Content type

Tourism To Support Albanian Trade Balance

Country Risk / Albania / Fri 30 Jun, 2023

Key View

  • We expect tourism to support the Albanian export economy throughout 2023 despite faltering external demand for Albanian-produced goods. We forecast the current account to improve from a deficit of 6.1% to a deficit of 3.5%.
  • Our view of an improving current account balance is reinforced by our expectation of a reduction of the
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Bank Of Albania To Continue Hiking Despite Easing Inflation

Country Risk / Albania / Thu 22 Dec, 2022

Key View

  • Having held its main policy rate at 2.75% in its December 21 rate setting meeting, we believe that the Bank of Albania will resume its hiking cycle in February 2023, with a terminal rate of 4.00% achieved in Q223.
  • Our present inflation trajectory forecasts additional tightening in H123, pushing consumer price inflation down from
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Tighter Monetary Policy Outlook For Albania

Country Risk / Albania / Thu 03 Nov, 2022

Key View:

  • On November 2, the Bank of Albania hiked its policy rate by 50.0bps to 2.75%, surprising our expectations (75bps to 3.00%) to the upside. In light of this relative dovishness, we are revising down our end-2022 forecast to 3.25%.
  • The central bank makes clear that it remains worried about high inflation and insufficient demand
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Strong 2021 Economic Rebound In Albania Intact

Country Risk / Albania / Mon 05 Jul, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Albania’s real GDP to grow by 5.7% in 2021, rebounding from a 3.3% contraction in 2020.
  • Post-earthquake reconstruction efforts will continue to underpin growth in gross fixed capital formation, which we expect to lead the recovery.
  • A tourism recovery over the course of the year
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