BMI On Global Commodity Prices Outlook

Below, we list our latest views on selected global commodities:

  • We expect a consolidation in oil and industrial metal prices over the coming weeks. Further gains from recent lows are likely for commodities such as Brent crude, copper, and aluminium, as underlying macroeconomic fundamentals will remain relatively supportive for now.
  • We retain our bearish medium-term outlook on industrial commodities and have revised our 2013 and 2014 average copper price forecasts to US$7,300/tonne (from US$7,700/tonne) and US$7,000/tonne (from US$7,300/tonne), respectively.
  • Gold prices will be volatile in the coming months, and we do not rule out a temporary rally towards US$1,500/oz. Nonetheless, the recent collapse confirms our view that gold has peaked.
  • Grain prices will trend lower over the coming quarters, although soybean prices will outperform.
  • We expect a temporary bounce in several soft commodity prices in 2013, before the long-term downtrend resumes.

Our price forecasts for individual commodities, such as oil, natural gas, coal, various industrial and precious metals, and agricultural products, are available to subscribers at Business Monitor Online.