Telecommunications

Whether you’re a network operator, service provider, content developer/owner, financial professional or government representative, we show you how and where business risks are most concentrated and highlight investment opportunities waiting to be taken in global Telecommunications markets.

Views

BMI View: The most likely outcome of discussions between the NCC and MTN Nigeria on its USD5.2bn fine is a compromise on less than half the original figure. This would also be the best outcome for the telecoms sector and the wider economy, ensuring the NCC can regulate from a position of strength, while reducing the risk of the government targeting telecoms operators in other ways for additional revenue, and alleviating investors' fears of similar fines in other industries. – 3 November 2015

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Result

We projected a 60% chance of MTN Nigeria and the government agreeing on a reduction of the original fine of USD5.2bn (for failing to disconnect unregistered SIMs) to less than USD2bn, but more than USD520mn. This was part of a wider view that the operating environment in Nigeria's telecoms sector had become less predictable for investors. 

In June 2016, it was agreed that the operator would pay a fine of NGN330bn (USD1.671bn) over a period of three years. MTN and Etisalat curbed investment into Nigeria in 2015, supporting our view of policy uncertainty deterring investment. 

Reports

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