However, monetary conditions will be determined by the bank's newly introduced

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions are modestly revising upwards our 2022 real GDP forecast for Hungary from 3.3% to 3.7% following the August 17 flash GDP release showing 1.1% q-o-q (6.5% y-o-y) real growth. We also lowered our 2023 forecast from 2.0% to 1.7% real growth.
• We continue to forecast a recession over H222. This is based on our core

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions are increasingly bearish in our outlook towards the Hungarian market, a view further cemented by the state of energy emergency announced by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Chief of Staff Gergely Gulyás on July 13.
• We believe that risks of energy shortages in Hungary are rising and expect that the new measures will

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now expect that the Hungarian National Bank’s (MNB) policy rate will peak at 8.75% in 2022, following the central bank’s move to hike by 185 basis points (bps) to 7.75% on June 28.
• Risks to this view are significant and are tilted in favour of a more hawkish outcome, especially given the central bank’s new

Key View

• Hungary’s telecommunications industry is set to see a series of additional marginal taxes based on operators’ annual turnover, effective July 2022.
• The announcement comes as the government's influence over the sector is deepening, weighing on an otherwise bullish outlook.
• Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s long-standing campaign to boost

Key View

• While we at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2022 forecast from 2.7% to 3.3% following unexpectedly strong growth in Q1, we still think that the Hungarian economy will struggle this year. We expect a technical recession in late 2022.
• Household spending is set to be on the backfoot owing to a combination of the government tightening