The US is an undisputed superpower and occupies centre stage in most international diplomacy. It is the world's largest economy, with an impressive record of entrepreneurial dynamism and innovation, as well as high research and development spending. Despite some threats to its reserve status, the US dollar is treated as an international currency, meaning investors around the world are prepared to hold US debt. For this reason, the US is uniquely able to run large fiscal and current account deficits.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in the US, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 22 of the US’ most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our results-proven research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the game, so you can operate with confidence in the US.

Country Risk

United States Country Risk

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Core Views

  • The US economy is set to grow at a more rapid pace in 2015, supported by lower oil prices, a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015, up from 2.4% in 2014. Over the long term, global headwinds and a rebound in imports will cap real GDP growth below historical standards.

  • A stronger real GDP growth outlook and a congress committed to reining in spending will see the US budget deficit continue to narrow in fiscal year 2015, to 2.7% of GDP. Beginning in 2016, the deficit will widen Congress relaxes spending constraints put in place since 2011, rising interest rates increase debt servicing costs and mandatory spending obligations keep upward pressure on expenditures.

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United States Industry Coverage (23)

Agribusiness

United States Agribusiness

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BMI View: Production growth in corn was excellent in 2013/14 owing to record yields. However, farm incomes will be significantly lower given decreases in prices. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production growth in 2014/15, mainly owing to the poultry and pork sectors. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex...

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Autos

United States Autos

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We expect lower oil prices to continue supporting a preference for the light truck market within our forecast for light vehicle sales to grow 3.6% in 2015. Looking beyond this point, however, we expect growth to be much lower. The growth of recent years is becoming increasingly harder to replicate in a mature market as the 'recovery' phase should technically be closed after the return to 16mn units in 2014. At the same time, the average length of auto loans being taken out is increasing, which will keep consumers locked into their existing vehicle for longer. With this in mind, we expect sales growth for 2016 and 2017 to average 2.0%.

In terms of issues facing carmakers, strikes by West Coast port workers brought disruption to vehicle manufacturers in the early months of 2015, again highlighting our view that logistics will become an increasingly important area of focus in the sector. However, it also throws a spotlight on the...

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Commercial Banking

United States Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

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Consumer Electronics

United States Consumer Electronics

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BMI View : The US consumer electronics market is a global leader in terms of market size and adoption of the latest technology - with high penetration rates in most device categories. High penetration will lead to slower growth in some of the key markets such as tablets, smartphones and digital cameras. Despite the maturity of the market BMI believes significant opportunities remain in emerging product categories, as well as the result of a high replacement rate in key categories such as smartphones. Growth areas include large-size HD and UHD TV sets, smartphones, Microsoft Windows 8 convertibles/hybrids, Ultrabooks and smart TV sets. Meanwhile, tablet vendors are already reporting a slight slowdown in sales. However, over the medium...

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Defence & Security

United States Defence & Security

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BMI View: We believe that the United States defence budget will be re-orientated to take account of the threat from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This will in our view stimulate procurement plans as the country can now focus on obtaining arms and technologies that might have previously been decided against due to austerity. The main focus of these procurements being the development of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter program, which has been hit by another delay.

ISIS is posing a major security risk to US allies in the Middle East, following its occupation of a considerable quantity of the northern regions of Iraq and...

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Food & Drink

United States Food & Drink

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The US economy is set to grow at a more rapid pace in 2015, supported by lower oil prices, a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015, up from an estimated 2.5% in 2014. Over the long term, global headwinds and a rebound in imports will cap real GDP growth below historical standards.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption = +2.1%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019 = +4.1%.

  • 2015 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.2%; CAGR to 2019 = +3.4%.

  • 2015 soft drink value sales = +2.6%; CAGR to 2019 = +1.8%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales = +2.8%; CAGR to 2019 = +2.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

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Freight Transport

United States Freight Transport

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BMI Vie w: We maintain our positive outlook for the US freight transport sector for 2015. The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.5% as deleveraging from a massive credit binge and demographic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.

With rising consumer confidence and a strengthening economy, we expect import demand to be robust in 2015. Nevertheless, we forecast that import growth will again fail to keep pace with export growth, in largely due to the collapse in the price of fuel, which will greatly reduce the US import bill. Although the US has seen domestic production of oil and gas resources climb...

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Information Technology

United States Information Technology

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BMI View: The outlook for US IT spending remains strong when compared to the majority of developed markets over the medium term, as a result of stronger economic performance and a greater interest from enterprises in the latest products and solutions. Cloud computing, real-time enterprise software, security and big data are all areas of spending in which we expect to see strong growth, particularly in the latter years of our forecast. The retail hardware outlook is more mixed, as we...

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Infrastructure

United States Infrastructure

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BMI View: Growth will decelerate in the US construction sector over 2015 and 2016 in line with a normalisation of the housing market following a steep recover over recent years. Whilst infrastructure industry value will sustain its recovery it will not be enough to offset a slowdown.

Key Developments

  • The residential construction sector continues to expand. As expected, data has been and will continue to be mixed and growth is expected to slow over 2015. Housing starts, homebuilder confidence and permits are all trending higher, although starts have struggled to sustain levels above the 1mn mark. While the sector has come a long way since 2011, there is considerable room for further expansion as housing starts remain considerably below the peak of 2,273,000 in January 2006. Consequently, we forecast residential...

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Insurance

United States Insurance

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BMI View: We have a positive outlook for the US' overall insurance sector over the 2015-2019 period, and confirm steady growth in both the life and non-life segments. Consistently accounting for roughly 60% of the total premiums written, non-life insurance is set to drive the predominant share of the sector's overall growth, and will also slightly outpace the life segment. In particular, the non-life growth prospects are underpinned by ongoing economic recovery, relative absence of claims costs, as well as increased activity in particular sectors, including construction and pharmaceuticals. Overall, the US' insurance sector provides opportunities for future investment....

