Tunisia

In-depth country-focused analysis on Tunisia's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Tunisia

Tunisia is transitioning to a democratic political system, and is increasingly attracting our clients. Tunisia will be an economic outperformer in the North Africa region over the coming years, and foreign direct investment will return to the country as political stability improves. The country’s economy is well diversified, with its hugely important agricultural sector, strong manufacturing industries and a well-developed tourism sector.

We ensure our clients make sound investment decisions in Tunisia, using our risk-assessed total analysis model. Our teams keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Our expert views are supported by our interactive data and forecasting. We also provide in-depth analysis on four of Tunisia’s most important industries. Our analysts will make sure you are on top in Tunisia.

Country Risk

Tunisia Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • The outlook for the Tunisian economy has significantly deteriorated since the start of 2015, with the terrorist attacks recorded in March and June set to inflict significant damage on the vital tourism sector. We have slashed our growth forecasts: the Tunisian economy will expand by only 0.9% in real terms this year and 2.4% in 2016, a rate too low to address the country's socio-economic problems.

  • The March and June 2015 terrorist attacks on Tunisia's Bardo Museum and coastal city of Sousse highlight the country's acute vulnerability to radical Islamist groups across the Middle East and the Sahel. Tourism and investment confidence will both be hit, presenting new headwinds to economic activity. However, we expect the national unity government formed at the start of the year - which brings together secularists and moderate Islamists - to...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Tunisia Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View: Tunisia's logistics network is adequate and able to meet current demand. The country has relatively strong road connections, an open trade environment, and functional (if inconsistent) utilities supply. However, investors may be tempted to opt for other countries in the region, such as Israel, UAE or Bahrain, which offer smoother supply chains. The country's overall score of 58.3 out of 100 in the BMI Logistics Risk Index is above the global average; yet Tunisia ranks poorly from a regional perspective at 10th out of 19...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Crime & Security

BMI View:

Tunisia is generally a safe place for foreign business travellers, expatriate workers and tourists. However, the most significant security risk facing business operations is terrorism. The 2011 revolution has destabilised the country somewhat, resulting in politically and ideologically motivated attacks by some terrorist groups. While these are often not targeted at foreigners, there are some organisations that reject any form of Western influence and may be motivated to target areas popular with foreigners. Overall, Tunisia scores 40.9 out of 100 in the BMI Criminal and Security Risk Index, placing 10 th out of 18 states in the MENA region, between Israel and Morocco.

The country is taking significant steps to improve its counter-terrorism capability. This has included establishing a counter-terrorism agency that aims to monitor telecommunication and internet activity of suspected terrorists. The Tunisian...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Labour Market

BMI View:

Overall, Tunisia places in the middle of the regional pack with regards to Labour Market risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, despite low labour market participation, complex visa regulations and elevated labour tax posing the greatest risk to investors. While Tunisia scores favourably in terms of education, its literacy rate is still one of the lowest in the region, with high dropout rates preventing a number of Tunisians from gaining basic skills, such as numeracy. Overall, we give Tunisia a Labour Market Risk rating of 47 out of 100, placing it in 10th place out of 18 countries in the region.  

Relative to the region, Tunisia is hampered by a scarcity of labour.. This is due to a high rural population and low female participation in the workforce that drives down the size of the labour pool and limits the skills of those available. Furthermore, although Tunisia boasts second highest primary school...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Logistics

BMI View:

Tunisia's logistics network is adequate and able to meet current demand. The country has relatively strong road connections, an open trade environment, and functional (if inconsistent) utilities supply. However, investors may be tempted to opt for other countries in the region, such as Israel, UAE or Bahrain, which offer smoother supply chains. The country's overall score of 53.5 out of 100 in the BMI Logistics Risk Index is above the global average, yet ranks poorly from a regional perspective at 11th out of 18 states, between Kuwait and Lebanon.

