Country Risk

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Turkish Consumer Story To Sour

Our outlook for the Turkish consumer will deteriorate over the remainder of 2018 and into 2019, as economic overheating risks increasingly come to the fore. The depreciation in the Turkish lira, which is already underway and looks set for further decline, will place significant pressure on consumer purchasing power, as inflation surges and higher interest rates increase borrowing costs. We expect that incumbent President Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) will win the presidential and parliamentary elections respectively on 24 June 2018, after which the government will have little option but to scale back on stimulus measures that have helped drive strong retail sales growth over 2017 and early 2018.

Turkish Consumer Story To Sour

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Turkey's Critical Elections: What's Next?

Analysts

Michael Richards

Head of Europe Country Risk
Europe Country Risk | London

Jeffrey Lamoureux

Senior Country Risk Analyst
Country Risk | New York

Tiziana Papa

Russia Country Risk Analyst
Country Risk | London

Laura Hyde

Country Risk Analyst
Country Risk | London
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