Articles

Monthly Market Strategy: The Case For Cash

Banking & Financial Services / Global / Fri 23 Jun, 2017

With interest rates at or close to record lows in most DM countries,it may seem like cash is the worst possible investment, but we believe that there is a strong case to be made from a risk-reward perspective. The ultra-loose monetary conditions that have been in placeforover most of the past decade have pushed risk assets to the point where the

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MENA Edging From Oil To Gas

Oil & Gas / Middle East / Fri 23 Jun, 2017

We forecast substantial production gains the MENA region, with broadly level growth in both oil and gas. On the consumption side, increasing domestic supply and state-led support for oil-to-gas switching in the power sector will see gas consumption growth outstrip growth in demand for fuels.

To highlight the key themes that inform our Middle East

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Mining Charter A Further Headwind To Investor Sentiment

Mining / South Africa / Thu 22 Jun, 2017

South Africa's recently published revisions to its mining charter will undermine already weak investment, offering further headwinds to the economic growth outlook. Aside from the direct headwinds to the mining sector due to a higher cost of compliance, the new charter further signals that the ruling African National Congress is moving ahead with

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Oil Recovery Will Unlock Moderate Growth

Oil & Gas / Nigeria / Thu 22 Jun, 2017

Despite weak Q1 data leading us to revise down our growth forecasts in 2017, we maintain a broadly constructive outlook on prospects for Nigeria's economic recovery over the coming quarters. In addition to increasing oil output, an improvement in FX liquidity will boost investor sentiment.

Nigeria's economy will post a modest recovery over our

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Soybean: Forecasts Revised Lower But Uptrend Maintained

Commodities / Global / Thu 22 Jun, 2017

We have revised our soybean price forecasts downward, but still expect prices to average slightly higher than spot levels in the coming years. The global soybean market will register small deficits as global demand growth, led by China, remains steady. By contrast, supply growth will slow due to reduced growth in plantings and yields.

Short-Term

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Challenges Persist In Walmart's International Operations

Consumer & Retail / Global / Wed 21 Jun, 2017

Walmart faces ongoing challenges in its international operations. We review the company's shifting strategy in China, the ongoing risks in Latin America and the potential for Walmart to expand in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Walmart's international operations accounted for 24.1% of sales and reached USD116.1bn in FY2016. Walmart has seen this percentage

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Privatisation Drive: Overpromised, Underdelivered

Country Risk / Middle East / Tue 20 Jun, 2017

Despite significant efforts over the past three years to offload ailing public sector enterprises, the main loss-making PSEs continue to pose a major fiscal burden to the Pakistani economy. While continued support from the ADB may help to gradually improve corporate governance, the prospect for big bang reforms seems limited given that the ideal

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U.S. REITs Keeping Development Exposure in Check

Real Estate / United States / Sun 18 Jun, 2017

Development exposure prudence remains the norm for U.S. equity REITs, with issuers in most property types keeping exposures manageable for the foreseeable future according to Fitch Ratings in a new report.

REITs are still showing discipline throughout this post-crisis cycle. In fact, outside of multifamily and industrial, modest growth in tenant

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New MVNOs To Drive Market Transformation

Telecommunications / Senegal / Sat 17 Jun, 2017

New MVNO players will contribute to transforming the Senegalese market from price to service-oriented competition. These new entrants will allow network operators to invest further in developing advanced services to grow revenues, when a new network operator would just exacerbate price competition.

The ARTP, the Senegalese telecoms regulator, has

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