Our comprehensive assessment of Trinidad & Tobago's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Trinidad & Tobago's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Trinidad & Tobago before your competitors.
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk
Structurally lower crude oil prices will stymie activity in Trinidad & Tobago's energy sector over the coming years, driving a slowdown in headline growth. Moreover, tepid consumer confidence and a pull-back in government spending on infrastructure projects indicate that growth in non-energy sectors of the economy will also struggle.
Trinidad & Tobago's 2015 general election will be narrowly contested, as a notable increase in homicides depresses support for the ruling coalition. We expect this issue will ultimately drive the opposition People's National Party into power.
Trinidad & Tobago's nominal budget shortfall will widen in 2015, as lower oil prices drive down energy sector revenues. The Trinidadian government will reduce expenditures, but not enough to stem fiscal deterioration...
Trinidad & Tobago Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Trinidad & Tobago Food & Drink
BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers are picking up and growth is stronger in key western states such as the US. The large decline in the price of oil over the last nine months will boost the region's consumer spending, as the Caribbean is a large net oil importer. Inflation will remain low which will help food consumption growth over the coming years. That said, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted which limits general investment. We believe that general food consumption growth will be strongest in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. In the Dominican Republic's case, food consumption is coming off of a very low base. Ongoing recession in Puerto Rico, one of the region'...
Trinidad & Tobago Insurance
BMI View: Apparent slow growth in the region during 2015 is generally the result of continued USD strength, rather than structural weaknesses in the insurance sector. While offshore business, principally in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, may steal the headlines, domestic business is typically under-developed in both life and non-life lines. International players barely feature in the region, deterred by small market sizes and the strength of leading regional players who control large portions of most markets.
The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and Canada. The ongoing recovery in both of these should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...
Oil & Gas
Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas
BMI View: Trinidad & Tobago has benefitted from strong upstream investment and this trend is expected to continue over the forecast period and could even increase should additional incentives materialise. Though we continue to forecast declines in reserves that will see supply shortfalls persist, we note the upside from both exploration and potential development of cross-border fields.
Trinidad & Tobago Telecommunications
BMI View: Our expectation for major changes in the Caribbean has already begun to play out, with the news that CWC will need to sell its 49% stake in operator Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago (TSTT). This means the market is looking at a significant shake-up, one of many that will take place in the region. The CWC acquisition of Columbus International will have a far-reaching regional impact in the broadband internet and pay-TV markets, which remain underdeveloped and ripe for growth and is already affecting regulatory environments in other markets. In response to the acquisition we expect acquisition...
Trinidad & Tobago Tourism
BMI View: The ongoing economic uptick in the US will translate into rising departures to the Caribbean in 2015, with St Lucia, St Eustatius, the Cayman Islands and Cuba set to perform particularly well. We see particular opportunities in Cuba, with the US-Cuba diplomatic rapprochement boosting prospects for a relaxation of the bilateral tourist regime.
We forecast mixed fortunes for the Caribbean in 2015, with most islands seeing growth in tourist arrivals but a few registering declines. The latter include Barbados (0.6%), Bonaire (6.1%), the Dominican Republic (1.5%) and St Vincent (1.6%). We believe that these declines reflect the drop of 1.2% in arrivals from Europe in 2015, with these economies usually registering strong arrivals from Europe. However, overall the Caribbean will see a net increase in tourist arrivals in 2015, as improving consumer confidence in the US leads more US tourists to visit the region,...