Our comprehensive assessment of Trinidad & Tobago's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Trinidad & Tobago's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Trinidad & Tobago before your competitors.
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk
Structurally lower crude oil prices will stymie activity in Trinidad & Tobago's energy sector over the coming years, driving a slowdown in headline growth. Moreover, tepid consumer confidence and a pull-back in government spending on infrastructure projects indicate that growth in non-energy sectors of the economy will also struggle.
Trinidad & Tobago's nominal budget shortfall will widen in 2015, as lower oil prices drive down energy sector revenues. The Trinidadian government will not reduce expenditures as it will look to support household spending as labour market dynamics deteriorate.
Lower oil prices will place depreciatory pressure on the Trinidadian dollar (TTD) over the coming quarters, resulting in a deterioration of the country's terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Open market...
Trinidad & Tobago Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Trinidad & Tobago Food & Drink
BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The large decline in the price of oil over the last year will boost the region's consumer spending, as the Caribbean is a large net oil importer. Inflation will remain low, which will help food consumption growth over the coming years. That said, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted, which limits general investment...
Trinidad & Tobago Insurance
BMI View: Currency weakness will continue to plague the dollar terms returns of many of the Caribbean insurance sectors covered in this report. Offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, amounting to around USD45bn annually, dwarf the domestic sectors in the region. Health insurance, an underdeveloped line of business, is likely to outperform in many of these markets over the five-year forecast period.
The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...
Oil & Gas
Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas
BMI View: Weak production figures for both oil and gas demonstrate the need for new investment ahead of a planned licensing round due to take place by early-2016. Although authorities plan to offer fiscal incentives, the energy ministry has expressed concerns over a possible decline in exploration and production activity on the back weak global oil prices. Shortages of natural gas supplies are expected to weigh on consumption and exports at least until 2017, and possibly further.
Trinidad & Tobago Telecommunications
BMI View: Digicel's IPO plans bode well for the future of the Caribbean regional telecommunications market as additional funds raised in the initial stock offering will allow investment into next-generational networks and help expand the market further. However, it also demonstrates the saturated nature of the telecoms industry in the Caribbean, with revenue and subscriber growth flattening. A key downside risk is the company's exposure to weak consumer spending trends in its core markets, an issue that could undermine investor confidence further down the line. Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are significantly underdeveloped compared to their peers. However, the risks associated with business in these two markets mean that a mobile subscription boom is far from likely.
Trinidad & Tobago Tourism
BMI View: The ongoing economic uptick in the US will translate into rising departures to the Caribbean in 2015, with St Lucia, St Eustatius, the Cayman Islands and Cuba set to perform particularly well. We see particular opportunities in Cuba, with the US-Cuba diplomatic rapprochement boosting prospects for a relaxation of the bilateral tourist regime.
The Caribbean is a popular tourist market, attracting high numbers of visitors from North America and Europe. Its many beaches and islands have encouraged the development of a high-end, resort-led accommodation sector, with very few budget alternatives on offer. For this reason, the Caribbean is a relatively expensive destination and can be vulnerable to economic fluctuations in its major source markets. In addition, transport infrastructure is lagging behind hotel infrastructure, although we note that there are several major airport expansion projects under way....