North-South Korea Tensions Set To Increase, As Key Anniversaries Approach

Tensions are once again rising between North and South Korea, as the two countries on August 20 exchanged fire at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates them. We expect tensions to increase, as the North prepares to mark several key...

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Chinese Government Must Choose Between Supporting Yuan Or Stocks

Beijing will increasingly have to choose between propping up the equity market and defending the currency from further downside pressure. The government will not be able to do both. Both the local stock market and the currency are significantly...

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70 Years After WWII, 'Great Power' Conflict Risks Rising

BMI View: The risk of a 'great power' conflict over the coming decade or two is rising, as the world becomes increasingly multi-polar, and the growing use of drones lowers the threshold for military action. Even if there is no intent for conflict,...

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Page-Turner In Burma

BMI View: Shwe Mann's shock removal from his post as chairman of Myanmar's ruling USDP should be viewed as an internal party coup, and is the clearest sign yet that the Tatmadaw retains significant leverage over the nominally civilian political...

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Further Analysis On Chinese Yuan Devaluation

Over the past few days, BMI Research has published several articles exploring the implications of the Chinese yuan's devaluation on a variety of regions and sectors worldwide. These are listed below and are available to subscribers. US And...

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China's Yuan Devaluation: Key Implications

The People's Bank of China (PBoC)'s decision to set the CNY midpoint 1.9% weaker against the US dollar (from CNY6.210/USD to CNY6.327/USD) marks the largest one-day fall for the yuan since 1993, and increases the downside risks to the...

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US Dollar Heading For Parity With Euro

We believe another leg down in the USD/EUR exchange rate is imminent, and continue to see parity as a realistic target in the coming months on the back of US growth outperformance, and widening nominal and real interest rate differentials. With the...

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BMI's Latest Global Commodities Outlook

BMI Research publishes a weekly Commodities Strategy article in our online service. The latest of these is published below. Oil: A retest of Brent Crude's 2015 low of around USD45.0/bbl looks inevitable, given current ample market...

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China's Stock Market Crash: Assessing the Global Implications

China's equity crash is far from over, and is likely to expose the underlying weakness of the economy. More monetary easing is likely, but will be akin to pushing on a string, while the property market is increasingly at risk. Reforms are set to...

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India's Geopolitical Outreach: Implications

India will seek to expand its geopolitical reach over the coming decade and beyond, to compete more effectively with a rising China. In a major feature published in our online service earlier this week, we explain in detail how New Delhi will do...

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