Trinidad & Tobago

In-depth country-focused analysis on Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Trinidad & Tobago

Our comprehensive assessment of Trinidad & Tobago's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Trinidad & Tobago's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Trinidad & Tobago before your competitors.

Country Risk

Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)'s economy will see weak economic activity growth in the coming years, as persistently weak oil prices weigh on consumption, investment and net exports. Low oil prices will compound the country's hydrocarbon sector poor production outlook, while non-oil industries will struggle to become competitive.

  • The government will post consistent fiscal deficits, as low oil prices weigh on revenue collection. Expenditure cuts will be limited, as the government seeks to support economic activity.

  • Lower oil prices will place depreciatory pressure on the Trinidadian dollar (TTD) over the coming quarters, resulting in a deterioration of the country's terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Open market operations by the central bank will prevent a significant depreciation of the...

Trinidad & Tobago Industry Coverage (5)

Food & Drink

Trinidad & Tobago Food & Drink

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BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The Dominican Republic and Jamaica will outperform other regional markets over the next five years. Nonetheless, small consumer bases will limit long-term investment opportunities.

Dominican Republic The Regional Outperformer
Select Countries - Food Sales Growth (% chg y-o-y, USD terms)
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Insurance

Trinidad & Tobago Insurance

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BMI View: Currency weakness will continue to plague the dollar terms returns of many of the Caribbean insurance sectors covered in this report. Offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, amounting to around USD45bn annually, dwarf the domestic sectors in the region. Health insurance, an underdeveloped line of business, is likely to outperform in many of these markets over the five-year forecast period.

The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...

Oil & Gas

Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Officials with Trinidad and Tobago's new government have expressed increasing alarm over declining reserves and production of both oil and gas. The outlook remains bearish until 2018 amid shortages of gas supplies that have affected exports. Though Trinidad and Tobago remains prospective, it is unclear when supplies will materialise, suggesting continued challenges to both the upstream and downstream sector.

Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f ...

Telecommunications

Trinidad & Tobago Telecommunications

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BMI View: Digicel's eventual initial public offering (IPO) plans bode well for the future of the Caribbean regional telecommunications market as additional funds raised in the initial stock offering will allow investment into next-generational networks and help expand the market further. While IPO plans are presently on hold at the eleventh hour, it also demonstrates the saturated nature of the telecoms industry in the Caribbean, with revenue and subscriber growth flattening. A key downside risk is the company's exposure to weak consumer spending trends in its core markets, an issue that could undermine investor confidence further down the line. Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are...

Tourism

Trinidad & Tobago Tourism

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BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.7% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016.

We hold a positive outlook on the Caribbean tourism market in 2016, with growth of 2.7% marking an improvement after the lower growth rate of 1.7% in 2015. This arrivals growth is led by strong arrivals from North America and particularly from Europe. European arrivals declined in 2015 and a return to growth in 2016 will bring benefits in terms of tourist expenditure, as well as encouraging more longer-term investment. Moreover, the rebound in European tourism to the Caribbean underlines the resilience of the region's market, which remains a highly popular destination despite its relative expense....

Latest Trinidad & Tobago Articles

  • We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see price...

  • We believe that there is currently disconnect between oil prices and fundam...

  • Price-elastic consumption growth and more limited growth in supply will mai...

Latest Trinidad & Tobago Blogs

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