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Key View: Despite land expropriation becoming official party policy in South Africa, we believe President Cyril Ramaphosa will mitigate threats to agricultural production. Un-used or underutilised land will likely be the subject to land expropriation rather than productive farmland, agricultural output therefore remaining largely unaffected. The

Global political risks will remain at extremely high levels in 2018, owing to the North Korean missile crisis, ongoing uncertainty over Brexit, and the seemingly erratic policy backdrop under the US Trump administration. Other significant risks include forthcoming general elections in Italy, and Latin America, all of which present major

China's 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR) initiative, aiming at expanding its economic and geopolitical influence in Eurasia, will lead to the acceleration of Chinese mining investment in Central Asia. Kazakhstan, with its rich deposits of copper, gold and uranium will remain a priority in terms of investment.

The One Belt (also known as the New Silk

Key View:

• Despite the signing of a peace deal between South Sudan's President Salva Kiir Mayardit and rebel leader Riek Machar, we believe that South Sudan's political environment will likely remain highly unstable.
• The lack of approval for the peace deal from the rest of Machar's party will likely see tensions remain sustained in the short

The Latest: On Friday June 23, Saudi Arabia and its allies in the ongoing diplomatic spat with Qatar - namely the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain - delivered a list of 13 demands to the country. This came nearly three weeks after Saudi Arabia and its allies cut off ties with Qatar and closed their borders, ports and airspace to the country. Many of the

Key View: Questions are being asked as to the extent to which Saudi Arabia will increase its production, to offset shortfalls elsewhere in the market. We believe that while a large volume of barrels will be returned over the coming months - likely upwards of 1mn b/d - the kingdom will be reluctant to exhaust its substantial spare capacity.

• The

Key View:

• Opportunities for patented drugmakers will be limited by healthcare funding issues.
• Most major multinational drugmakers are present in the market but activity is limited to clinical trials and marketing.
• Investment by innovative pharmaceutical firms will remain concentrated in Western Europe.

Forecasts:

We forecast patented

We expect low volatility net asset value (LVNAV) funds to be the largest European money fund segment once European money fund reforms are fully effective. Irrespective of the outcome of the recent regulatory discussion on LVNAVs denominated in euros, volumes in sterling and US dollar transitioning to this fund type will still make it the largest

Key View: Proposals to reduce the high pharmaceutical trade imbalance between India and China by boosting Indian drugmaker investment in the country will bode well for the long-term business prospects of Indian drugmakers and multinational drugmakers invested in India. Moreover, recent changes to Chinese regulations allowing quicker product

China's latest tightening of regulations on money market funds (MMF) is unlikely to slow sector growth significantly, but should lower liquidity risks marginally, says Fitch Ratings. One effect of the changes will be to discourage retail clients from viewing and using their MMF investments like bank deposits, but there will be only a limited impact