Articles List

Sugar: Policy Changes To Drive Sugar Market Disruption

We forecast sugar prices to continue falling as we progress into the 2017/2018 season, reaching lows last seen in 2015, in the range of USc10-12/lb, and averaging USc13.50/lb over 2018. However, prices will recover as we move into H218 and H119, partly in response to policy changes in Brazil and Thailand, but also due to the narrowing surplus that will result from planting/crushing decisions in the 2018/2019 season.

No End In Sight To Insurgency Following Mogadishu Attack

Somalia will remain one of the most unstable countries in the world with regards to its political and security outlook over the coming years, a view reinforced by the major terrorist attack that took place on October 14. While President Mohamed remains widely popular and committed to building up the country's institutions, without a significant increase in external assistance there is little prospect of defeating the al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency that is believed to have carried out the attack.

Renewables Forecast Upgrade As Investor Interest Rises

Increasing investor interest in the Philippine's renewables sector, supportive government policy for the sector and renewed efforts to channel investment into grid infrastructure underpin our constructive growth forecasts for non-hydropower renewables capacity in the Philippines.

Cross-Border Collaborations In Europe Pose Upside and Downside Risks For Drugmakers

The increasing trend for European countries to collaborate, with respect to medicine pricing and reimbursement, poses risks to multinational pharmaceutical firms. While drugmakers are likely to benefit from greater market access through more streamlined pricing and reimbursement mechanisms, these agreements also pose significant risks to repressed medicine prices. We note that these agreements will be concentrated in smaller and less affluent markets across Europe; the major European powerhouses prefer to maintain autonomy in pricing negotiations.

Weah And Boakai On Course For Run-Off In Bitter, But Peaceful Vote

Liberian Vice President Joseph Boakai and senator and former footballer George Weah are on course to enter the run-off election for the country's presidency following the first round vote on October 10. Whether Boakai or Weah wins, we do not expect any significant risks to policy continuity, and despite the distrustful rhetoric during the campaign and post-election violence is likely to prove localised.

Growth To Remain Export-Driven

Advanced estimates indicated that Singapore's real GDP expanded by 4.6% y-o-y in Q317 versus the 2.9% y-o-y recorded in Q217. We have upgraded our real GDP forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 to 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively from 2.2% and 2.5% previously, and expect the manufacturing sector to remain the main driver of growth, while still-strong tourism figures will lend additional support. However, we expect the MAS to maintain its neutral monetary policy stance over the coming months as it seeks to support growth as the economic recovery is not broad-based.

Research Highlights: Emerging Market Hot Spots And Commodities Of The Future

In September, we ranked the most attractive emerging market investment opportunities utilising two of BMI's strengths: emerging market expertise and industry analysis (see below). More generally, last month's research highlights included analysis on the annual BRICS summit, China's 19th Party Congress and the North Korea crisis.

Domestic Gas Consumption Set To Decline

Domestic gas consumption in Turkmenistan will decline following the reduction of welfare subsidies. The country's natural gas exports will be constrained by the limited export opportunities.

Lam's Policy Address Supports Businesses, But No Sign Of Political Reforms

The proposals introduced during Chief Executive Carrie Lam's October 11 policy address will likely improve Hong Kong's already favourable investment environment but the issue of poor housing affordability is likely to persist over the near future. Political reforms are not a focus, and therefore, we maintain our view that demands for greater democracy in the Special Administrative Region will continue to face headwinds.

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