Expo Win To Provide Long-Term Boost For Dubai

We have raised our forecasts for Dubai's economy on the back of the emirate winning the right to host the World Expo 2020. We now forecast Dubai's real GDP growth to average 4.3% over the period to 2017, from our previous projection of 4.1%. The government in Dubai says that Expo 2020 will bring in around US$23bn over the coming decade and create around 277,000 jobs. These figures are difficult to verify, but would represent a significant boost to the already booming economy, as GDP for the emirate is currently around US$130bn and total employment stands at 1.3mn people. We expect Dubai to increasingly become the key driver of the UAE's economic growth in the coming quarters, as the emirate's non-oil sector expands substantially, especially given the economic boost derived from preparing and hosting the Expo. By contrast, we expect Abu Dhabi will see GDP growth constrained by moderate increases in oil output and lower oil prices. Further analysis of the UAE economy, and other Middle Eastern countries, is available to our subscribers at Business Monitor Online.