Content type

Winners And Losers: A New Ukrainian Economy Will Look Different

Country Risk / Ukraine / Wed 06 Mar, 2024

We retain our view that the economy will not return to its pre-war size until 2031. By pre-war we refer to the size of the economy in 2013, before Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan (NRP) assumes that Ukraine will achieve growth of 7% or higher over the next decade. We believe the NRP, released in 2022, did not

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Ukraine Returns To Growth, Forecasts Lifted For 2023 And 2024

Country Risk / Ukraine / Tue 26 Sep, 2023

Key View

  • According to data released by the Ukrainian State Statistics Service, in Q223 the economy grew by 19.5% year-on-year (0.8% quarter-on-quarter).
  • The continued strength in recovery of the Ukrainian economy has made us adjust up the growth forecasts for 2023 from 1.3% to 3.0% and from 3.6% to 4.1% in 2024.
  • Growth in Ukraine will
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Ukraine Grains Production Forecasts Raised As Favourable Weather Conditions Offset Planted Area Contraction

Agribusiness / Ukraine / Thu 24 Aug, 2023

Key View

  • We have raised our forecasts for Ukraine’s grain production during the 2023/24 season in light of favourable weather conditions. In line with recent estimates published by Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture, we now expect wheat production of 20.9mn tonnes and corn production of 28.1mn tonnes, a cumulative increase of 10.3mn tonnes.
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Implications Of Russia-Ukraine Grain Deal Collapse

Country Risk / Russia / Wed 19 Jul, 2023

On July 17 Russia formally withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) with Ukraine that was initially brokered in August 2022 by the UN and Turkiye. The deal saw the resumption of Ukraine’s seaborn grain exports via a secure maritime passage following the Russian invasion in February 2022. Since 2023, however, Russia’s involvement in

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