Serious Attempt At Fiscal Consolidation Unlikely To Follow This Year’s US Presidential Election
Country Risk / United States / Fri 22 Mar, 2024
Key View
- We continue to forecast that the US budget deficit will narrow from 6.3% of GDP to 5.8% in FY24 (October-September), with incoming data largely in keeping with this view.
- Relative to a second Trump presidency (average FY25-28: 6.5% of GDP, end of period: 6.2%), we expect that a Biden victory would result in a somewhat narrower