The US is an undisputed superpower and occupies centre stage in most international diplomacy. It is the world's largest economy, with an impressive record of entrepreneurial dynamism and innovation, as well as high research and development spending. Despite some threats to its reserve status, the US dollar is treated as an international currency, meaning investors around the world are prepared to hold US debt. For this reason, the US is uniquely able to run large fiscal and current account deficits.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in the US, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 22 of the US’ most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our results-proven research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the game, so you can operate with confidence in the US.

Country Risk

United States Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • The US economy is set to grow at a more rapid pace in 2015, supported by lower oil prices, a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015, up from an estimated 2.5% in 2014. Over the long term, global headwinds and a rebound in imports will cap real GDP growth below historical standards.

  • A stronger real GDP growth outlook and a congress committed to reining in spending will see the US budget deficit continue to narrow in fiscal year 2015, to 2.7% of GDP. Beginning in 2016, the deficit will widen as rising interest rates increase debt servicing costs and mandatory spending obligations keep upward pressure on expenditures.

  • The US current account deficit will continue to narrow marginally in 2015, as lower fuel...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

United States Industry Coverage (22)

Agribusiness

United States Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: Production growth in corn was excellent in 2013/14 owing to record yields. However, farm incomes will be significantly lower given decreases in prices. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production growth in 2014/15, mainly owing to the poultry and pork sectors. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Autos

United States Autos

BMI View:

While our view that the light vehicle market would return to 16mn units in 2014 and that the light truck market would outperform still very much hold true, the strength of demand has surpassed initial expectations. With December sales expected to have continued the period of strong sales growth with more holiday discounts on offer and fuel prices trending lower, we have revised our full-year estimate slightly, with the total volume being largely unchanged but the growth projection reflecting the truck outperformance even more markedly. The passenger car element has been lowered slightly, to growth of 1.0% from 2.0% previously. We have revised up the light truck forecast from 8.0% to 9.0%.

The launch of several new models, including the new Ford F-150, the country's best-selling model, combined with sustained strength in the housing market as homebuilder confidence and permits continue to trend higher, will mean another strong year for light...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Commercial Banking

United States Commercial Banking

BMI View:

...
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Consumer Electronics

United States Consumer Electronics

BMI View:

BMI View : The US consumer electronics market is a global leader in terms of market size and adoption of the latest technology - with high penetration rates in most device categories. However, it has not been immune from the squeeze on key markets such as tablets, smartphones and digital cameras. Despite the maturity of the market BMI believes significant opportunities remain in emerging product categories, as well as the result of a high replacement rate in key categories such as smartphones. Growth areas include...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Defence & Security

United States Defence & Security

BMI View:

BMI View: We believe that the United States defence budget will be re-orientated to take account of the threat from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This will in our view stimulate procurement plans as the country can now focus on obtaining arms and technologies that might have previously been decided against due to austerity. The main focus of these procurements being the development of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter program, which has been hit by another delay.

ISIS is posing a major security risk to US allies in the Middle East, following its occupation of a considerable quantity of the northern regions of...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Food & Drink

United States Food & Drink

BMI View:

The US economy is set to grow at a more rapid pace in 2015, supported by lower oil prices, a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015, up from an estimated 2.5% in 2014. Over the long term, global headwinds and a rebound in imports will cap real GDP growth below historical standards.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption = +2.1%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019 = +4.1%.

  • 2015 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.2%; CAGR to 2019 = +3.4%.

  • 2015 soft drink value sales = +2.6%; CAGR to 2019 = +1.8%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales = +2.8%; CAGR to 2019 = +2.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Freight Transport

United States Freight Transport

BMI View:

BMI Vie w: We maintain our positive outlook for the US freight transport sector for 2015. The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.5% as deleveraging from a massive credit binge and demographic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.

With rising consumer confidence and a strengthening economy, we expect import demand to be robust in 2015. Nevertheless, we forecast that import growth will again fail to keep pace with export growth, in largely due to the collapse in the price of fuel, which will greatly reduce the US import bill. Although the US has seen domestic production of oil and gas resources climb...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Information Technology

United States Information Technology

BMI View:

BMI View: The outlook for US IT spending remains strong when compared to the majority of developed markets over the medium term, as a result of stronger economic performance and a greater interest from enterprises in the latest products and solutions. Cloud computing, real-time enterprise software, security and big data are all areas of spending in which we expect to see strong growth, particularly in the latter years of our forecast. The retail hardware outlook is more...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Infrastructure

United States Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: The US construction sector recovery will slow over our forecast period, with 1.6% real industry growth expected in 2015. The normalisation in growth will be a result of a normalisation in residential construction. The potential for a major ramp-up in infrastructure investment remains unlikely in the current fiscal and political climate; however, growing private investment provides a small boost to the transport segment.

