In-depth country-focused analysis on Turkmenistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.

Turkmenistan Country Risk

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Core Views

  • The Kazakh economy is past the worst, with a rebound in oil prices offering support for the tenge, mitigating inflationary pressures, and allowing for monetary policy easing in the coming months. Strong sovereign position will prevent a collapse of the banking system.

  • Kyrgyzstan's economy will struggle to recover in the coming quarters despite the gradual rebound in commodity prices and rebounding Russian growth. Nevertheless, regulatory and political uncertainty, subdued remittances from Russia, and weak external demand will keep a lid on the country's recovery.

  • Economic conditions in Tajikistan will continue to deteriorate despite a gradual rebound in commodity prices in the coming quarters. While a credit line arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will help the country avoid a balance of payments...

Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (7)

Turkmenistan Defence & Security

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BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...

Turkmenistan Infrastructure

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BMI View: Turkmenistan's construction market will be driven by government spending and increasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and rail interconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts are falling gas demand from China and Russia, increasing macroeconomic pressures and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.

Forecast & Industry Developments

  • Construction industry growth will slow slightly in 2016 to 7.1%, from 8.7% in 2015 and 9.6% in 2014 due to economic headwinds related to falling gas revenues. However, our 10-year forecast sees average annual growth of 8.1% and a value of TMT46.0bn (USD10.3bn) in 2025.

  • The key sectors for development will be those related to trade and the transit of...

Turkmenistan Oil & Gas

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BMI View : Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its limited export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notably TAPI) unlikely to materialise over our 10-year forecast period, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f

Turkmenistan Power

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BMI View: Gas-fired power will remain the dominant source of power in Uzbekistan over our 10-year forecast period through to 2025, as robust gas production and limited gas export opportunities weaken the government resolve to diversify the Uzbek power mix. The aim to privatise certain power assets to raise cash and spur investment, amid the country's economic malaise, will register limited success due to structural challenges muting investor interest for such assets.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Uzbekistan is currently attempting to undertake a privatisation of its power sector - whereby 10 construction firms operating under the umbrella of Uzbekenergo are to sell off 15% or more of their shares to foreign investors. We do not investor interest to be robust for power sector assets, as a result of a...

Turkmenistan Power

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BMI View: Gas-fired power will be Turkmenistan's only source of power generation over the next decade as robust gas production, substantial gas reserves and limited gas export outlets will do little to incentivise power mix diversification. The government will aim to boost gas-fired power to boost electricity exports, but we expect security threats to interconnections to limit the viability to such plans. With contracting sources of revenue, the government will be pressured to embark on a more austere energy agenda, which could put ambitious power sector expansion plans on halt.

Headline Power Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2021)
2015e ...

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Central Asian telecommunications market as a whole. There are some growth opportunities in the region, particularly with regard to 3G and 4G technology Uptake. Nevertheless, state interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the course of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned MegaCom and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better...

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, government plays a pivotal role in driving telecoms sector development. In December 2015,Uzbekistan's Ministry for Development of Information Technologies and Communication announced plans to invest USD883.7mn over the coming four years in nine investment projects. This is in line with efforts to enhance broadband access by 2020. The projects will focus on developing HSPA+ and LTE networks, extending fixed and mobile infrastructure, including expanding backbone and transmission networks and installing fibre-optic lines as well as launching new multimedia services. Meanwhile, in Turkmenistan's much less competitive telecoms market, the...

Latest Turkmenistan Articles

Latest Turkmenistan Blogs

  • China's ambitious plan to build connections with Europe and the Middle East...


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