The Middle East At A Critical Juncture

The Middle East is at a critical juncture. The anticipated nuclear deal between Iran and the world's major powers could transform the region by bringing Iran closer to the US after 36 years of hostility. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's military...

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Global Market View: Dollar Bull Run Not Over, But Further Upside Limited

Here, we present extracts from our latest outlook on global currencies, with a focus on the US dollar: Aside from tactical near-term downside, we expect further broad US dollar upside in the next year or two, with the euro touching parity at...

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Iran Nuclear Deal Likely To Be Reached In June, But Could Flounder After 2017

We now expect that an agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) on Iran's nuclear programme will be reached in June. Although much of the content of the negotiations has remained secret,...

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BMI Research Publishes UK 2015 Election Primer

BMI Research has just published a comprehensive primer on the forthcoming general election in the UK on May 7, 2015. This is the third in a series of election primers we will publish over the course of 2015 and beyond, with Greece and Nigeria having...

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Global Macroeconomic Themes (Update)

Here, we reiterate some of our key global macroeconomic themes, as outlined in a recent feature article in our online service. US To Outperform Other Developed States US Dollar Bull Market Emerging Market (EM) Reformers To Be Outperformers...

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LNG: Under Strain In A Lower Price Environment

A sharp fall in oil prices has left the global LNG sector heavily exposed. Weaker oil-linked LNG prices, shifting regional trade dynamics and an uncertain demand picture all pose major challenges for the industry, and 2015 looks set to be a...

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Russia-NATO Baltic War Scenarios

BMI Research regularly carries out scenario analysis of 'low probability-high impact' events that fall outside our core forecasts, yet would be a tremendous shock to the international system if they were to occur. Our latest such scenario exercise...

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Trans-Pacific Partnership: Implications And Prospects

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a proposed trade agreement which would significantly impact the economies of 12 countries, which together account for more than a third of global GDP. While there remain some obstacles to its eventual adoption, TPP...

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Cybersecurity: Why It Matters

As the number of connected devices and amount of data they produce continue to rise, so will the risks of cyberattacks. Recent breaches involving Sony, Anthem, Gemalto and Apple's iCloud have put a public light on the issue, and the solution must...

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Brazil: Recession In 2015 To Prolong Real's Weakness

Higher taxes and electricity prices, combined with the knock-on effects of a corruption scandal at state-owned oil company Petrobras, will see Brazilian real GDP contract in 2015. Our new growth forecasts (-0.5% in...

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