BMI Global Economic And Market Strategy Update

Global Macro Update: This month, we look at recent trends in global production, credit, consumption, and trade. Our short-term indicators of economic activity suggest that growth has been flat-to-moderate in the first few months of 2013, with the eurozone representing the most significant source of weakness.

Global Asset Class Strategy: Several multi-year charts continue to point to a major shift underway in the global economy, in which we expect the US dollar to come back (it probably bottomed in August 2011, in our view), and developed market equities to continue outperforming those of emerging markets. These are the major trends that drive our multi-year asset class strategy.

Macro-Industry Update: Our Global Macro-Industry Strategy views are unchanged this week. One potential new view that we explore is communications tower companies, given BMI‘s forecast for a surge in global demand for data, the spread of data demand into rural areas, the ongoing emergence of new technologies, and fact that the continued release of wireless spectrum will necessitate an increase in infrastructure capacity.

Global Assumptions: Our global real GDP growth estimates for 2013 have been revised down to 2.8% from 2.9% since our last Global Assumptions update, with our 2014 forecast also falling by one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.3%, from 3.4%. The primary reason for our reduced global forecast is a reduction in our expectations for eurozone growth in both 2013 and 2014, which in turn is due primarily to a downgrade of France’s outlook.

Our full coverage of the global economy, including our Global Assumptions and our investment and asset class strategies, is available to subscribers at Business Monitor Online.