Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.
Turkmenistan Country Risk
Kazakhstan's incumbent leader Nursultan Nazarbayev won by a landslide in presidential election on April 26 - winning 97.7% of the votes with a record turnout of 95.1% - prolonging for five more years his 24-year-long rule. While the election result will ensure policy continuity in the near term, the succession question will increasingly cloud the country's medium- to long-term socio-political outlook.
The worsening macro outlook for Central Asia will compound the issue of water supplies in the region. The latter, in turn, poses a major risk not only to our 2015 growth outlook for the region, but also to our medium- to long-term political stability and growth forecasts.
Although general elections in Tajikistan held on March 1 resulted in the landslide victory of President Emomali Rahmon's ruling People...
Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (3)
Defence & Security
Turkmenistan Defence & Security
BMI View: At present, Kazakhstan and the other four Central Asia countries, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have limited defence budgets, yet numerous requirements. While BMI expects these budgets to increase incrementally over the coming years, BMI also expects the budgetary and underdevelopment challenges to limit those increases considerably. These countries face numerous internal and external security challenges, including border disputes, criminality, and domestic and transnational terrorism.
BMI expects Kazakhstan's defence spending to have reached USD2.4bn by the end of 2014 and USD2.6bn by the end of 2015. While...
Oil & Gas
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas
BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves, Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increase production. With relatively small domestic consumption, Turkmenistan is also likely to increase its gas exports. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year, meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020.
BMI View: State interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the first six months of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned Mega C om and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-...