Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.
Turkmenistan Country Risk
The Kazakh government will prioritise aid to state companies over households in its policy response to declining public revenues from lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the pace of fiscal consolidation will fall short of eroding living standards to the extent that they destabilise the regime of President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
The collapse of Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbayev's cabinet in April has heightened regulatory and political uncertainty, casting a dark cloud on the country's mining sector and foreign direct investment outlook. A worsening balance of payments outlook will further ramp up downside pressure on the Kyrgyz som, which is already under pressure from weakening remittance inflows, further stoking inflation.
Severe summer flooding has already darkened the already subdued real GDP growth outlook for...
Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (3)
Defence & Security
Turkmenistan Defence & Security
BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...
Oil & Gas
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas
BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves, Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increase production. With relatively small domestic consumption, Turkmenistan is also likely to increase its gas exports. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year, meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising export potential is supported by significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, as well as likely lifting of sanctions from Iran.
BMI View: State interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the first six months of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned Mega C om and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-...