BMI Publishes Latest Global Political Outlook, Q2 2013-2014: Biggest Risks Contained, For Now

BMI has just published its latest quarterly Global Political Outlook, covering the period Q2 2013 to early 2014.

As we enter the second quarter of 2013, the immediate political risks facing the world are renewed concerns about the eurozone in light of Italy’s political deadlock and Cyprus’s financial crisis, a possible clash on the Korean Peninsula, and, to a far lesser degree, the presidential election in Venezuela.

As the year progresses, we expect attention to turn to several key elections, with September being an especially busy month due to voting in Australia, Germany, and Austria in quick succession.

Other countries holding important elections include Iran (presidential), Japan (Upper House), Argentina (legislative), and Azerbaijan and Georgia (presidential).

As regards international conflict risks, we remain vigilant towards the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran in the second half of 2013 if Iranians elect a hardliner as president in June and if Tehran shows no flexibility over restraining its nuclear programme. We are also keeping a close eye on the Sino-Japanese territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, the situation in Mali, and of course the civil war in Syria, which could intensify as the rebels close in on Damascus.

Our Global Political Outlook covers hotspots such as:

The eurozone, Korean Peninsula, Iran, Syria, and Asia’s maritime disputes

It also includes commentaries on the political outlook for the following countries:

Americas: The United States, Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil

Europe: Italy, Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Turkey, Russia, and Georgia

Middle East and North Africa: Egypt, Iran, Tunisia, and Yemen

Africa: Mali, Nigeria, DR Congo, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa

Asia: China, Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Pakistan, Australia, and India

We also include a list of potential ‘wild card’ events.

Finally, our global outlook also features a table listing most major countries’ elections between now and the end of 2014, including their dates, main political parties and contenders, BMI‘s expected outcome, and BMI‘s short-term political risk ratings. Our full Global Political Outlook, which is 8,700 words, is available to subscribers at Business Monitor Online.