BMI Publishes Q4 2015–2016 Global Political Outlook

The world's political calendar will be very busy over the next 15 months, with national elections (presidential or parliamentary, or both) scheduled to be held in Argentina, Australia, Belarus, Canada, Cote d'Ivoire, Iran, Japan, Peru, the...

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Junker Infra Investment Plan: Private Money, Public Knowledge

With a goal of investing EUR315bn by the end of 2017 the European Fund for Strategic Investment, otherwise known as the Junker Plan, is an ambitious attempt to unlock private capital and boost Europe’s real economy. The fund aims to attract private...

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8 Factors that Could Cloud the UK 2020 Election

The election of the far-leftist MP Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the UK's main opposition Labour party on September 12 has raised speculation that the governing Conservative Party is assured of victory in the general election scheduled for May 2020....

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Q4 2015 Set For Intense Election Calendar

The fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015 looks set to be a very busy period for elections worldwide, with October being especially intense. Elections often mean rising political risks, as governments change hands, or candidates resort to populist stances on...

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Russia's Collapse Would Not Be to the West's Advantage

Russia's top political leaders seem to fear that the West (i.e. the US, and to a lesser degree the EU) favours crippling – or even breaking up – the Russian Federation, in a similar manner to the Soviet Union. According to this line of thinking,...

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Global Markets Crash Confirms Our Long-Held Views

We have long expected the US equity market to crash, owing to a combination of extreme valuations and deteriorating market internals, so regular readers will be aware that recent events are not a surprise (see 'Profit Squeeze Points To Major Market...

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Saudi Arabia Riyal Devaluation Highly Unlikely

BMI View: A devaluation of the Saudi riyal is highly unlikely. Such a move would carry few economic benefits and come at the expense of social stability. More importantly, the Saudi authorities easily retain the means to defend the peg, and...

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China Crisis: Global Implications

As the Chinese economy stutters, fears are mounting over impacts on global trade and economic growth. This week's podcast features BMI Global Economists Tim Cooper and Lisa Lewin, discussing the outlook on China and the far-reaching implications of...

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Greece: Syriza To Remain Biggest Party, But New Allies Will Be Needed

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras stepped down on August 20, and called early elections for September 20. As we had long expected, the hard-line ‘Left Faction’, which has 25 MPs, pulled out of the Syriza coalition and formed its own party ('Popular...

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EM Currency Pegs Falling

Emerging Market (EM) currencies remain under pressure. We warned two weeks ago that the Chinese yuan devaluation could spark similar moves elsewhere, and the past week saw Vietnam and Kazakhstan throw in the towel. Following a 1.0% drop on August 19...

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