Iran Beyond The Nuclear Deal

The nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 'great powers' is highly significant, and looks set to be the first step in a long-term rapprochement between Tehran and the West. We identified the geopolitical implications and economic opportunities of a nuclear deal in a special report, Iran Unlocked: A Wealth Of Potential, published in May.

Of course, there are still reasons for caution. The deal could later unravel, especially if future political leaders in the US and Iran decide to abandon it, either formally or by gradual non-compliance.

The more interesting question is how Iran might change as a result of the nuclear agreement. From our point of view, the big questions include:

  • How will Iran's economy improve as a result of the nuclear deal?
  • Will the anticipated improvement in Iran's economy bolster or undermine the clerical regime over the long term?
  • If the clerical regime weakens, what system of government might become dominant?
  • How long will it be, before Iran and the US/West achieve a genuine warming of relations?
  • How would the recalibration of relations between Iran and the West change the geopolitics of the Middle East?

These are all issues that we have been discussing in our subscription service for some years.

Overall, we believe that the chances of a genuine change in Iran-US relations are the highest since the late 1990s. If Tehran and Washington fail to take advantage of this opportunity, it could be at least another decade before another chance emerges, and things might well get worse before they get better.