Key Developments

  • The residential construction sector continues to expand. As expected, data has been and will continue to be mixed. However, overall the trend is for continued recovery in the sector. Housing starts, homebuilder confidence and permits are all trending higher, although starts...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Insurance

United States Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: We have a positive outlook for the US' overall insurance sector over the 2015-2019 period, and confirm steady growth in both the life and non-life segments. Consistently accounting for roughly 60% of the total premiums written, non-life insurance is set to drive the predominant share of the sector's overall growth, and will also slightly outpace the life segment. In particular, the non-life growth prospects are underpinned by ongoing economic recovery, relative absence of claims costs, as well as increased activity in particular sectors, including construction and pharmaceuticals. Overall, the US' insurance sector provides opportunities for future...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Medical Devices

United States Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI Industry View : The US medical market is forecast to see steady growth over the next five years, despite a projected slowdown in health spending, the impact of the newly introduced Medical Device Excise Tax and uncertainties within the healthcare system in the wake of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Imports have been growing in line with the market, which remains by far the world's largest. Exports are continuing to rise as US manufacturers seek out opportunities in emerging global markets.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • At an estimated USD125.4bn in 2013, the US medical device market is the world's largest. Per capita expenditure, at USD392, is the second highest in the world, behind...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Metals

United States Metals

BMI View:

BMI View:  The US metals sector will see modest growth over the next several years. Accelerating economic expansion will encourage metal production and consumption, but total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018.

Accelerating real GDP growth in the coming quarters will lead to modest growth in the metals sector. We now forecast real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015, up from our previous forecast of 2.6%, and estimate growth of...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Mining

United States Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: The US mining industry will be among the largest in the world as measured in total output in the years ahead, but will see just modest growth to 2019. Total industry value will reach USD136bn in 2019 as the country's stable economic and political environment, coupled with its long history of mining and its significant mineral reserves, enable sector expansion.

We forecast the US mining sector will see modest average annual growth, reflecting a broader trend among developed mining markets. For the period of 2015-2019, we forecast average annual growth of 1.5%. Ultimately, the majority of growth in both mineral output and mining investment in the Americas region will occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, accelerating US economic growth, including expansion in the automotive and broader manufacturing sectors, should ensure the overall mining and metals sector remains...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Oil & Gas

United States Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade. We forecast crude oil and NGLs production will rise from an estimated 12.9mn b/d in 2015 to 15.1mn b/d by 2024. High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period, reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude,...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Petrochemicals

United States Petrochemicals

BMI View:

The US petrochemicals industry saw a decline in resins output and sales in 2014, but with capacity growth set to abate until 2016 at the earliest, BMI expects tightening markets in 2015 that should help protect margins from foreign competition.

In the January-October 2014 period, resin output was down 2.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 28.1mn tonnes amid a spate of unplanned cracker outages. Nevertheless, output in several key chemistry end-use markets expanded, including automotive, construction and plastic products. After nearly five years, headline industrial production surpassed its previous peak. Recent resurgence in the industrial sector and balanced chemical inventories bodes well for future chemical production.

Capacity growth will be limited to the expansion of existing facilities with no new crackers expected until 2016 at the earliest. As such, the market will become tighter as 2015...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Power

United States Power

Real Estate

United States Real Estate

BMI View:

As the US economy continues its strong recovery, the commercial real estate market is profiting from an improving business environment, inflation rates and consumer confidence. Following robust growth in 2014, we expect 2015 to continue in similar lines, with new properties entering the market stabilising costs and vacancy rates in all sub-sectors and cities.

With a focus on the cities of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia, this report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the economy on a market that can dictate regional performance. In this respect, we generally expect the stable growth seen in 2014 to continue in 2015 with moderate-to-strong growth in all sectors. Reasons for this positive outlook are solid growth indicators of the wider US economy,...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Renewables

United States Renewables

BMI View:

BMI View: Growing private investment and the Obama administration's commitment to supportive environmental regulations continue to foster the prospects for renewable energy in the US. The wind sector will account for the majority of new capacity additions in 2015 and will remain the dominant renewable power source through 2024. However, protracted uncertainty surrounding the PTC scheme will keep the sector's development below potential. Conversely, we hold a bright outlook for the solar sector, as increasing private investment and the use of innovative...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Shipping

United States Shipping

BMI View:

BMI View: BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the US shipping sector. We believe 2015 will see the country's major facilities consolidate the growth seen in 2014. Our overall view that the US economy will continue to accelerate remains firmly in place. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015.

Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. We believe currency strength will discourage foreign customers from purchasing US-produced goods and services over the near term, while promoting an increase in imports. As a...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Telecommunications

United States Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : We expect the consolidation trend on the USA telecoms market to continue following a number of acquisitions in 2014. However, BMI cautions that one of the recent acquisitions - Comcast-Time Warner deal has yet to find regulatory approval. Adding to the already intense competition, mobile value added services provider Mariposa is preparing to launch an MVNO business and a newcomer to wireless sector DISH Network recently secured a large tranche at the spectrum auctions. Price-based competition will drag mobile ARPUs down over the 2014-2019 period and not even...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tourism

United States Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View : The BMI US tourism report highlights our positive view of the industry, which is benefiting from a growing domestic economy in addition to a well-developed hotel sector. We expect tourist arrivals to reach 63.95mn in 2015, up by 2.4% on the 2014 figure.

The US tourist industry is forecast to perform well in 2015, with overall economic growth of 2.9% leading to a corresponding growth in departures and industry value. While we note that arrivals from Europe will remain sluggish over the forecast period, due to a subdued economic...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login