Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.
Turkmenistan Country Risk
Kazakhstan announced an ambitious privatisation programme, which is an important signal by the political establishment's willingness to embark on a market-friendly reform course. While high indebtedness and restructuring needs might impede swift implementation of the programme, it undoubtedly bodes well for the country's medium-to long-term economic development and diversification prospects.
President Almazbek Atambayev's Social Democratic Party (SDPK) will head the next government following the October 4 election, presaging continuity in economic and foreign policy. Its main challenges will be fighting corruption and mitigating externally generated economic headwinds caused by falling remittances and lower commodity prices.
Recent events in Tajikistan have confirmed our view that the deteriorating...
Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (5)
Defence & Security
Turkmenistan Defence & Security
BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...
BMI View: Turkmenistan's infrastructure and construction industry growth over the next decade will average 7.7% annually, with the value reaching USD9bn in 2024. The relatively small market will be driven by continued government spending and increasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and rail interconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts, particularly in the long term, are falling gas demand from China and Russia, increasing macroeconomic pressures amid falling gas revenues and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.
While the picture appears relatively bright, from an infrastructure project pipeline, overall country potential and government commitment to spending point of view, we are concerned with fundamental challenges to investing in the autocratic state, as well...
Oil & Gas
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas
BMI View : As a result of its growing gas reserves, Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increase production and exports, notably to China. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year, meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising export potential is supported by significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline.
BMI View: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will continue to rely on gas-fired power generation over our 10-year forecast period, as large gas supplies coupled with few export commitments will incentivise a continued ramp up in domestic gas consumption. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, will suffer from continued power generation shortfalls over the next decade, as the countries will have little progress in diversifying away from unreliable hydropower, or boosting the segment itself. The deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop - with China slowing down and Russia experiencing poor economic performance - will leave much to be desired for the Central Asian power sectors.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
BMI View: State interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the first six months of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned Mega C om and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-...