Trinidad & Tobago

In-depth country-focused analysis on Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Trinidad & Tobago

Our comprehensive assessment of Trinidad & Tobago's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Trinidad & Tobago's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Trinidad & Tobago before your competitors.

Country Risk

Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Structurally lower crude oil prices will stymie activity in Trinidad & Tobago's energy sector over the coming years, driving a slowdown in headline growth. Moreover, tepid consumer confidence and a pull-back in government spending on infrastructure projects indicate that growth in non-energy sectors of the economy will also struggle.

  • Trinidad & Tobago's 2015 general election will be narrowly contested, as a notable increase in homicides depresses support for the ruling coalition. We expect this issue will ultimately drive the opposition People's National Party into power.

  • Trinidad & Tobago's nominal budget shortfall will widen in 2015, as lower oil prices drive down energy sector revenues. The Trinidadian government will reduce expenditures, but not enough to stem fiscal deterioration...

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Trinidad & Tobago Industry Coverage (5)

Food & Drink

Trinidad & Tobago Food & Drink

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BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The large decline in the price of oil over the last nine months will boost the region's consumer spending, as the Caribbean is a large net oil importer. Inflation will remain low, which will help food consumption growth over the coming years. That said, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted, which limits general investment. We believe that general food...

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Trinidad & Tobago Insurance

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BMI View: Currency weakness will suppress dollar terms growth rates across much of the region through 2015, with structural performance more positive. Offshore business in the Cayman Islands and Barbados dwarfs the region's domestic markets which are largely underdeveloped, particularly in most life sectors and in the Dominican Republic. Health insurance is set to be the main growth area across the region over the next five years.

The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers,...

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Oil & Gas

Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Confirmation that authorities plan a new upstream bidding round by early 2016 reinforces the positive outlook for upstream investment, which could reverse the current downward trend forecast for both oil and gas. Persistent shortages of natural gas will continue to weigh on the sector and industry, though new supplies from the latter half will improve but not necessarily eliminate the shortfall.

Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2019)
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Trinidad & Tobago Telecommunications

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BMI View: The announcement of the IPO by pan-Caribbean operator Digicel bodes well for the future of the region, with additional funds raised for investment in next-generation networks, converged services and further market expansion. However, it also demonstrates the saturated nature of the telecoms industry in the Caribbean, with revenue and subscriber growth flattening. A key downside risk is the company's exposure to weak consumer spending trends in its core markets, an issue that could undermine investor confidence further down the line. Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are significantly underdeveloped compared to their peers. However, the risks associated with business in these two markets mean that a mobile subscription boom is far from likely.


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Trinidad & Tobago Tourism

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BMI View: The ongoing economic uptick in the US will translate into rising departures to the Caribbean in 2015, with St Lucia, St Eustatius, the Cayman Islands and Cuba set to perform particularly well. We see particular opportunities in Cuba, with the US-Cuba diplomatic rapprochement boosting prospects for a relaxation of the bilateral tourist regime.

We forecast mixed fortunes for the Caribbean in 2015, with most islands seeing growth in tourist arrivals but a few registering declines. The latter include Barbados (0.6%), Bonaire (6.1%), the Dominican Republic (1.5%) and St Vincent (1.6%). We believe that these declines reflect the drop of 1.2% in arrivals from Europe in 2015, with these economies usually registering strong arrivals from Europe. However, overall the Caribbean will see a net increase in tourist arrivals in 2015, as improving consumer confidence in the US leads more US tourists to visit the region,...

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