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Medical Devices

United States Medical Devices

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BMI Industry View : The US medical market is forecast to see steady growth over the next five years, despite a projected slowdown in health spending, the impact of the newly introduced Medical Device Excise Tax and uncertainties within the healthcare system in the wake of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Imports have been growing in line with the market, which remains by far the world's largest. Exports are continuing to rise as US manufacturers seek out opportunities in emerging global markets.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • At an estimated USD125.4bn in 2013, the US medical device market is the world's largest. Per capita expenditure, at USD392, is the second highest in the world, behind only...

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Metals

United States Metals

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BMI View:  The US metals sector will see modest growth over the next several years. Accelerating economic expansion will encourage metal production and consumption, but total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018.

Accelerating real GDP growth in the coming quarters will lead to modest growth in the metals sector. We now forecast real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015, up from our previous forecast of 2.6%, and estimate growth of 2.3% in 2014, up from...

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Mining

United States Mining

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BMI View: The US mining industry will be among the largest in the world as measured in total output in the years ahead, but will see just modest growth to 2019. Total industry value will reach USD136bn in 2019 as the country's stable economic and political environment, coupled with its long history of mining and its significant mineral reserves, enable sector expansion.

We forecast the US mining sector will see modest average annual growth, reflecting a broader trend among developed mining markets. For the period of 2015-2019, we forecast average annual growth of 1.5%. Ultimately, the majority of growth in both mineral output and mining investment in the Americas region will occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, accelerating US economic growth, including expansion in the automotive and broader manufacturing sectors, should ensure the overall mining and metals sector remains...

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Oil & Gas

United States Oil & Gas

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BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade. We forecast crude oil and NGLs production will rise from an estimated 12.9mn b/d in 2015 to 15.1mn b/d by 2024. High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period, reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude, and lower oil...

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Petrochemicals

United States Petrochemicals

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BMI View: The US petrochemicals industry saw a decline in resins output and sales in 2014, but with capacity growth set to abate until 2016 at the earliest, BMI expects tightening markets in 2015 that should help protect margins from foreign competition. Capacity growth will be limited to the expansion of existing facilities with no new crackers expected until 2016 at the earliest. As a result, the market will become tighter as 2015 progresses, pushing up spot prices.

Plastics manufacturers in the US from the Marcellus, Utica and other shale regions are counting on ethane processing plants to revive the industry from its slow-growth trend. The low-cost ethane acquired from shale drilling could help several plants which produce raw plastics, according to experts.

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Power

United States Power

Real Estate

United States Real Estate

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As the US economy continues its strong recovery, the commercial real estate market is profiting from an improving business environment, inflation rates and consumer confidence. Following robust growth in 2014, we expect 2015 to continue in similar lines, with new properties entering the market stabilising costs and vacancy rates in all sub-sectors and cities.

With a focus on the cities of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia, this report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the economy on a market that can dictate regional performance. In this respect, we generally expect the stable growth seen in 2014 to continue in 2015 with moderate-to-strong growth in all sectors. Reasons for this positive outlook are solid growth indicators of the wider US economy,...

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Renewables

United States Renewables

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BMI View: Growing private investment and the Obama administration's commitment to supportive environmental regulations continue to foster the prospects for renewable energy in the US. The wind sector will account for the majority of new capacity additions in 2015 and will remain the dominant renewable power source through 2024. However, protracted uncertainty surrounding the PTC scheme will keep the sector's development below potential. Conversely, we hold a bright outlook for the solar sector, as increasing private investment and the use of innovative financing...

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Retail

United States Retail

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BMI View: The US economy is set to see a more rapid pace of growth in 2015 than in 2014, supported by lower oil prices, a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015, up from an estimated 2.4% in 2014. Lower fuel prices and rising consumer confidence have both informed our view that private consumption will be a major driving force behind retail sector growth over the coming quarters.

The consumer sector will be a bright spot for the US economy over the coming quarters, due to falling unemployment, lower fuel prices (and by extension greater levels of disposable income), and rising incomes. Private consumption was revised up a full percentage point, to 3.2%, while measures of consumer confidence have reached their highest levels since early 2008, suggesting that this momentum will be maintained. Meanwhile, the end-2014 unemployment rate was just 5.6%, below our...

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Shipping

United States Shipping

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BMI View: BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the US shipping sector. We believe 2015 will see the country's major facilities consolidate the growth seen in 2014. Our overall view that the US economy will continue to accelerate remains firmly in place, and we forecast GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015.

The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.5% as deleveraging from a massive credit binge and demographic shifts take their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.

A stronger real GDP...

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Telecommunications

United States Telecommunications

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BMI View : We expect the consolidation trend on the USA telecoms market to continue following a number of acquisitions in 2014. However, BMI cautions that one of the recent acquisitions - Comcast-Time Warner deal has yet to find regulatory approval. Adding to the already intense competition, mobile value added services provider Mariposa is preparing to launch an MVNO business and a newcomer to wireless sector DISH Network recently secured a large tranche at the spectrum auctions. Price-based competition will drag mobile ARPUs down over the 2014-2019 period and not even AT...

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Tourism

United States Tourism

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BMI View : The BMI US tourism report highlights our positive view of the industry, which is benefiting from a growing domestic economy in addition to a well-developed hotel sector. We expect tourist arrivals to reach 63.95mn in 2015, up by 2.4% on the 2014 figure.

The US tourist industry is forecast to perform well in 2015, with overall economic growth of 2.9% leading to a corresponding growth in departures and industry value. While we note that arrivals from Europe will remain sluggish over the forecast period, due to a subdued economic outlook in these...

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