Greece Endgame Not Here Yet

We continue to expect Greece and its creditors to 'muddle through', but eventually reach a compromise, and we see only a 30% chance of eurozone exit. Either way, a resolution now looks at least a few weeks away. On June 5, one of the big...

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Ukraine 'Ceasefire' Close To Collapse; EU Sanctions To Be Extended To 2016

The Minsk II ceasefire that supposedly ended the fighting in Eastern Ukraine in February 2015 is close to collapse. The ceasefire has been deteriorating steadily in recent months, and this week saw an upsurge in combat between government forces and...

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Rising Risk Of South And East China Seas Military Confrontations

Rising geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea between China and its neighbours (the latter backed by the United States) over maritime territorial disputes are sharply increasing the risks of a military clash. It is...

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Mexico And Turkey Election Primers Now Available

BMI Research recently published separate primers on legislative elections in Mexico and Turkey, which will be held on June 7. In Mexico, our core view is for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional - PRI...

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Chinese And Philippine Stocks Facing Downside Risks

Chinese stocks are clearly in a world of their own, and warrant a significant amount of caution. We wrote on May 15 that the rally in mainland stocks was looking increasingly unsustainable, and that the fundamentals were not likely to catch up...

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Iran Unlocked: A Wealth Of Potential

BMI Research has just published a special report, Iran Unlocked: A Wealth Of Potential, on the implications of a deal on Iran's nuclear programme, which we expect to be reached in July 2015. This will result in an unwinding of sanctions on Iran, a...

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Macedonia's Crisis Merits Vigilance

The political crisis in Macedonia merits considerable vigilance, for if the country descends into violence, it could destabilise the Balkans and create another bone of contention between Russia and the West. On Sunday, May 17, tens of thousands...

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Special Report: Top 10 Political Succession Risks

BMI Research has just published a special report, Top 10 Political Succession Risks, outlining major political leadership successions which we expect to play out over the coming decade. In each case, an autocratic leader or revered head of state who...

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Latin America: After The Commodity Boom

Given the importance of oil, metals, and agricultural goods for many Latin American trade accounts, fluctuations in commodity prices have a major impact on the region's currencies and growth prospects. BMI Research recently organised an event which...

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What's Really Going On In North Korea? Four Possible Explanations

North Korea is one of the biggest geopolitical risks in Asia, so any possible changes to the status quo merit considerable attention. This is why the reported execution of defence minister Hyon Yong Chol is significant. If the reports are true, then...

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