Turkmenistan
In-depth country-focused analysis on Turkmenistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Turkmenistan Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • We believe the deteriorating domestic demand outlook for Central Asia will make the region more susceptible to Islamist radicalisation. Out of the five Central Asian states - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, we believe the latter two to be most exposed to the threat of radicalisation.

  • We expect the Kyrgyz som to remain on a more gradual depreciatory trajectory in 2015 than its Tajik counterpart. The Kyrgyzstani economy faces more limited depreciatory pressure from falling remittance inflows and smaller inflation costs, while the authorities face higher political pressure than Tajikistan, underpinning our view.

  • Tajikistan's social and political scene will become increasingly unstable in the coming quarters, as the country grapples with the shock stemming from Russia's economic...

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Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (3)

Defence & Security

Turkmenistan Defence & Security

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BMI View:  At present, Kazakhstan and the other four Central Asia countries, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have limited defence budgets, yet numerous requirements. While BMI expects these budgets to increase incrementally over the coming years, BMI also expects the budgetary and underdevelopment challenges to limit those increases considerably. These countries face numerous internal and external security challenges, including border disputes, criminality, and domestic and transnational terrorism.

BMI expects Kazakhstan's defence spending to have reached USD2.4bn by the end of 2014 and USD2.6bn by the end...

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Oil & Gas

Turkmenistan Oil & Gas

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Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory, as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.3bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 6.8% per annum. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f...

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Telecommunications

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: Mobile number portability looks set to become a major trend throughout the Central Asian region, as a number of regulators look to introduce it. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have reached a saturation point in terms of mobile subscribers and the launch of MNP will facilitate increased competition between operators, encouraging innovative tariff plans and likely driving down ARPUs. MNP is less of a concern in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where organic growth prospects remain. Transitions to 3G will continue to be vital across the region and though 4G is available, it will remain too expensive for mass uptake. Government interference in the sector remains the key risk in the telecoms industry, however, and we tend to believe that this high risk outweighs the potential rewards at the time.

Key...

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