Articles

Key View

• If the Israel-Hamas war were to expand into a regional conflict and have a meaningful impact on global oil prices, it would place pressure on inflation rates in Latin America and likely delay or reverse rate cutting cycles.
• That said, compared to other regions of the world, we believe that Latin America is relatively insulated

Key View

• We have become increasingly bullish on our 2024 fuel demand forecast, now expecting total demand growth to settle at 4.1% y-o-y in 2024.
• Agribusiness and commercial sectors will support robust fuel demand growth in 2024, driven primarily by growing middle distillate consumption. However, the increase in fuel taxes and slowing

Key View: 

• Candidates supporting opposition leader Imran Khan performed better than we – and most analysts – had expected, which will complicate the formation of a new government in Pakistan.  
• Even so, another coalition led by the military-backed PML-N – which unseated Khan in 2022 – remains the most likely outcome. The coalition

Latest Development: IBM and NTT have embarked on a joint project aimed at measuring and reducing data centre power consumption by monitoring the temperature of data centre servers. The companies are collaborating to release a tool that has been developed in Japan and are planning to introduce it to data centre operators worldwide.

Forecast

Key View

• We have revised up our 2024 growth forecast for El Salvador from 1.6% to 2.1% largely on the back of the improved outlook for the US economy, especially in H124.
• Stronger US growth will support Salvadorian growth via higher remittance inflows and greater external demand this year, boding well for both private consumption and

Key View 

• We expect that lower Suez Canal receipts will cause Egypt’s current account deficit to widen from 1.4% of GDP (USD4.7bn) in FY2022/23 (July 2022-June 2023) to 2.9% of GDP (USD8.5bn) in FY2023/24. 
• Things will improve in late FY2023/24 with the conclusion of the Israel-Hamas war and the resolution of the Red Sea crisis, a new and

Key View

• After slowing from 4.1% in 2022 to an estimated 2.2% in 2023, we forecast that Romanian real GDP growth will accelerate modestly to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. 
• An easing of headwinds facing private consumption will be a key driver behind improving growth in the coming quarters. 
• After a public investment-led surge in 2023

Key View

• On February 06, 2024, the European Commission presented its recommended emission reduction target for 2040, which outlined a goal for net greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. It has since been reported that an earlier reference to a potential reduction in non-carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions

Key View

• Singapore’s commitment to addressing the healthcare needs of its ageing population will support medical devices market growth over the medium term, despite economic pressure. 
• The Ministry of Health's implementation of a more value-based subsidy framework will expand access and affordability of certain devices, however may create

Key View

• While our regional growth forecast for 2024 has risen slightly in recent months, from 1.5% to 1.6%, this has been driven almost entirely by Brazil and Mexico, offsetting downward revisions elsewhere.
• This tracks with the high frequency data from across the region in recent months, where in several areas – such as employment