Key View: We have lowered the 2023 growth forecast to account for inflation, global economic slowdown, a commodity price surge and slower economic performance. Our outlook is generally positive for the non-life sector to 2026 and beyond. We expect positive growth, supported by rising demand from retail and enterprise clients along with steady

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we foresee a significant improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit, narrowing from 4.1% of GDP in FY2021/22 to 2.8% of GDP in FY2022/23.
• Import suppressions and lower global commodity prices, together with strong gas exports, a resilient tourism sector, robust receipts from the Suez Canal and rebounding

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that Egypt’s agreement with the IMF will ease pressures in the short term and reduce uncertainties.
• While the floating of the currency will increase inflationary pressures and pressure consumption, it will help address imbalances in the currency market.
• That said, external vulnerabilities will persist

Key View

• Multinational investment in OTC medicine manufacturing in Egypt will contribute to sustained sales growth.
• The drive for universal healthcare in Egypt will reduce dependence on OTC medicines.
• Increased multinational-backed local manufacturing capacity will help to reduce the frequency and severity of drug shortages in the long term

1. What is the latest on Egypt’s IMF deal?

The Egyptian government has been negotiating an IMF programme since March 2022, and according to government officials and the IMF spokesman, the two parties will reach an agreement “very soon”. Even so, the agreement will require the approval of the IMF Executive Board, which will likely take place in

Key View

• Rising medicine prices will slow pharmaceutical sales growth over the next five years.
• Continued economic pressures will accelerate growth in generic drug sales.
• Drug shortages will become more frequent in the short term.

Rising medicine prices will slow pharmaceutical sales growth over the next five years. Egypt has been

Key View

• EIPICO’s new manufacturing plant will increase local production and reduce Egypt’s pharmaceutical import reliance.
• The boost to local manufacturing will fill an unmet need in the market, so does not present significant competition to multinational drugmakers.
• Drugmakers will remain concerned about the market access environment in

Key View

• Egypt's oil and gas production will see slower growth over 2022 amid underperformance over January-May 2022.
• We continue to expect some growth in Egypt over 2022 on the back of some new upstream developments, improved contractual terms for some producers and announcements from some players on increased spending and higher output

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we foresee limited improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit due to a higher import bill and a slower recovery in the tourism sector.
• An IMF programme and other multilateral funding, along with foreign direct investment, and followed later on by debt issuance will allow Egypt to cover its external financing

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions anticipate that the Central Bank of Egypt will increase its overnight deposit and lending rates policy rates by 100bps each over the remainder of 2022, to 12.25% and 13.25% respectively.
• Above-target band inflation will provide impetus for hiking. After averaging 11.1% y-o-y in H122, we forecast inflation will