Yemen

In-depth country-focused analysis on Yemen's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Yemen

Our comprehensive assessment of Yemen's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Yemen, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Yemen's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Yemen before your competitors.

Country Risk

Yemen Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Uncertainty over the health of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, who has governed Oman since 1970, is bringing the succession question to the fore. We see major risks in the succession process. Governance is set to become more unpredictable in the future, and the Omani political system - with the Sultan enjoying all-encompassing powers - is largely unsustainable in its current form.

  • Tightening liquidity conditions, public spending cuts, and weak export growth will present headwinds for Oman's economy and corporate sector over 2016. Growth will weaken to 2.3% in real terms, compared to the annualised rate of 3.5% recorded between 2010 and 2014.

  • The fall in oil prices will leave Oman posting budget and current account deficits for...

Yemen Industry Coverage (3)

Defence & Security

Yemen Defence & Security

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BMI View: Yemen remains wholly reliant on defence imports to meet the requirements of its armed forces, as the country does not produce any military equipment domestically. Moreover, Yemen depends on foreign aid to fund defence procurement amid deteriorating economic conditions. Nevertheless, demand for military products remains strong in the country amid the ongoing conflict between pro-government forces and the Houthi-Saleh alliance, rising Islamist extremism and growing calls for southern independence. We expect Yemen to procure counterinsurgency equipment in the land and air segments over the short-to-medium term; however, in the long term it may seek to develop maritime capabilities in order to strengthen protection of strategic sea...

Infrastructure

Yemen Infrastructure

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BMI View: The declining security and political situation in Yemen has brought the economy to a virtual standstill. The ongoing civil war has put the precious hydrocarbons sector into meltdown, severely affecting public income. In an environment so hostile to investment, development and operations, we expect the construction sector to decline severely through to 2018, when a likely volatile recovery may begin.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We have further downgraded our growth outlook for the Yemeni construction and infrastructure industry this quarter -30.1% in 2015, -15.0% in 2016 and -6.9% in 2017. A slow and tentative recovery is expected thereafter.

  • The Yemeni hydrocarbons sector is at a virtual standstill, with pipelines and refineries under frequent attacks. In 2016 we expect the country to become a...

Oil & Gas

Yemen Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Yemen's security environment remains extremely fragile and the impact on the oil and gas industry has been severe. As of December 2015, Yemen's oil and gas industry remains largely at a stand-still, as the majority major oil and gas companies and facilities have suspended their operations due to security concerns. We expect above ground risks to continue to impact near-term production and challenge longer term efforts to boost investment.

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Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2024)
2014 2015f 2016f

Latest Yemen Articles

  • We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see price...

  • We believe that there is currently disconnect between oil prices and fundam...

  • Price-elastic consumption growth and more limited growth in supply will mai...

Latest Yemen Blogs

  • The tentative rapprochement between Iran and the US, which began in the sec...

  • The Middle East is at a critical juncture. The anticipated nuclear deal bet...

  • Four years after the start of the Arab Spring, the prospects for much of th...

Latest Yemen Podcasts

  • The rise of jihadist group Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq poses ...

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