Articles

Key View

• The Australian banking sector has strong capital adequacy, and all banks in the market comfortably exceed the minimum regulatory capital requirement by a considerable margin.
• We expect that there will be a slight rise in non-performing loans over the remainder of 2024 as tight monetary conditions and weakening corporate earnings from slowing

Key View

• We maintain our view that Ursula von der Leyen is likely to be the next European Commission President. 
• However, risks to this view have risen since von der Leyen’s open advances towards the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists party.
• Although officials in the French government have recently confirmed that they are considering

Key View

• We forecast 2024 real GDP growth of 2.7% in French Polynesia, down from an estimated 3.4% in 2023, as the tourism-led recovery loses some momentum.
• We expect tourism will remain an important driver of growth, while moderate inflation and easing monetary conditions will support consumption and investment activity.
• Risks to our growth forecast

Key View

• We now forecast real GDP growth of 4.1% in Papua New Guinea in 2024, down from our previous forecast of 4.4%.
• While a recovery in mining exports will drive an acceleration in growth, elevated political instability, renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary conditions remain headwinds to domestic demand.
• Risks are skewed to the

Key View

• We expect the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) to adopt a broadly neutral monetary policy stance over the coming quarters.
• We forecast that inflation will ease from an average 6.4% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, below the NRBT's reference rate of 5.0%, while growth is likely to remain relatively subdued.
• We note risks that a renewed increase

Key View

• We are revising our Chilean GDP growth forecast upwards from 1.8% to 2.7%, which will strongly outpace 2023’s marginal 0.2% expansion.
• Strength in copper exports and a rebound in domestic demand will drive growth over the coming quarters.
• Risks to our forecast are tilted slightly to the downside as the Banco Central de Chile may make fewer

Key View

• The introduction of an hourly minimum wage requirement in the Netherlands in January 2024 will reduce labour cost pressures for employers. The new rate replaces the daily, weekly and monthly minimum wage requirement.
• While the overall wage is still relatively high, the Netherlands will remain an attractive market for employers due to high