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Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

Key View

• We expect to see further civil unrest in Georgia in the wake of the Foreign Agents Bill passing its third and final reading on May 14 and in the run up to the October 26 election.
• The bill’s adoption will damage Georgia’s EU aspirations severely, but we think Brussels is unlikely to revoke its candidacy status for fear of further pushing

Latest Development: Telecom Argentina’s Q124 earnings call reiterated the company’s commitment to invest into fibre-to-the-home (FTTH), mobile networks and 5G development, with the recent strengthening of the Peso underpinning improvements in bottom-line figures. Should the Peso continue to appreciate, coupled with a deceleration in inflation, this

Latest Development: Microsoft has announced a EUR4bn investment in France to deploy new data centres supportive of AI and cloud computing growth. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is also reportedly in talks to invest EUR1.2bn in the country. Both hyperscalers are set to fall under strict energy efficiency demands, amidst a landscape where building data

Key View

• We expect India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and, by extension, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to secure a third consecutive five-year term in government in the 2024 April-June elections. 
• Expected re-election of  Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be broadly positive for India’s healthcare sector,increasing access to medications and

Latest Development: The proposed legislative revision to the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission Act in Sri Lanka is looking to open the market for macro telecom site construction to independent towercos, breaking away from the current model of joint management and funding between MNOs and the government. If enacted, the proposal would greatly

Key View: We hold a downbeat outlook for Angolan consumer spending over 2024. The impact of the kwanza sell-off in June 2023 has resulted in rising inflationary pressures, while an undiversified economy, elevated debt servicing costs and limited employment in formal sectors will weigh on overall spending over the year.

Consumer Spending Outlook For

Key View: Consumer spending growth is due to remain strong in 2024, given an economic surge primarily driven by increased exports and higher investment, bolstered by more affordable credit and low inflation. A high level of household debt remains a risk to our consumer outlook if interest rates do not come down as forecasted in H2 2024, limiting

Key View

• We forecast that Malawi’s economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024, from an estimated 1.6% in 2023.
• Net exports will present less of a drag on growth in 2024 as we expect a recovery in agricultural output in late 2024, while private consumption will continue to face headwinds.
• In 2025, we expect that real GDP growth will pick up further, to 3.4%

Key View 

• As the Russia-Ukraine war carries on, Kazakhstan’s multi-vector approach to foreign policy has proven to be tricky to manage. 
• While Kazakhstan continues to maintain friendly relations with Russia, its needs to diversify transport and infrastructure links away from Moscow has increased amid tightening economic sanctions. 
• Over the long term