Turkmenistan

In-depth country-focused analysis on Turkmenistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Turkmenistan

Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Turkmenistan Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • The Kazakh economy is past the worst, with a rebound in oil prices offering support for the tenge, mitigating inflationary pressures, and allowing for monetary policy easing in the coming months.

  • Kyrgyzstan's economy will struggle to recover in the coming quarters despite the gradual rebound in commodity prices, which will materialise over this period. Regulatory and political uncertainty, subdued remittances from Russia, and weak external demand will keep a lid on the country's recovery.

  • Economic conditions in Tajikistan will continue to deteriorate despite a gradual rebound in commodity prices in the coming quarters. While a credit line arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will help the country avoid a balance of payments crisis, this will come at the expense of huge costs to the economy.

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Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (6)

Defence & Security

Turkmenistan Defence & Security

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BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...

Infrastructure

Turkmenistan Infrastructure

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BMI View: The small Turkmen construction market will be driven by continued government spending and increasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and rail interconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts are falling gas demand from China and Russia, increasing macroeconomic pressures and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Construction industry growth will slow slightly in 2016 to 7.6% from 8.3% in 2015 and 9.6% in 2014 due to economic headwinds related to falling gas revenues. However, our 10-year forecast sees average annual growth of 7.8% and a value of TMT44.5bn (USD10.0bn) in 2025.

  • The key sectors for development will be those related...

Oil & Gas

Turkmenistan Oil & Gas

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BMI View: We have strongly reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan this quarter on the back of increasingly limited export options for the country: Russia and Iran are curtailing imports and Chinese gas intakes will grow at a slower pace than expected on the back of slowing economic growth. This leaves Turkmenistan increasingly dependent on China, with little credible export market alternatives over the short-to-medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
2014e ...

Power

Turkmenistan Power

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BMI View: Gas-fired power will remain the dominant source of electricity in Uzbekistan as strong domestic gas production, limited gas export outlets and modernisation of ageing gas-fired power generating capacity will slow efforts to diversify the power mix. Economic headwinds will further weigh on power sector expansion, as plummeting prices for gold, cotton and copper will shrink export revenues significantly - representing a pertinent obstacle to an uptick in government-backed investment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central Asia, as Uzbekistan strongly opposes developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative...

Turkmenistan Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Turkmenistan will rely on gas-fired power generation over our 10-year forecast to 2025 as a result of substantial domestic gas supplies combined with few gas export commitments for the country. Growth in gas-fired power generation will boost electricity export potential for the country, but a lack of electricity export outlets will curb the potential for large-scale electricity exports.

Headline Power Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2021)
2015e ...

Telecommunications

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Central Asian telecommunications market as a whole. There are some growth opportunities in the region, particularly with regard to 3G and 4G technology Uptake. Nevertheless, state interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the course of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned MegaCom and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better...

Latest Turkmenistan Articles

  • With global growth continuing to stutter amid unconvincing growth performan...

  • A few key themes stand out when comparing BMI's forecasts against Bloomberg...

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

Latest Turkmenistan Blogs

  • China's ambitious plan to build connections with Europe and the Middle East...

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