Tunisia is overly-reliant on thermal energy sources such as oil and gas. This problem is compounded by Tunisia's dwindling supply of its own fuel resources and need to import, which is driving up the cost of electricity and fuel. While investment in renewable energy sources should help to drive down energy costs in the long term (beyond 2018), investors for the moment face...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Trade & Investment

BMI View:

Tunisia operates a relatively open economic environment and welcomes foreign investment in almost all sectors. Investors stand to benefit from the country's openness to trade and investment in terms of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), access to financial markets and low levels of red tape. The principal drag on Tunisia's score is its fiscal and trade barriers. The country has low levels of government expenditure as a percentage of GDP and high levels of trade bureaucracy, such as tariff and non-tariff barriers. As a result, Tunisia scores well in our Trade and Investment Risk Index with a score of 54.9 out 100, which places the country seventh out of 18 states in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, between Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Tunisia welcomes FDI in almost all sectors of its economy, offers tax incentives to foreign investors, and operates a number of free trade zones, the largest of which is the Bizerte Harbor Free Trade...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Tunisia Autos

BMI View:

Looking at early sales trends for 2015, the issue of 'parallel market sales' (ie, cars that have not been bought from official dealerships) has become significant for Tunisia. The total number of cars that entered the Tunisian market over 4M15 stands at 23,296 units, according to a May 2015 report by the Businessnews.com.tn website. However, of this total, only 14,447 units were official new car sales.

Given that, then official new car sales are down by 11% year-on-year (y-o-y) over 4M15. However, imports through the parallel market saw an increase of 2.8% y-o-y, to 8,849 units. As BMI chooses to concentrate on official new car sales via our data sets, we have therefore decided to revise down our 2015 new car sales forecasts significantly, to reflect this increasing parallel market substitution and its adverse impact on official data. We are now targeting a 4.7% fall in new vehicle sales over 2015, to...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Food & Drink

Tunisia Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: The outlook for Tunisia's economy has significantly deteriorated since the start of 2015, with strong headwinds blowing across the country's key growth drivers. The tourism industry, a vital source of jobs and wealth creation, will remain crippled by the two high-profile terrorist attacks: on Tunis' Bardo Museum in March and the coastal city of Sousse in June. Elsewhere, fiscal consolidation efforts and weak growth prospects for the primary sector will limit Tunisia's economic performance. Reflecting these headwinds, our Middle East and North Africa Country Risk team has slashed our growth forecasts, which see the Tunisian economy expanding in real terms by only 0.9% this year before staging a modest recovery to 2.4% in 2016, compared to our previous projections of 2.9% and 3.4% respectively. Therefore, we have revised down our food consumption growth...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Insurance

Tunisia Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View : We see significant potential in North Africa for insurers. However, continued economic constraints will hamper the full development of the sector over the short term, particularly the non-life segment. That being said, strong government impetus in much of the region to augment health insurance density will boost penetration over the medium term. However, we continue to expect life insurance will underperform in comparison to non-life insurance, owing to the disinclination among much of the population to purchase life insurance policies when household budgets are tight....

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tunisia Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: The ongoing civil war in Libya is likely to ensure that that country's insurance sector remains at an embryonic level of development at the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the latest terrorist attacks in mid-July on tourists in Tunisia will have a serious impact on the country's tourism sector. For now, we assume that the impact on the economy in general (and the insurance sector in particular) will be limited. Tunisia's non-life segment should benefit from the growth in real GDP. In the short term, motor vehicle insurers should benefit from the officially mandated increase in rates for CMTPL...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Oil & Gas

Tunisia Oil & Gas

BMI View:

...
Headline Forecasts (Tunisia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Telecommunications

Tunisia Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : Markets in North Africa are quickly evolving from being voice-centric towards becoming data-centric, with mobile broadband being the core driver in all markets. 3G services have been launched with success in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, and the licensing and roll-out of 4G services is also on track. Success is dependent on the overall macroeconomic situation, with higher purchasing power helping with the development of the telecoms market, while the security situation is always at the forefront in the region. All markets have a mix of public and private operators, though liberalisation is not present in all sectors, and the competition has always driven greater uptake in the region...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Latest Tunisia Articles

Latest Tunisia Blogs

Latest Tunisia Podcasts