Articles

Key View

• Higher levels of rainfall between October 2023 and May 2024 have bolstered the country’s power supply, which will reduce the risks of further power outages, improve public sentiment and support economic activity over the coming quarters.
• That said, the end of Tanzania’s rainy season will reduce the number of flood-related casualties and ease

Key View: Our 2024 outlook for consumer spending in Botswana is positive. We expect spending to increase over 2024 albeit at a slower rate compared with 2023. Spending growth will be bolstered by an uptick in economic growth and easing inflationary pressures. The most recent high frequency data indicates that consumer spending continued to increase

Key View

• Brazil has been hit by severe floods in recent days, with the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul experiencing its wettest May in over 60 years. 
• For now, we continue to believe that Brazil can hit our 2.1% average annual GDP growth target for 2024. However, risks are increasingly skewed to the downside. 
• The floods could knock upwards of 0

Key View

• We forecast real GDP growth of 2.1% in the Cayman Islands in 2024, down from estimated growth of 3.4% in 2023.
• Economic growth will be driven in the main by recovering private consumption, supported by lower inflation, as well as the robust performance of the tourism sector.
• Base effects, weak investment, and low government spending will

Key View

• We forecast that the BoZ will keep its benchmark policy rate on hold at 13.50% over the remainder of 2024, after a surprise 100 basis point hike at its May meeting, as inflation will remain above the bank’s 6-8% target range for the duration of the year on currency volatility and constrained food supply.
• We do not expect monetary easing to

The lack of adequate addressing and digital mapping have significantly hindered the development of e-commerce in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and have resulted in delivery issues and reduced consumer trust. While this presents significant investment opportunities in mapping infrastructure, data management, and localised mobile apps to improve logistics

Key View

• We have lifted our end-2024 forecast for Bulgarian client loan growth from 8.0% y-o-y to 10.0% as monthly loan growth continued to accelerate in Q124.
• Growth will be underpinned by lending to the household sector, as Bulgarian banks continue to offer loans at a discount to the BNB policy rate, due to ample liquidity.
• Nonetheless, we expect

Key View

• Challenges in Tunisia’s pharmaceutical sector will persist, despite marginal macroeconomic improvements. 
• The stability of Tunisia’s pharmaceutical sector will remain reliant on foreign drugmakers, given the underdeveloped domestic pharmaceutical infrastructures.
• Lack of regulatory and pricing transparency will deter new medicine launches

Key View

• Poland’s medical devices market will benefit from an improving macroenvironment, increased household disposable incomes and government healthcare initiatives.
• Poland will continue to improve its relationship with the EU under Prime Minister Donald Tusk and will begin to import more medical devices from the EU as a result.
• Poland will continue

Latest Development: Telecom Argentina’s Q124 earnings call reiterated the company’s commitment to invest into fibre-to-the-home (FTTH), mobile networks and 5G development, with the recent strengthening of the Peso underpinning improvements in bottom-line figures. Should the Peso continue to appreciate, coupled with a deceleration in inflation, this