Our comprehensive assessment of Yemen's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Yemen, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Yemen's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Yemen before your competitors.
Yemen Country Risk
Uncertainty over the health of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, who has governed Oman since 1970, is bringing the succession question to the fore. We see major risks in the succession process. Governance is set to become more unpredictable in the future, and the Omani political system - with the Sultan enjoying all-encompassing powers - is largely unsustainable in its current form.
The decline in oil prices will have a more severe impact on government and private consumption in Oman than in the rest of the GCC, given the country's fiscal vulnerabilities. We forecast the Omani economy to grow by 3.2% in real terms in 2015, down from an average rate of 3.5% between 2009 and 2012.
The fall in oil prices will leave Oman posting budget and...
Yemen Industry Coverage (2)
Defence & Security
Yemen Defence & Security
BMI is anticipating further turbulence in Yemen over the course of 2015, as President Hadi has faced significant challenges to his authority and as the government finds itself in a crisis following the Houthi's capture of the capital Sana'a in 2014. We think Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula may potentially exploit the crisis to seek out support in Sunni areas and note that AQAP has increased its attacks against the Yemeni military and international interests in the country.
Since September 2014, when the Houthi rebels took control of government institutions in Yemen, the political and security situation has deteriorated. We are not expecting improvement, but rather a worsening of the security climate. We do not see the Houthis - a highly trained and well armed militia - returning to their bases in the north of the country. We note that the...
BMI View: Yemen's infrastructure sector faces difficult conditions following the resignation of the President and high profile kidnappings by Shi'ite Houthis oppositions. Violent political clashes threaten to engulf the country and the likelihood of any significant investment in the near term is minimal. Real industry growth of just 3.9% is forecast in 2015 and an average of 3.2% over the forecast period until 2023.
Key Trends And...