North Korea: What If There’s War? 11 Critical Questions

Although my colleagues and I do not anticipate a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, we have warned for some time about the possibility of a limited conflict. But would a limited conflict actually remain limited? From a risk analysis perspective, we have to consider the possibility that what begins as a skirmish or clash at sea or in the border area could spin out of control, and escalate into a major war. Against this backdrop, we have published a special feature on Business Monitor Online that answers the following critical questions:

  • What would a limited war look like?
  • How far would the North be willing to go in the event of war?
  • Would the US come to South Korea’s defence?
  • Would the US and South Korea counter-invade the North?
  • How strong is morale in the North Korean People’s Army (KPA)?
  • Would nuclear weapons be used in conflict?
  • How would China react to a new Korean conflict?
  • How would Russia respond?
  • How would Japan respond?
  • What would be the economic consequences of a Korean war?
  • How would a second Korean war end?

Our 2,900-word article is a must-read for anyone even remotely affected by rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and interested in the implications of a new conflict for the wider region.