The US Dollar's Medium-Term Outlook

The medium-term US dollar outlook presents a mixed picture. While we continue to believe that the US dollar bottomed in August 2011 - the last time the US federal government faced an imminent self-inflicted default - the diverging performance of individual currencies versus the dollar is becoming increasingly obvious. We think that the dollar can go lower against major developed market currencies in the coming few months, but sustain its recent gains versus several emerging market (EM) currencies. However, within EM, there will be a divergence in performance between commodity-related FX (particularly in Latin America) and undervalued Asian currencies.

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