Special Report: What Went Wrong For Opinion Pollsters In 2015?
BMI Research has just published a special report looking at why pre-election opinion polls in seven vastly different countries failed to predict the correct election outcomes in 2015.
We have selected examples from Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and North America. For each election, we outline what pre-election polls were suggesting the result might be, what actually happened, and why the polls anticipated different outcomes from what transpired.
General elections are typically the biggest event in the political calendar of any country. Opinion polls are by and large the only tools that analysts, investors, and commentators have in predicting election outcomes. As such, when voter surveys fail to foresee the correct outcomes, this requires a thorough analysis into their shortcomings.
It is important for observers to understand how opinion polls are carried out, and what their limitations may be, so that they can be better prepared for future election surprises and upsets. With this in mind, our report analyses seven elections in 2015:
• Sri Lanka (January 8)
• Israel (March 17)
• Nigeria (March 28)
• United Kingdom (May 7)
• Greece (September 20)
• Canada (October 19)
• Turkey (November 1)