BMI Publishes Global Political Outlook, Q2 2014–2015

BMI has just published its latest quarterly Global Political Outlook for the period covering the second quarter of 2014 to 2015.

The article is a comprehensive overview of all our key political views listed by country, and includes a table of all major elections between now and the end of 2015. The election calendar lists all the major incumbent and opposition candidates and parties, as well as BMI's predicted outcome, where we have a view.

"As we enter the second quarter of 2014, the world is seeing a notable increase in political risk in several quarters. The crisis in Ukraine appears to be moving away from a Russian invasion of the eastern part of the country, but the relations between Russia and the West will remain tense over the coming months, especially in the run-up to Ukraine's presidential election in late May. The main significance of the Crimea crisis is that it demonstrates that the risk of a 20th century-style 'great power' conflict in Europe has not gone away, even 25 years after the end of the Cold War…"

"Meanwhile, several major emerging markets – including India, Indonesia, South Africa, Colombia, Egypt, and Brazil – will also hold general elections over the course of the year, which will define their economic agendas for the next few years…"

"Elsewhere, several countries – most notably Venezuela and Thailand – are continuing to see major anti-government protests. Indeed, we reiterate that we are living in an age in which major protests can emerge with lightning speed, thanks to the use of social media. The latest country to see mass protests is Taiwan, where more than 100,000 people are demonstrating against a trade pact with China…"

"On the international stage, besides Ukraine, the main events to watch are the ongoing rapprochement between the US and Iran, and Asia's maritime disputes, principally between China and Japan, but also between China and the Philippines and Vietnam. Meanwhile, the Korean Peninsula could see more tensions…"

We also discuss several key political themes, as listed below (1 and 2 are ongoing; 3 is new):

  • Theme 1: Emerging Market (EM) Policy Risks Still In Focus
  • Theme 2: The United States' Diminished Ability To Shape The World
  • Theme 3: Possible Return Of Food Price Inflation

Our Global Political Outlook is available to subscribers at Business Monitor Online.