Turkmenistan

In-depth country-focused analysis on Turkmenistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Turkmenistan

Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Turkmenistan Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • The Kazakh economy is past the worst, with a rebound in oil prices offering support for the tenge, mitigating inflationary pressures, and allowing for monetary policy easing in the coming months.

  • Kyrgyzstan's economy will struggle to recover in the coming quarters despite the gradual rebound in commodity prices, which will materialise over this period. Regulatory and political uncertainty, subdued remittances from Russia, and weak external demand will keep a lid on the country's recovery.

  • Economic conditions in Tajikistan will continue to deteriorate despite a gradual rebound in commodity prices in the coming quarters. While a credit line arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will help the country avoid a balance of payments crisis, this will come at the expense of huge costs to the economy.

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Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (7)

Defence & Security

Turkmenistan Defence & Security

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BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...

Infrastructure

Turkmenistan Infrastructure

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BMI View: Turkmenistan's construction market will be driven by government spending and increasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and rail interconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts are falling gas demand from China and Russia, increasing macroeconomic pressures and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.

Forecast & Industry Developments

  • Construction industry growth will slow slightly in 2016 to 7.1% from 7.8% in 2015 and 9.6% in 2014 due to economic headwinds related to falling gas revenues. However, our 10-year forecast sees average annual growth of 8.3% and a value of TMT46.3bn (USD10.2bn) in 2025.

  • The key sectors for development will be those related to trade and the transit of...

Oil & Gas

Turkmenistan Oil & Gas

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BMI View : Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its limited export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notably TAPI) unlikely to materialise over our 10-year forecast period, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.

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Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f

Power

Turkmenistan Power

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BMI View: Gas-fired power will maintain its dominance in the Uzbek power mix over the next decade, as robust domestic gas production coupled with a lack of export opportunities will weaken the rationale for diversification. The country's economic downturn, due to weak commodity prices and external demand, will further erode the government's ability to support power sector expansion - meaning modernisation of ageing gas and hydropower assets will become the pillar of Uzbek energy strategy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central Asia, as Uzbekistan strongly opposes developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences.

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Turkmenistan Power

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BMI View: Gas-fired power will comprise close to all power generation in Turkmenistan over the next decade, given substantial domestic gas reserves and few gas export commitments. In order to leverage gas reserves, we expect the government to aim to expand the gas power sector and target electricity exports. That said, Turkmen plans to boost export revenues through a ramp-up in electricity exports to Afghanistan and Pakistan will face substantial headwinds, as security threats to power transmission infrastructure will remain elevated.

Headline Power Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f...

Telecommunications

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Central Asian telecommunications market as a whole. There are some growth opportunities in the region, particularly with regard to 3G and 4G technology Uptake. Nevertheless, state interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the course of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned MegaCom and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better...

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, government plays a pivotal role in driving telecoms sector development. In December 2015,Uzbekistan's Ministry for Development of Information Technologies and Communication announced plans to invest USD883.7mn over the coming four years in nine investment projects. This is in line with efforts to enhance broadband access by 2020. The projects will focus on developing HSPA+ and LTE networks, extending fixed and mobile infrastructure, including expanding backbone and transmission networks and installing fibre-optic lines as well as launching new multimedia services. Meanwhile, in Turkmenistan's much less competitive telecoms market, the...

Latest Turkmenistan Articles

  • An unsettled political and economic environment in the wake of the Brexit v...

  • Coal- and gas-fired power will be at the centre of energy policy in the CEE...

  • Multinational pharmaceutical interest will remain strong in Kazakhstan give...

Latest Turkmenistan Blogs

  • China's ambitious plan to build connections with Europe and the Middle East...

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